基于APSIM模型的内蒙古四大生态区不同降水年型下主要作物适应性评价

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2022.10.004

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 In order to provide the important scientific reference for optimizing the layout of staple crops in Inner Mongolia, the adaptability of staple crops (maize, potato, oats, canola, oil and edible sunflower) was evaluated in four ecological regions of Inner Mongolia under different precipitation year types.【Method】Four typical sites in four ecological regions were selected. The validated APSIM model was used to quantify the potential yields, rainfed yields and yield gaps of six crops. Yield reduction rates of rainfed yields relative to potential yields under different precipitation year types were calculated to evaluate the adaptability of staple crops. Crop water production functions were conducted to analyze crop water sensitivity. 【Result】RMSE between simulated and observed vegetative growth period, reproductive growth period, dry yield was 10.1 d, 8.9 d, and 1 322.4 kg·hm^-2, respectively. NRMSE between observed and simulated vegetative growth period, reproductive growth period, and dry yield was 14.6%, 19.2%, and 22.6%, respectively. The validation results showed that APSIM could effectively simulate the growth, development, and yield of each crop in different regions. The potential dry yields of maize, potato, oats, canola, oil sunflower, and edible sunflower were 12 024±4 874, 7 315±806, 6 611±906, 2 424±326, 2 721±205, and 4 905±428 kg·hm^-2, respectively. The potential yields of oats and edible sunflower reached the maximum values in the north foot of Yinshan Mountains while potential yields of other four crops reached the maximum values in the Loess Plateau. The rainfed dry yields of maize, potato, oats, canola, oil sunflower, and edible sunflower were 3 056±2 902, 3 337±1 608, 2 974±1 677, 912±511, 869±618, and 1 508±984 kg·hm^-2, respectively. Average rainfed yields of the six crops increased from west to east and reached the maximum values in Da Hinggan Mountains. Yield gaps of maize, potato, oats, canola, oil sunflower, and edible sunflower were 8 968±5 844, 3 978±2 358, 3 637± 2 122, 1 512±832, 1 852±749, and 3 397±1 328 kg·hm^-2, respectively. Except maize and oats, the yield gaps of four crops decreased from west to east and reached the minimum values in Da Hinggan Mountains. Taking the yield reduction rate from potential to rainfed conditions as the drought index under the rainfed condition and considering the variation coefficients of rainfed yields, it was not suitable to plant crops in any years in the Loess Plateau. In the north foot of Yinshan Mountains, crops were not suitable for planting in dry years. Potato was suitable for planting in normal years, while potato and oats were suitable for planting in wet years. At the foothills of Yanshan hilly area, crops were not suitable for planting in dry years. Potato and oats were suitable for planting in normal years while six crops were all suitable for planting in wet years. In Da Hinggan Mountains, potato, oats, canola, and edible sunflower were suitable for planting in dry years, while six crops were all suitable for planting in normal and wet years. The linear correlations between the relative evapotranspiration and the relative yield of the six crops were all significant (P<0.01) with R² ranging from 0.84 to 0.99. The sensitivity of crop to water stress was in the order of oil sunflower, edible sunflower, maize, oats, canola, and potato.【Conclusion】This study revealed the adaptability of staple crops under different precipitation year types in the four ecological regions of Inner Mongolia. There was a large difference in water sensitivity of six crops. Under rainfed condition, potato were suitable for planting in normal and wet years in the north foot of Yinshan Mountains and the foothills of Yanshan hilly area, and in all year types in Da Hinggan Mountains. Oats were suitable for planting in wet years in the north foot of Yinshan Mountains, in normal and wet years in the foothills of Yanshan hilly area and in all year types in Da Hinggan Mountains. Canola and edible sunflower were suitable for planting only in wet years in the foothills of Yanshan hilly area and in all year types in Da Hinggan Mountains. Maize and oil sunflower were suitable for planting only in wet years in the foothills of Yanshan hilly area and in normal and wet years in Da Hinggan Mountains.

Key words: rainfed agriculture, guaranteed rate of precipitation, precipitation year type, yield reduction rate, adaptability

LIU XiaXia, LI Yang, WANG Jing, HUANG MingXia, BAI Rui, SONG Yang, HU Qi, ZHANG JiaYing, CHEN RenWei. Adaptability Evaluation of Staple Crops Under Different Precipitation Year Types in Four Ecological Regions of Inner Mongolia Based on APSIM[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2022, 55(10): 1917-1937.

