Please wait a minute...
Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2014, Vol. 13 Issue (7): 1432-1442    DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60819-4
Special Issue: Systematic Synthesis of Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Crop Production System Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?
 WU Wen-bin, YU Qiang-yi, Verburg H Peter, YOU Liang-zhi, YANG Peng , TANG Hua-jun
1、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, The Netherlands
3、International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. 20006, USA
Download:  PDF in ScienceDirect  
Export:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要  To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid fierce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And finally, crop-specific agricultural intensification would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

Abstract  To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid fierce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And finally, crop-specific agricultural intensification would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.
Keywords:  agricultural land systems       food production       expansion       allocation       intensification       global change  
Received: 08 May 2014   Accepted:
Fund: 

financed by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2010CB951504), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271112) and the National Non-Profit Institute Research Grant of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China (IARRP-2014-2).

Corresponding Authors:  TANG Hua-jun, E-mail: tanghuajun@caas.cn     E-mail:  tanghuajun@caas.cn
About author:  WU Wen-bin, E-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn

Cite this article: 

WU Wen-bin, YU Qiang-yi, Verburg H Peter, YOU Liang-zhi, YANG Peng , TANG Hua-jun. 2014. How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(7): 1432-1442.

Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. 2012. World Agriculture,Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision. FAO, Rome.Alexandratos N. 2009. World Food and Agriculture to2030/50. FAO, Rome. pp. 1-32

Borras Jr S M, Franco J C. 2012. Global land grabbing andtrajectories of agrarian change: A preliminary analysis.Journal of Agrarian Change, 12, 34-59

Boryan C, Yang Z, Mueller R, Craig M. 2011. MonitoringUS agriculture: the US department of agriculture, nationalagricultural statistics service, cropland data layer program.Geocarto International, 26, 341-358

Bridhikitti A, Overcamp T J. 2012. Estimation of SoutheastAsian rice paddy areas with different ecosystems frommoderate-resolution satellite imagery. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment, 146, 113-120

Bruinsma J, 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By HowMuch do Land, Water Use and Crop Yields Need toIncrease by 2050. FAO and ESDD, Rome.

Cassidy E S, West P C, Gerber J S, Foley J A. 2013. Redefiningagricultural yields: From tonnes to people nourished perhectare. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 034015.

Chen C, Qian C, Deng A, Zhang W. 2012. Progressive andactive adaptations of cropping system to climate changein Northeast China. European Journal of Agronomy, 38,94-103

Deng X, Huang J, Rozelle S, Uchida E. 2006. Cultivated landconversion and potential agricultural productivity in China.Land Use Policy, 23, 372-384

Dury J, Schaller N, Garcia F, Reynaud A, Bergez J.2012. Models to support cropping plan and croprotation decisions. A review. Agronomy for SustainableDevelopment, 32, 567-580

Duveiller G, Baret F, Defourny P. 2012. Remotely sensedgreen area index for winter wheat crop monitoring: 10-Yearassessment at regional scale over a fragmented landscape.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 166-167, 156-168

Erb K, Haberl H, Jepsen M R, Kuemmerle T, Lindner M,Müller D, Verburg P H, Reenberg A. 2013. A conceptualframework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5, 464-470

FAO, IFAD, WFP. 2013. The state of food insecurity in theworld 2013. In: The Multiple Dimensions of Food Security.FAO, Rome.

Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P, Barford C, Bonan G,Carpenter S R, Chapin F S, Coe M T, Daily G C, Gibbs HK, Helkowski J H, Holloway T, Howard E A, KucharikC J, Monfreda C, Patz J A, Prentice I C, RamankuttyN, Snyder P K. 2005. Global consequences of land use.Science, 309, 570-574

Foley J A, Ramankutty N, Brauman K A, Cassidy E S, GerberJ S, Johnston M, Mueller N D, Connell C, Ray D K, West PC, Balzer C, Bennett E M, Carpenter S R, Hill J, MonfredaC, Polasky S, Rockstrom J, Sheehan J, Siebert S, TilmanD, et al. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature,478, 337-342

Gao J, Liu Y. 2011. Climate warming and land use changein Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China. AppliedGeography, 31, 476-482

Gliessman S R. 1985. Multiple Cropping Systems: A Basis forDeveloping an Alternative Agriculture. OTA, Washington,DC.

Godfray H C J, Beddington J R, Crute I R, Haddad L, LawrenceD, Muir J F, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas S M, ToulminC. 2010. Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billionpeople. Science, 327, 812-818

Grassini P, Eskridge K M, Cassman K G. 2013. Distinguishingbetween yield advances and yield plateaus in historicalcrop production trends. Nature Communications, 4, DOI:10.1038/ncomms3918.

