新疆棉花产业现状及其影响因素分析与对策

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.21.006

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper systematically reviewed the development status and key influencing factors of the cotton industry in Xinjiang, aiming to provide the decision-making references for industrial transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development. Based on statistical data from 2014 to 2025 and authoritative public sources, a multidimensional analysis was conducted along the entire industrial chain—covering cotton cultivation, processing, and textiles—and encompassing natural resources, technological progress, policies and institutions, the market environment, and socio-economic conditions, thereby identifying the core factors and their mechanisms in each dimension. The results indicated that in 2025, total cotton output in Xinjiang reached 6.165 million tons, with high-quality cotton accounting for 72.3%, forming an industrial development pattern characterized by “continuous expansion in scale, stable spatial distribution, and simultaneous quality improvement”. Benefiting from the agglomeration effect of the relocation of the textile industry from eastern China to Xinjiang, a complete cotton industrial chain integrating cultivation, spinning, weaving, dyeing, and garment manufacturing has been established, with the gross output value of the entire chain exceeding 220 billion yuan; the scale of the textile industry has continued to expand, and the share of locally produced cotton processed within Xinjiang has steadily increased. The influencing factors were interdependent and mutually restrictive. Although water resources impose rigid constrained on the scale of the industry, Xinjiang possesses unique natural resource advantages in sunlight and land, and was strongly supported by technological and policy assistance—notably, the cotton target price subsidy has formed a stable “fixed every three years” mechanism that promoted industrial transformation. Currently, Xinjiang's cotton industry still lacks pricing dominance and industry influence in international markets, facing both opportunities and challenges in the international competitive and trade environment, while cotton cultivation costs continue to rise.The Xinjiang cotton industry was at a critical stage of profound transformation from a “scale-expansion model” to a “quality-efficiency model”. To achieve the 2026 regulatory target of a cotton planting area of (240±3.3)×10⁴ hm², under the premise of prioritizing the interests of basic farming households, efforts should focus on reducing low-quality and low-efficiency cotton fields, areas of groundwater over-extraction, and illegally reclaimed land. It was also recommended to synergistically strengthen technological empowerment, improve the policy system, promote green transformation, and expand international markets, thereby striving to build a modern full industrial system of cotton cultivation and textile and apparel that was the world’s largest in scale, most complete in chain, and leading in quality and efficiency, and driving the Xinjiang cotton industry toward higher quality and greater sustainability.

Key words: Xinjiang cotton, industrial development status, influencing factors, high-quality development, whole industrial chain

TIAN LiWen, ZHANG Sheng, TIAN CongHua, MA Ting, CUI JianPing, FANG YanFei, LUO HongHai, LOU ShanWei. Analysis and Countermeasure of Xinjiang Cotton Industry Status and Its Influencing Factors[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(21): 4784-4801.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

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Fig. 1

Table 4

Analytical framework for factors influencing Xinjiang's cotton industry development"

维度 Dimension	主要因素 Main factor	作用机制 Mechanism of action
自然资源 Natural resources	受光热条件、水土资源、气候变化约束 Constraints imposed by solar thermal conditions, water and soil resources, and climate change	奠定产业发展的基本条件，界定生产活动的资源边界 Establish the fundamental conditions for industrial development and delineate the resource boundaries for production activities
技术进步 Technological progress	良种研发推广、机械化智能化装备应用、栽培技术创新 Research and promotion of improved varieties, application of mechanized and intelligent equipment, and innovation in cultivation techniques	突破资源约束瓶颈，提升生产效率与产品质量 Break through the bottleneck of resource constraints and enhance production efficiency and product quality
政策制度 Policy regime	目标价格补贴、种植规模调控、纺织产业扶持政策 Target price subsidies, regulation of planting scale, and supportive policies for the textile industry	引导资源优化配置，形成产业发展的合理激励与约束机制 Guide the optimal allocation of resources and form a reasonable incentive and restraint mechanism for industrial development
市场环境 Market environment	棉花价格波动、下游消费需求变化、国际竞争与贸易环境 Cotton price fluctuations, changes in downstream consumer demand, international competition and trade environment	影响甚至决定产业市场竞争力与价值实现路径，以及产业发展效益与空间 Influence and even determine the competitiveness and value realization path of the industrial market, as well as the benefits and space for industrial development
社会经济 Socioeconomic	劳动力成本与供给、作物比较效益、就业吸纳能力 Labor cost and supply, comparative benefits of crops, and employment absorption capacity	筑牢产业发展的社会基础，影响产业可持续发展能力 Build a solid social foundation for industrial development and influence the sustainable development capacity of the industry