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Figures/Tables 15

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Table 1

Table 2

Resource for crop genetic parameters in the APSIM model and its validation information"

作物 Crop	参数来源 Parameter resource					验证数据 Validation data
作物 Crop	品种 Cultivar	站点 Site		年份 Year	参考文献 Reference	品种 Cultivar	站点 Site	年份 Year	参考文献 Reference
玉米 Maize	郑单958 Zhengdan958		林甸县吉祥村 Jixiang Village, Lindian County	2012—2014	[32]	郑单958 Zhengdan958	中国农业大学北京上庄试验站 Beijing Shangzhuang Experimental Station of China Agricultural University	2008—2009	[35]
						郑单958 Zhengdan958	呼和浩特市内蒙古农业大学科技园区试验基地 Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Science Park Experimental Base in Hohhot	2013	[36]
						金凯3号 Jinkai 3	榆中县石头沟旱地农业推广基地 Dryland Agricultural Promotion Base in Shitou Gully, Yuzhong County	2015—2016	[37]
						郑单958 Zhengdan958	喀喇沁旗水泉沟 Shuiquan Gully, Kalaqin Banner	2017—2019	[38]
马铃薯 Potato	克新一号 Kexin_1		武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2017—2018	[39]	克新一号 Kexin_1	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2010	[2]
						克新一号 Kexin_1	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2015—2017	[40]
						克新一号 Kexin_1	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2019—2020	本研究 This study
莜麦 Oats	草莜一号 Caoyou 1		武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2009—2013	[14]	草莜一号 Caoyou 1	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2009—2010	[2]
油菜 Canola	大黄 Bigyellow		武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2009—2012	[33]	大黄 Bigyellow	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2010	[2]
						青杂5号 Qingza 5	海东市平安区沙沟乡 Shagou Village, Ping ' an District, Haidong City	2019	[41]
						圣光402 Shengguang 402	民乐县永固镇西村 West Village, Yonggu Town, Minle County	2019	[41]
油葵 Oil sunflower	内葵杂3号 Neikuiza_3		武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2014—2015	[34]	内葵杂强 Neikuizaqiang	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2010	[2]
食葵 Edible sunflower	SF3368		武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2014—2015	[34]	SH361	武川农业环境科学观测试验站 The Scientific and Observational Experimental Station of Agro- environment in Wuchuan	2013—2014	[42]

Table 2

Table 3

Main phenological parameters of six crop cultivars in the APSIM model"

作物 Crop	参数和定义 Parameter and definition	参数值 Parameter value
玉米 Maize	tt_emerg_to_endjuv (°C·d) 出苗—幼年期结束所需有效积温 Thermal time required from emergence to end of juvenile	200
玉米 Maize	tt_flower_to_maturity (°C·d) 开花—成熟所需有效积温 Thermal time required from flower to maturity	700
马铃薯 Potato	y_tt_emergence (°C·d) 出苗—现蕾所需有效积温 Degree days from emergence to earlytuber	335
	tt_earlytuber (°C·d) 现蕾—开花所需有效积温 Degree days from earlytuber to senescing	210
	tt_senescing (°C·d) 开花—成熟所需有效积温 Degree days from senescing to maturity	660
莜麦 Oats	tt_end_of_juvenile (°C·d) 幼苗阶段所需有效积温 Thermal time required from end of juvenile stage to floral initiation	425
	tt_floral_initiation (°C·d) 花芽分化阶段所需有效积温 Thermal time required from floral initiation stage to flowering	420
	tt_flowering (°C·d) 开花期所需有效积温 Thermal time required from flowering to start of grain flling	150
油菜 Canola	CTT_Juv__max (°C·d) 完成幼年期所需有效积温 Maximum thermal time required to complete the juvenile phase when not vernalized	231
	CTT_FI__max (°C·d) 完成光周期敏感阶段所需有效积温 Maximum thermal time required to complete the photoperiod sensitive stage for photoperiod less than 10.8 h	370
	CTT_GF (°C·d) 完成灌浆阶段所需有效积温 Thermal time for the grain filling period	640
油葵 Oil sunflower	tt_endjuv_to_init (°C·d) 幼年期结束—花芽分化所需有效积温 Thermal time required from end of juvenile to floral initiation	410
	tt_fi_to_flag (°C·d) 花芽分化—旗叶所需有效积温 Thermal time required from floral initiation to flag leaf	400
	tt_flower_to_maturity (°C·d) 开花—成熟所需有效积温 Thermal time required from flower to maturity	700
食葵 Edible sunflower	tt_endjuv_to_init (°C·d) 幼年期结束—花芽分化所需有效积温 Thermal time required from end of juvenile to floral initiation	220
	tt_fi_to_flag (°C·d) 花芽分化—旗叶所需有效积温 Thermal time required from floral initiation to flag leaf	280
	tt_flower_to_maturity (°C·d) 开花—成熟所需有效积温 Thermal time required from flower to maturity	910

