中国北方地区小麦覆盖栽培增产效应的荟萃（Meta）分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.06.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】明确中国北方地区秸秆覆盖和地膜覆盖技术对小麦生产的影响,探索两种覆盖体系的适宜推广区域。【方法】在近40年的时间跨度中检索并筛选出165篇相关文献,将其置于荟萃分析（Meta-analysis）的框架下,通过效应分析的不同展现形式（如变化率及反应比）开展理论研究。整体采用随机效应模型,分析对比不同覆盖模式下小麦农艺指标和农田水分状况的变化情况。进而以亚组分析的形式,重点揭示覆盖增产效应对不同环境条件（海拔、降水量、气温、日照）及田间管理措施（覆盖周期、种植密度、耕作、施肥）的响应规律,对其进行函数拟合、权重分析及统计检验。并且通过皮尔逊相关性分析量化本研究涉及的各个变量之间的相关性。【结果】相较于露地栽培,秸秆和地膜覆盖分别使小麦产量显著提高了19.53%（95%CI = 0.55%—38.52%）和24.91%（95%CI = 3.18%—46.64%）,并且抑制了农田蒸散。不同覆盖模式下产量构成因素对增产的贡献率亦存在一定差异,分别为有效穗数>穗粒数>千粒重（秸秆覆盖）;有效穗数>千粒重>穗粒数（地膜覆盖）。其中秸秆覆盖下的穗粒数增幅较高,达5.7%（95%CI = -4.10%—15.50%）;而覆膜的有效穗数和千粒重增长更显著,分别为25.2%（95%CI = 14.11%—36.29%）和6.4%（95%CI = 1.50%—11.30%）。除了具有促产优势,覆膜的生物量和水分利用效率同样比覆秸秆高出18.17%和14.39%。具体表现为在大部分气象亚区中地膜覆盖的增产率相较于秸秆覆盖高出0.89%—23.34%。同时,随着地势的下降,覆膜的增产效应相对于非覆盖呈现出增长趋势,在低海拔地区（<800 m）增产率可达34.26%。然而,塑料薄膜相对于秸秆的增产优势会随着覆盖年限的增加而逐渐缩小,在超过8年的试验中,覆盖秸秆的整体增产率反而更高。秸秆覆盖产量还受到施肥和耕作措施的影响,尤其是在免耕,不施肥以及单施磷肥这3种处理中,增产率分别达到32.68%,25.94%和21.71%。由统计学检验可知,在海拔、年均日照时数和种植密度3个亚组中,组间异质Q的检验量整体较大,说明该组内各效应量的变异程度更高。秸秆和地膜覆盖条件下,同产量相关度最高的因子分别为有效穗数（r = 0.808）和水分利用效率（r = 0.718）,而影响两种覆盖体系中土壤含水量的首要因子分别为蒸散量（r = -0.859）以及水分利用效率（r = 0.856）。【结论】两种覆盖模式皆具有明显的增产效应,且地膜覆盖在低海拔、偏旱、偏寒地区更具优势;而秸秆覆盖更适合融入长期的保护性耕作体系,从而实现生产和生态的多元协调式发展。因此,因地制宜、因时制宜选择科学的覆盖方法是我国北方小麦覆盖技术取得成功的关键。

关键词: 秸秆覆盖, 地膜覆盖, 小麦, 产量, Meta分析

Abstract:

【Objective】The aim of this study was to identify the impact of straw mulching and plastic film mulching on wheat production in Northern China, so as to explore the suitable promotion areas of two mulching systems.【Method】In this study, a total of 165 literature was retrieved and screened in recent 40 years, which were put into the framework of Meta-analysis, and were carried out through different forms of overall effect analysis (such as change rate and response ratio) for theoretical research. Generally, by adopting random effect model, the changes of wheat agronomic indexes and farmland moisture conditions under different mulching patterns were analyzed. Then, the response rules of mulching yield increasing effect to various environmental conditions (altitude, precipitation, temperature, and sunshine) and field management measures (mulching period, planting density, tillage, and fertilization) were revealed by subgroup analysis, while the function fitting, weight analysis and statistical test were carried out. The correlation between the variables involved in this study was quantitatively analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient method.【Result】Compared with the open field cultivation, the straw and plastic film mulching significantly increased wheat yield by 19.53% (95%CI =0.55%-38.52%) and 24.91% (95%CI =3.18%-46.64%), which also inhibited field evapotranspiration. Furthermore, it was found that there were some differences in contribution rate of yield components to yield under different mulching patterns, which were: effective spike number > grain number per spike > 1000 grain weight (straw mulching); effective spike number > 1 000 grain weight > grain number per spike (plastic film mulching). The increase of grain number per spike under straw mulching was higher, that about 5.7% (95%CI = -4.10%-15.50%); while increase of effective spike number and 1000 grain weight under film mulching was more significant, which were 25.2% (95%CI = 14.11%-36.29%) and 6.4% (95%CI = 1.50%-11.30%), respectively. In addition to the advantages of promoting production, the biomass and water use efficiency of film mulching were also 18.17% and 14.39% higher than that of straw mulching, respectively. Specifically, the yield increase rate of plastic film mulching was 0.89%-23.34% higher than that of straw mulching in most meteorological subregions. Meanwhile, with the declined of terrain height, the yield increasing effect of plastic film showed the growth trend, compared with non-mulching treatments, and the yield increase rate could reach 34.26% in low altitude area (< 800m). However, the yield increasing advantage of plastic film mulching over straw mulching was declined gradually with the increase of mulching years. In the more than 8 years of mulching experiments, the overall yield increasing rate of straw mulching was higher. The yield of straw mulching was also affected by fertilization and tillage measures, especially in the three treatments of no tillage, no fertilization and applying phosphate fertilizer, the yield increase rates were 32.68%, 25.94% and 21.71%, respectively. According to statistical test, among the three subgroups of altitude, average annual sunshine hours and planting density, their inter group heterogeneity Q test statistics were larger, indicated that the variation degree of each effect quantity in these groups was higher. Finally, it was found that under the conditions of straw and plastic film mulching, the factors with the highest correlation to yield were effective spike number (r = 0.808) and water use efficiency (r = 0.718), while the most primary factors affecting the soil water content in two mulching systems were evapotranspiration (r = -0.859) and water use efficiency (r = 0.856), respectively.【Conclusion】In conclusion, these two mulching patterns possessed obvious effect on yield increase, while plastic film mulching had more advantages in low altitude, relative drought and cold regions; The straw mulching was more suitable for long-term conservation tillage system, so as to achieve the coordinated development of production and ecology. Therefore, the key to the success of wheat mulching technology in northern China is to choose scientific mulching methods according to local and time conditions.

Key words: straw mulching, plastic film mulching, wheat, yield, meta-analysis

秦羽青,程宏波,柴雨葳,马建涛,李瑞,李亚伟,常磊,柴守玺. 中国北方地区小麦覆盖栽培增产效应的荟萃（Meta）分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2022, 55(6): 1095-1109.

QIN YuQing,CHENG HongBo,CHAI YuWei,MA JianTao,LI Rui,LI YaWei,CHANG Lei,CHAI ShouXi. Increasing Effects of Wheat Yield Under Mulching Cultivation in Northern of China: A Meta-Analysis[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(6): 1095-1109.

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线性模型 Linear model	处理 Treatment	增产率 YIR (%)	权重 Weight (%)	置信区间 CI (%)		Z	P	Q	P_Q	n
线性模型 Linear model	处理 Treatment	增产率 YIR (%)	权重 Weight (%)	下限 LL	上限 UL	Z	P	Q	P_Q	n
随机效应模型 REM	秸秆覆盖 Straw mulching	19.53	43.94	0.55	38.52	5.94	0.022	956	0.000	185
随机效应模型 REM	地膜覆盖 Plastic mulching	24.91	56.06	3.18	46.64	6.43	0.007	814	0.012	236

变量 Variable	亚组 Sub-group	Qtra	P-Qtra	Qter	P-Qter	CV (%)	Weight (%)
海拔 Altitude (m)	< 800	25.42(17.65)	<0.05(<0.05)	79.56(53.68)	<0.01(<0.01)	20.54(12.81)	14.05(7.44)
	800-1 150	9.55(4.98)	<0.05(0.255)			13.56(12.54)	9.92(15.98)
	1 150-1 250	15.30(7.29)	<0.01(<0.05)			13.05(21.65)	26.17(13.77)
	> 1 250	49.15(16.36)	<0.01(<0.05)			15.45(12.25)	7.99(4.68)
年均降水量 Annual mean precipitation (mm)	< 450	7.61(4.09)	<0.05(0.296)	15.93(33.54)	<0.05(<0.01)	10.53(12.00)	8.73(9.98)
	450-550	5.22(6.05)	0.262(0.080)			14.62(15.11)	11.47(7.23)
	550-650	4.34(4.90)	0.133(0.116)			13.20(13.68)	19.20(26.18)
	> 650	2.31(5.57)	0.523(0.122)			20.55(9.03)	4.99(12.22)
年均气温 Annual mean air temperature (℃)	< 9	4.49(5.16)	0.207(0.195)	6.63(10.50)	0.057(<0.05)	11.64(14.74)	8.06(12.24)
	9-10.5	6.55(1.12)	<0.05(0.551)			10.25(15.07)	11.64(19.70)
	10.5-12.5	4.22(6.85)	0.376(<0.05)			13.87(12.51)	4.78(8.69)
	> 12.5	1.25(2.27)	0.415(0.364)			8.32(1.99)	19.10(15.52)
年均日照时数 Annual mean sunshine hours (h)	< 2 200	43.68(52.02)	<0.05(<0.01)	77.68(120.54)	<0.01(<0.01)	15.36(21.60)	10.96(14.04)
	2 200-2 500	33.98(12.84)	<0.01(<0.05)			19.09(11.68)	16.67(15.79)
	> 2200	27.58(60.17)	<0.05(<0.01)			12.25(11.87)	17.98(24.56)