Table 4

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Table 7

Comparison of strengths and weaknesses in cotton production in India, the United States, and Australia under international competition and trade conditions"

国家 Country	优势 Advantage	劣势 Disadvantage
印度 India	品种资源丰富，官方发布184个作物新品种。劳动力资源丰富且成本低，生产成本约1.86美元/kg，手工采摘费约0.106美元/kg，纺织业平均时薪约0.38美元。约占全球棉花出口比8%，政府提供最低支持价格（MSP），保障了棉农收益。传统手工采摘有助于减少棉花加工时纤维机械损伤，含杂率<2%，回潮率<8% The country boasts abundant variety resources, with 184 new crop varieties officially released. It also enjoys abundant labor resources at a low cost, with a production cost of approximately $1.86/kg, a manual harvesting fee of about $0.106/kg, and an average hourly wage in the textile industry of about $0.38. The country accounts for approximately 8% of global cotton exports, and the government provides a minimum support price (MSP) to safeguard the income of cotton farmers. Traditional manual harvesting reduces mechanical damage to cotton fibers during processing, with a trash content of less than 2% and a moisture regain of less than 8%	转基因技术长期未更新，新品种商业化需2—3年，转化慢。高度依赖人工，限制规模化发展，再加上棉田管理水平低，以及多地出现劳动力短缺问题，单产低（约435 kg·hm^-2）推高了单位成本，国内棉价有时高于国际棉价。品质一致性差，污染和不洁操作使价值损失15%—20% Genetic modification technology has not been updated for a long time, and it takes 2-3 years for new varieties to be commercialized, resulting in slow transformation. It is highly dependent on manual labor, which limits large-scale development. Coupled with low management levels in cotton fields and labor shortages in many places, low yields (about 435 kg·hm^-2) have pushed up unit costs, and domestic cotton prices are sometimes higher than international cotton prices. Poor quality consistency, pollution, and unclean operations cause a loss of 15%— 20% in value
美国 America	转基因技术领先，普及率极高，2024年转基因棉花品种覆盖率达93%。机械化率100%，劳动力投入仅为中国人工成本的1/5；据2023年的数据，美国生产50 kg皮棉仅需0.5个工作日，机械采摘成本约1200元/hm²，生产成本约83美分/磅，约占全球棉花出口比35.8%，纤维品质类型丰富，且一致性和可纺性好 With leading transgenic technology and an extremely high penetration rate, the coverage of transgenic cotton varieties reached 93% in 2024. The mechanization rate stands at 100%, and labor input is only 1/5 of China's labor cost. According to data from 2023, it takes only 0.5 working days to produce 50 kg lint cotton in the United States, with a mechanical harvesting cost of about 80 yuan per 666.67 m² and a production cost of about 83 cents per pound	种植成本不断攀升，单产水平约885 kg·hm^-2，棉农仍面临亏损，棉农严重依赖作物保险和补贴来弥补损失。虽然美棉有完善的分级体系和持续现代化的管理技术，但频繁的天气变化使其品质稳定性受到挑战，全球市场的份额受到巴西棉挑战 The cost of cultivation continues to rise, with a yield level of approximately 885 kg·hm^-2. Cotton farmers still face losses, heavily relying on crop insurance and subsidies to compensate for their losses. Despite the well-established grading system and continuously modernized management techniques of U.S. cotton, frequent weather changes challenge its quality stability, and its global market share is threatened by Brazilian cotton
澳大利亚 Australia	具有“国家级”科研体系，品种精，单产水平高，约2010 kg/hm²；纤维高品质、高一致性，纤维长度28—32 mm，纤维强度普遍在29 cN/tex以上，马克隆值适中（3.5—4.9），非常适合纺60支、80支以上的中高支包漂纱。100%的机械化收获，较高的用水效率，总生产成本7000—8000澳元/hm²，约占全球棉花出口量的8% It boasts a "national-level" scientific research system, featuring refined varieties and high yield levels, approximately 2010 kg·hm^-2; high-quality and consistent fibers, with fiber length ranging from 28-32 mm, fiber strength generally above 29 cN/tex, and a moderate micronaire value (3.5-4.9), making it highly suitable for spinning medium and high-count yarn with counts of 60 and 80 or more. It achieves 100% mechanized harvesting, high water use efficiency, and a total production cost of 7000-8000 Australian dollars per hectare, accounting for approximately 8% of global cotton exports	需在品种研发、灌溉系统、精准农业技术上进行持续的巨额投入，棉花产业高度依赖灌溉，产出受市场与异常天气影响，波动剧烈；生产加工成本高，轧花厂工人的时薪高达人民币150元；由于纺织加工业的缺位，原棉直接出口，其受激烈的国际市场竞争承压 Continuous and substantial investments are required in variety research and development, irrigation systems, and precision agriculture technologies. The cotton industry is highly dependent on irrigation, and its output is subject to drastic fluctuations due to market and abnormal weather conditions. The production and processing costs are high, with the hourly wage for workers in cotton ginning factories reaching up to 150 yuan. Due to the absence of the textile processing industry, raw cotton is exported directly, which puts it under pressure from fierce competition in the international market