Grau R, Kuemmerle T, Macchi L. 2013. Beyond “land sparingversus land sharing”: Environmental heterogeneity,globalization and the balance between agriculturalproduction and nature conservation. Current Opinion inEnvironmental Sustainability, 5, 477-483

Gregory P J, Ingram J S I, Ersson R, Betts R A, Brovkin V,Chase T N, Grace P R, Gray A J, Hamilton N, HardyT B, Howden S M, Jenkins A, Meybeck M, Olsson M,Ortiz-Monasterio I, Palm C A, Payn T W, RummukainenM, Schulze R E, Thiem M, et al. 2002. Environmentalconsequences of alternative practices for intensifying cropproduction. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment,88, 279-290

Gumma M K, Gauchan D, Nelson A, Pandey S, Rala A.2011. Temporal changes in rice-growing area and theirimpact on livelihood over a decade: A case study of Nepal.Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 142, 382-392

Han W, Yang Z, Di L, Mueller R. 2012. CropScape: A Webservice based application for exploring and disseminatingUS conterminous geospatial cropland data productsfor decision support. Computers and Electronics inAgriculture, 84, 111-123

IIASA/FAO, 2012. Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZv3.0). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change? 1441© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

van Ittersum M K, Cassman K G. 2013. Yield gap analysis -Rationale, methods and applications - Introduction to theSpecial Issue. Field Crops Research, 143, 1-3

Jaggard K W, Qi A, Ober E S. 2010. Possible changes to arablecrop yields by 2050. Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society (B: Biological Sciences), 365, 2835-2851

Johnston M, Foley J A, Holloway T, Kucharik C, MonfredaC. 2009. Resetting global expectations from agriculturalbiofuels. Environmental Research Letters, 4, 014004.

Ju H, Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y. 2013. The impactsof climate change on agricultural production systems inChina. Climatic Change, 120, 313-324

Kastner T, Rivas M J I, Koch W, Nonhebel S. 2012. Globalchanges in diets and the consequences for land requirementsfor food. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the United States of America, 109, 6868-6872

Lambin E F, Gibbs H K, Ferreira L, Grau R, Mayaux P,Meyfroidt P, Morton D C, Rudel T K, Gasparri I, Munger J.2013. Estimating the world’s potentially available croplandusing a bottom-up approach. Global EnvironmentalChange, 23, 892-901

Lambin E F, Meyfroidt P. 2011. Global land use change,economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 108, 3465-3472

Langeveld J W A, Dixon J, van Keulen H, Quist-Wessel P MF. 2014. Analyzing the effect of biofuel expansion on landuse in major producing countries: Evidence of increasedmultiple cropping. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining,8, 49-58

Lapola D M, Schaldach R, Alcamo J, Bondeau A, Koch J,Koelking C, Priess J A. 2010. Indirect land-use changescan overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 107, 3388-3393

Li Z, Yang P, Tang H, Wu W, Yin H, Liu Z, Zhang L.2014. Response of maize phenology to climate warmingin Northeast China between 1990 and 2012. RegionalEnvironmental Change, 14, 39-48

Liu L, Xu X, Zhuang D, Chen X, Li S. 2013. Changes in thepotential multiple cropping system in response to climatechange in China from 1960-2010 PLOS ONE, 8, e80990.

Liu Z, Hubbard K G, Lin X, Yang X. 2013a. Negative effectsof climate warming on maize yield are reversed by thechanging of sowing date and cultivar selection in NortheastChina. Global Change Biology, 19, 3481-3492

Liu Z, Li Z, Tang P, Li Z, Wu W, Yang P, You L, TangH. 2013b. Change analysis of rice area and productionin China during the past three decades. Journal ofGeographical Sciences, 23, 1005-1018

Lobell D B, Cassman K G, Field C B. 2009. Crop yield gaps:Their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annual Reviewof Environment and Resources, 34, 179-204

Macedo M N, DeFries R S, Morton D C, Stickler C M, GalfordG L, Shimabukuro Y E. 2012. Decoupling of deforestationand soy production in the southern Amazon during the late2000s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the United States of America, 109, 1341-1346

Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley J A. 2008. Farming theplanet: 2. geographic distribution of crop areas, yields,physiological types, and net primary production in theyear 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB1022.

OECD-FAO. 2009. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018 OCED Publishing and FAO, Italy.