变量 Variable	亚组 Sub-group	Qtra	P-Qtra	Qter	P-Qter	CV (%)	Weight (%)
覆盖周期 Mulching period	1~2	3.80(10.35)	0.327(<0.05)	9.66(42.56)	0.604(<0.01)	15.81(17.15)	7.62(19.06)
	3~4	5.43(18.54)	0.092(<0.01)			12.73(15.59)	14.37(17.01)
	5~8	1.89(15.42)	0.578(<0.05)			8.92(13.72)	12.61(10.26)
	> 8	2.57(13.32)	0.436(<0.01)			22.97(10.54)	15.25(3.81)
种植密度 Planting density (×10⁴plants/hm²)	< 300	35.01(18.74)	<0.01(<0.05)	151.40(36.15)	<0.01(<0.01)	13.56(15.74)	7.76(10.05)
	300~400	99.55(10.37)	<0.01(<0.05)			20.99(22.52)	17.81(21.00)
	> 400	41.03(14.28)	<0.01(<0.05)			19.40(15.17)	19.63(23.74)
耕作模式 Tillage pattern	传统耕作CT	12.84(9.35)	<0.05(<0.05)	25.19(33.21)	<0.05(<0.01)	10.97(10.51)	8.51(13.62)
	免耕NT	11.27(7.34)	<0.05(0.063)			15.28(7.71)	21.70(10.21)
	旋耕RT	6.55(1.90)	0.075(0.449)			14.32(13.94)	14.04(5.11)
	深松耕ST	14.43(8.54)	<0.01(<0.05)			11.56(8.57)	16.60(10.21)
施肥方式 Fertilization measure	不施肥NF	11.35(2.16)	<0.05(0.389)	50.66(14.20)	<0.01(<0.05)	18.55(13.06)	10.99(4.71)
	单施氮肥AN	15.23(2.26)	<0.01(0.397)			12.80(14.49)	3.93(5.76)
	单施磷肥AP	41.31(2.48)	<0.01(0.303)			13.15(20.92)	3.93(5.76)
	单施有机肥AO	5.24(6.55)	0.856(0.527)			14.06(14.28)	9.42(7.59)
	单施无机肥AI	18.80(5.54)	<0.01(<0.05)			10.83(9.54)	4.97(7.07)
	有机无机配施OIF	5.17(3.11)	0.127(0.278)			11.98(15.77)	15.45(20.42)

	产量 Yield	生物产量 Biomass	有效穗数Effective spike number	穗粒数 Grain number per spike	千粒重 1000-grain weight	蒸散量 ET	水分利用效率 WUE	土壤含水量 Soil water content
产量 Yield	1
生物产量 Biomass	0.686** 0.443*	1
有效穗数 Effective spike number	0.808 0.677	0.201 0.165	1
穗粒数 Grain number per spike	0.796** 0.364	0.548* 0.501*	-0.537* -0.887**	1
千粒重 1000-grain weight	0.549* 0.586*	0.086 0.340	-0.563* 0.760*	-0.532* -0.391	1
蒸散量 ET	-0.064 -0.054	-0.112 -0.438**	-0.368 0.845**	0.336 0.224	-0.517* -0.758**	1
水分利用效率 WUE	0.312 0.718**	0.195 0.667**	0.224 0.167	0.428 0.875**	0.258 0.490*	-0.561* -0.913**	1
土壤含水量 Soil water content	0.473* 0.492*	0.632* 0.145	0.460* 0.259	0.227 0.456*	0.524* 0.411	-0.859 -0.783	0.414 0.856**	1