Table 7

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年份 Year	播种面积 Sown area (×10⁴ hm²)	总产量 Total yield (×10⁴ t)	单产 Yield per unit area (kg·hm^-2)	占全国产量比重 Percentage of production in the national total yield (%)
2014	195.32	367.7	1882.5	59.5
2015	190.43	350.3	1839.6	64.5
2016	200.56	410.2	2045.3	67.3
2017	196.31	408.2	2079.3	74.4
2018	221.78	511.1	2304.6	83.8
2019	254.05	500.2	1969.1	84.9
2020	233.54	516.1	2210.3	87.3
2021	250.61	512.9	2046.4	89.5
2022	241.56	539.1	2231.8	90.2
2023	236.93	511.2	2157.8	91.0
2024	249.03	568.6	2284.0	92.2
2025	259.17	616.5	2379.0	92.8

年份 Year	长度28 mm及以上占比 Percentage of varieties with fiber length of 28mm or above (%)	长度29 mm及以上占比 Percentage of varieties with fiber length of 29 mm or above (%)	马克隆值A+B级占比 Percentage of varieties with Micronaire value grade A+B (%)	断裂比强度≥29.0 Fiber strength (Proportion of strong and above 29.0 cN/tex, %)	优质棉占比 Percentage of high-quality varieties (%)
2014	87.3	36.4	88.5	21.9	—
2015	75.4	31.6	62.1	28.8	—
2016	93.5	54.8	79.7	23.9	—
2017	93.2	54.2	80.6	26.5	—
2018	95.8	60.6	82.8	42.1	—
2019	91.2	54.6	72.7	38.8	—
2020	79.4	24.2	68.1	19.9	—
2021	96.3	49.7	86.3	62.3	—
2022	93.5	53.2	90.4	64.8	—
2023	97.8	56.1	92.1	64.6	—
2024	98.1	58.2	93.1	63.3	64.6
2025	98.5	60.3	96.2	72.3	72.3

年份 Year	纱锭规模 Spindle scale (×10⁴ spindles)	织机数量 Number of looms (×10⁴)	布产量 Cloth output (×10⁸ m)	备案纺织服装企业 Registered textile and apparel enterprises	规上企业工业增加值 Industrial added value of enterprises (×10⁸ yuan)	全产业链总产值 Total output value of the entire industry chain (×10⁸ yuan)
2020	2038	1.68	4.9	2400	371	—
2021	2146	—	6.8	2700	438	—
2022	2215	—	8.5	3100	506	—
2023	2449	3.48	13.8	3500	573	—
2024	2910	6.24	24.9	3920	620	—
2025	3010	6.80	32.6	4100	710	2200
2020—2025年增幅 Increase from 2020 to 2025 (%)	47.7	304.8	565.3	70.8	91.4	—

年份 Year	综合机械化率 Comprehensive mechanization rate (%)	机采率 Mechanized picking rate (%)	采棉机保有量 Cotton picker inventory (units)
2015	85.2	30.0	2000
2020	93.6	75.0	5000
2025	97.5	92.0	8500

年份 Year	籽棉收购均价 Average purchase price of seed cotton (yuan/kg)	较2022年增长率 Growth rate compared with 2022 (%)	主要特征 Main feature
2022	6.03	—	价低惜售，交售期明显推后 Selling at a low price but reluctant to part with, with the delivery date noticeably postponed
2023	7.14	+18.4	低开高走、后小幅度回落 Opening low and rising high, followed by a slight decline
2024	6.45	+7.0	高开后，总体呈低走平稳态势 After opening higher, it generally trended lower and then stabilized
2025	6.19	+2.7	产量创新高Yield hits a new high level

Analysis and Countermeasure of Xinjiang Cotton Industry Status and Its Influencing Factors

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