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Table 6

Relationships between the potential (Yp) and rainfed (Yr) yields of six crops with growth period solar radiation, mean temperature and precipitation in four ecological regions in Inner Mongolia"

作物 Crop	产量 Yield	地区 Region	辐射 Solar radiation		温度 Temperature		降水 Precipitation
作物 Crop	产量 Yield	地区 Region	斜率 Slope	R²	斜率 Slope	R²	斜率 Slope	R²
玉米 Maize	Y_p	I	6.17	0.61**	-781.81	0.37**	2.47	0.03
		Ⅱ	3.28	0.13*	2715.41	0.60**	-1.73	0.01
		Ⅲ	6.74	0.57**	-1140.15	0.63**	4.27	0.08
		Ⅳ	9.14	0.35**	2122.88	0.44**	-4.96	0.10
	Y_r	I	0.23	0.04	46.36	0.00	3.52	0.14*
		Ⅱ	1.19	0.02	1002.57	0.12*	9.63	0.06
		Ⅲ	-4.86	0.16*	-18.81	0.01	32.45	0.71**
		Ⅳ	-5.42	0.07	-250.19	0.01	9.69	0.21**
马铃薯 Potato	Y_p	I	4.73	0.49**	-20.95	0.01	-1.88	0.02
		Ⅱ	4.53	0.74**	-284.72	0.12*	0.00	0.01
		Ⅲ	4.57	0.59**	456.41	0.08	-5.98	0.24**
		Ⅳ	5.19	0.67**	812.46	0.20**	-4.49	0.27**
	Y_r	I	1.02	0.27**	378.79	0.06	8.74	0.39**
		Ⅱ	2.02	0.06	-363.83	0.03	11.65	0.17*
		Ⅲ	-4.36	0.22**	-1019.36	0.11*	15.91	0.40**
		Ⅳ	0.90	0.03	-187.10	0.01	-0.58	0.01
莜麦 Oats	Y_p	I	5.84	0.66**	-437.11	0.27**	2.03	0.04
		Ⅱ	4.09	0.81**	-570.02	0.60**	4.42	0.12*
		Ⅲ	3.05	0.29**	-256.22	0.17*	-0.91	0.02
		Ⅳ	3.49	0.49**	-101.09	0.01	-0.67	0.02
	Y_r	I	0.93	0.24**	466.75	0.11*	6.03	0.26**
		Ⅱ	1.68	0.09	-190.91	0.02	8.65	0.16*
		Ⅲ	-0.61	0.01	-1079.51	0.28**	9.38	0.18*
		Ⅳ	0.38	0.01	-791.34	0.31**	2.71	0.12*
油菜 Canola	Y_p	I	0.81	0.12*	-177.88	0.13*	0.66	0.03
		Ⅱ	1.29	0.59**	-25.49	0.01	-0.55	0.02
		Ⅲ	0.59	0.11	29.46	0.003	-1.23	0.11
		Ⅳ	0.01	0.70**	4.58	0.67**	-0.01	0.33**
	Y_r	I	0.22	0.23**	1114.12	0.19**	2.22	0.38**
		Ⅱ	0.39	0.17*	63.78	0.03	3.00	0.30**
		Ⅲ	0.12	0.01	-39.64	0.01	4.66	0.65**
		Ⅳ	-0.50	0.10	-140.96	0.06	1.12	0.17*
油葵 Oil sunflower	Y_p	I	1.41	0.46**	-171.05	0.29**	1.22	0.13*
		Ⅱ	-0.06	0.01	114.13	0.12*	-0.03	0.03
		Ⅲ	0.53	0.05	-178.14	0.36**	0.52	0.04
		Ⅳ	0.35	0.04	-118.42	0.15*	0.19	0.02
作物 Crop	产量 Yield	地区 Region	辐射 Solar radiation		温度 Temperature		降水 Precipitation
作物 Crop	产量 Yield	地区 Region	斜率 Slope	R²	斜率 Slope	R²	斜率 Slope	R²
	Y_r	I	0.26	0.44**	42.21	0.03	2.00	0.58**
		Ⅱ	0.17	0.01	-104.02	0.05	4.11	0.29**
		Ⅲ	-0.66	0.05	-302.79	0.22**	4.98	0.61**
		Ⅳ	-1.97	0.31**	-341.15	0.21**	2.26	0.32**
食葵 Edible sunflower	Y_p	I	1.57	0.46**	-161.12	0.19*	0.79	0.06
		Ⅱ	0.94	0.23**	-105.79	0.08	2.34	0.16*
		Ⅲ	1.04	0.10	-237.36	0.31**	0.38	0.01
		Ⅳ	1.28	0.29**	-153.92	0.10	-0.26	0.01
	Y_r	I	0.42	0.33**	143.43	0.20**	3.01	0.33**
		Ⅱ	0.65	0.13*	11.04	0.03	5.47	0.32**
		Ⅲ	0.50	0.02	-331.11	0.09	7.27	0.52**
		Ⅳ	-1.72	0.16*	-640.63	0.31**	3.57	0.38**