Pan Y, Li L, Zhang J, Liang S, Zhu X, Sulla-Menashe D. 2012.Winter wheat area estimation from MODIS-EVI time seriesdata using the Crop Proportion Phenology Index. RemoteSensing of Environment, 119, 232-242

Phalan B, Onial M, Balmford A, Green R E. 2011. Reconcilingfood production and biodiversity conservation: Landsharing and land sparing compared. Science, 333, 1289-1291

Portmann F T, Siebert S, Döll P. 2010. MIRCA2000&-Globalmonthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural andhydrological modeling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,24, GB1011.

Ray D K, Foley J A. 2013. Increasing global crop harvestfrequency: Recent trends and future directions.Environmental Research Letters, 8, 044041.

Ray D K, Mueller N D, West P C, Foley J A. 2013. Yieldtrends are insufficient to double global crop productionby 2050. PLOS ONE, 8, e66428.

Ray D K, Ramankutty N, Mueller N D, West P C, Foley J A.2012. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation.Nature Communications, 3, DOI:10.1038/ncomms2296.

Renwick A, Jansson T, Verburg P H, Revoredo-Giha C,Britz W, Gocht A, McCracken D. 2013. Policy reformand agricultural land abandonment in the EU. Land UsePolicy, 30, 446-457

Rosset P. 2011. Preventing hunger: change economic policy.Nature, 479, 472-473

Royal Society of London. 2009. Reaping the Benefits: Scienceand the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture.Royal Society, London.

Sacks W J, Deryng D, Foley J A, Ramankutty N. 2010. Cropplanting dates: An analysis of global patterns. GlobalEcology and Biogeography, 19, 607-620

Siebert S, Portmann F T, Döll P. 2010. Global patterns ofcropland use intensity. Remote Sensing, 2, 1625-1643

Smith P, Gregory P J, van Vuuren D, Obersteiner M, HavlíkP, Rounsevell M, Woods J, Stehfest E, Bellarby J. 2010.Competition for land. Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society (B: Biological Sciences), 365, 2941-2957

Stevenson J R, Villoria N, Byerlee D, Kelley T, Maredia M.2013. Green Revolution research saved an estimated 18 to27 million hectares from being brought into agriculturalproduction. Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences of the United States of America, 110, 8363-8368

The World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010:Development and Climate Change. Washington, D.C.

Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort B L. 2011. Global food1442 WU Wen-bin et al.© 2014, CAAS. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 108, 20260-20264

Turner B L, Doolittle W E. 1978. The concept and measureof agricultural intensity. The Professional Geographer,30, 297-301

Turner B L, Janetos A C, Verburg P H, Murray A T. 2013.Land system architecture: Using land systems to adaptand mitigate global environmental change. GlobalEnvironmental Change, 23, 395-397

Verburg P H, Erb K, Mertz O, Espindola G. 2013a. LandSystem Science: Between global challenges and localrealities. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,5, 433-437

Verburg P H, Mertz O, Erb K, Haberl H, Wu W. 2013b. Landsystem change and food security: Towards multi-scaleland system solutions. Current Opinion in EnvironmentalSustainability, 5, 494-502

Waha K, Müller C, Bondeau A, Dietrich J P, KurukulasuriyaP, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H. 2013. Adaptation to climatechange through the choice of cropping system and sowingdate in sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environmental Change,23, 130-143

Wu W, Verburg P, Tang H. 2014. Climate change and thefood production system: Impacts and adaptation in China.Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1-5

Wu W, Yang P, Tang H, You L, Zhou Q, Chen Z, Shibasaki R.2011. Global-scale assessment of potential future risks offood insecurity. Journal of Risk Research, 14, 1143-1160

Xia T, Wu W B, Zhou Q B, Yu Q Y, Verburg P H, Yang P,Lu Z J, Tang H J. 2014. Spatiotemporal changes in therice planting area and their relationship to climate changein Northeast China: A model-based analysis. Journal ofIntegrative Agriculture, 13, 1432-1442

Yang X G, Liu Z J, Chen F. 2011. The possible effect ofclimate warming on northern limits of cropping systemand crop yield in China. Agricultural Sciences in China,10, 585-594

You L, Spoor M, Ulimwengu J, Zhang S. 2011. Land usechange and environmental stress of wheat, rice and cornproduction in China. China Economic Review, 22, 461-473

You L, Wood S, Wood-Sichra U, Wu W. 2014. Generatingglobal crop distribution maps: From census to grid.Agricultural Systems, 127, 53-60