Table 6

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Table 7

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

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站点 Site	土层 Soil layer (cm)	容重 Bulk density (g·cm^-3)	饱和含水量 Saturated water content (mm·mm^-1)	田间持水量 Field capacity (mm·mm^-1)	凋萎含水量 Wilting water content (mm·mm^-1)
鄂托克旗 Etuokeqi	0—100	1.45±0.05	0.47±0.008	0.43±0.03	0.27±0.05
武川 Wuchuan	0—100	1.42±0.04	0.44±0.04	0.26±0.03	0.11±0.01
赤峰 Chifeng	0—100	1.37±0.06	0.48±0.02	0.37±0.02	0.22±0.22
扎兰屯 Zhalantun	0—100	1.43±0.10	0.46±0.04	0.27±0.03	0.12±0.02

站点 Site	降水年型 Precipitation year type	降水保证率 Guaranteed rate of precipitation (%)	生长季降雨量（平均值） Growing season precipitation (average) (mm)	生长季降水变异系数 Coefficient of variation of growing season precipitation (%)
鄂托克旗 Etuokeqi	丰水年 Wet year	≤25	285-423 (332)	13
	平水年 Normal year	26-75	175-284 (221)	16
	枯水年 Dry year	>75	112-174 (136)	14
武川 Wuchuan	丰水年 Wet year	≤25	357-430 (398)	7
	平水年 Normal year	26-75	249-357 (300)	9
	枯水年 Dry year	>75	141-248 (210)	11
赤峰 Chifeng	丰水年 Wet year	≤25	393-552 (445)	13
	平水年 Normal year	26-75	259-392 (316)	11
	枯水年 Dry year	>75	205-258 (232)	8
扎兰屯 Zhalantun	丰水年 Wet year	≤25	528-1050 (676)	24
	平水年 Normal year	26-75	416-527 (471)	7
	枯水年 Dry year	>75	190-415 (297)	22

	灌溉产量 Irrigated yield (kg·hm^-2)	雨养产量 Rainfed yield (kg·hm^-2)	参考文献 Reference
玉米 Maize	10 600—16 000	2 250	[68]
马铃薯 Potato	8 182	2 098	[69]
莜麦 Oats	6 075	3 080	[70]
油菜 Canola	2 274	802	[71]
油葵 Oil sunflower	3 430	985	[72]
食葵 Edible sunflower	3 991	1 501	[73]

Adaptability Evaluation of Staple Crops Under Different Precipitation Year Types in Four Ecological Regions of Inner Mongolia Based on APSIM

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作物 Crop	播期 Planting date (<BOLD>M</BOLD><BOLD>-</BOLD><BOLD>D</BOLD>)	密度 Planting density (plants/m²)	深度 Planting depth (mm)	行距 Row spacing (mm)	参考文献 Reference
玉米 Maize	05-10	6.15	50	650	[43]
马铃薯 Potato	05-15	5	80	500	[44]
莜麦 Oats	05-20	128	50	250	[14]
油菜 Canola	05-02	15	40	250	[45]
油葵 Oil sunflower	05-15	5	95	500	[34]
食葵 Edible sunflower	05-05	4	95	500	[34]

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