Yu Q, Wu W, Yang P, Li Z, Xiong W, Tang H. 2012.Proposing an interdisciplinary and cross-scale frameworkfor global change and food security researches. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment, 156, 57-71

Zhang G, Dong J, Zhou C, Xu X, Wang M, Ouyang H, XiaoX. 2013. Increasing cropping intensity in response toclimate warming in Tibetan Plateau, China. Field CropsResearch, 142, 36-46

Zhang X, Cai X. 2011. Climate change impacts on globalagricultural land availability. Environmental ResearchLetters, 6, 014014.
[1] WANG Meng-qi, ZHANG Hong-rui, XI Yu-qiang, WANG Gao-ping, ZHAO Man, ZHANG Li-juan, GUO Xian-ru. Population genetic variation and historical dynamics of the natural enemy insect Propylea japonica (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(8): 2456-2469.
[2] GUO Yi, GONG Ying, HE Yong-meng, YANG Bai-gao, ZHANG Wei-yi, CHEN Bo-er, HUANG Yong-fu, ZHAO Yong-ju, ZHANG Dan-ping, MA Yue-hui, CHU Ming-xing, E Guang-xin. Investigation of Mitochondrial DNA genetic diversity and phylogeny of goats worldwide[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2022, 21(6): 1830-1837.
[3] LIU Cong, LI De-xiong, HUANG Xian-biao, Zhang Fu-qiong, Xie Zong-zhou, Zhang Hong-yan, Liu Ji-hong. Manual thinning increases fruit size and sugar content of Citrus reticulata Blanco and affects hormone synthesis and sugar transporter activity[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2022, 21(3): 725-735.
[4] LIANG Xiao-gui, SHEN Si, GAO Zhen, ZHANG Li, ZHAO Xue, ZHOU Shun-li. Variation of carbon partitioning in newly expanded maize leaves and plant adaptive growth under extended darkness[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(9): 2360-2371.
[5] JIAO Xiao-qiang, ZHANG Hong-yan, MA Wen-qi, WANG Chong, LI Xiao-lin, ZHANG Fu-suo. Science and Technology Backyard: A novel approach to empower smallholder farmers for sustainable intensification of agriculture in China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2019, 18(8): 1657-1666.
[6] ZHAO Jian-hua, LI Hao-xia, ZHANG Cun-zhi, AN Wei, YIN Yue, WANG Ya-jun, CAO You-long. Physiological response of four wolfberry (Lycium Linn.) species under drought stress[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2018, 17(03): 603-612.
[7] Feifei Sun, DAI Yun, Xiaohua Yu. Air pollution, food production and food security: A review from the perspective of food system[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16(12): 2945-2962.
[8] Ajapnwa Akamin, Jean-Claude Bidogeza, Jules René Minkoua N, Victor Afari-Sefa . Efficiency and productivity analysis of vegetable farming within root and tuber-based systems in the humid tropics of Cameroon[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16(08): 1865-1873.
[9] TANG Yun-jia, Johannes Liesche. The molecular mechanism of shade avoidance in crops- How data from Arabidopsis can help to identify targets for increasing yield and biomass production[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16(06): 1244-1255.
[10] Alphonse Nahayo, Morris O. Omondi, ZHANG Xu-hui, LI Lian-qing, PAN Gen-xing, Stephen Joseph . Factors influencing farmers’ participation in crop intensification program in Rwanda[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16(06): 1406-1416.
[11] WANG Na, Joost Wolf, ZHANG Fu-suo. Towards sustainable intensification of apple production in China—Yield gaps and nutrient use efficiency in apple farming systems[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2016, 15(4): 716-725.
[12] ZONG Yu-zheng, SHANGGUAN Zhou-ping. Increased sink capacity enhances C and N assimilation under drought and elevated CO2 conditions in maize[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2016, 15(12): 2775-2785.
[13] LIAO Yan, WU Wen-liang, MENG Fan-qiao, LI Hu. Impact of agricultural intensification on soil organic carbon: A study using DNDC in Huantai County, Shandong Province, China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2016, 15(06): 1364-1375.
[14] David Norman. Transitioning from paternalism to empowerment of farmers in lowincome countries: Farming components to systems[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(8): 1490-1499.
[15] MIAO Hui-tian, Lü Jia-long, XU Ming-gang, ZHANG Wen-ju, HUANG Shao-min, PENG Chang, CHEN Li-ming. Carbon and nitrogen allocations in corn grown in Central and Northeast China: different responses to fertilization treatments[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1212-1221.
No Suggested Reading articles found!