全球耕地利用格局时空变化分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2018.06.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】分析2000—2010年全球耕地时空分布及变化特征，为中国粮食安全国际化战略决策制定以及全球生态环境监测等研究提供信息支撑。【方法】基于全球首套30 m地表覆盖产品数据集GlobeLand30，利用耕地总面积、面积变化量、人均耕地面积占有量、面积变化幅度、面积变化量标准差、复种指数、复种指数变化量和复种指数变化幅度等8个指标，从大洲、国家、1°×1°经纬网3个统计单元，分析2010年全球耕地空间分布现状、2000—2010年全球耕地时空变化特征以及全球耕地利用强度变化特征。【结果】2010年全球耕地面积总量为193 890.00×10⁴ hm²，占全球陆表面积14.31%。全球人均耕地占有量为0.28 hm²。其中，大洋洲以人均1.71 hm²位列第一，亚洲以人均0.17 hm²排名最后。[10^oN—45^oN, 65^oE—125^oE]、[40^oN—55^oN, 15^oE—55^oE]和[15^oS—45^oS, 45^oW—70^oW]是全球耕地分布最密集的区域。耕地面积最大的前10名国家依次是：中国、美国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西、阿根廷、澳大利亚、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰，其中俄罗斯、加拿大、阿根廷和澳大利亚还是人均耕地占有量全球前10名的国家。2000—2010年，全球耕地面积总量略微变化，总体增加2.19%；美洲是耕地面积增长最大的大洲，增长达2 128.14×10⁴ hm²；非洲是耕地面积和空间变化最剧烈的大洲，增长幅度为7.42%。全球耕地面积总量前10名国家中，中国是唯一出现耕地面积减少的国家，10年间减少0.95%，巴西和阿根廷是耕地面积增加和空间波动性最大的国家。美国是耕地面积变化总量和变化幅度均最小的经济大国。全球耕地高强度种植区域主要集中在东南亚、中美洲以及西非地区，复种指数均达200%以上。2000—2010年，全球耕地面积最大的10个国家中有5个国家复种指数呈上升趋势，其中巴西和哈萨克斯坦复种指数增加最显著，俄罗斯复种指数下降最明显。【结论】2000—2010年，全球耕地总量变化不大，但不同区域和国家的耕地变化差异较大。本研究利用30 m分辨率遥感数据产品揭示了全球耕地分布状况、10年变化特征和区域差异，研究结果可为全球水土资源利用、粮食产量和粮食安全分析研究提供重要数据和信息支持。

关键词: 全球, 耕地, 时空变化, GlobeLand30

Abstract: 【Objective】This study is to analyze the spatial distribution and spatio-temporal change patterns of global cultivated land so as to provide important insights for national food security decision-making and global ecological environment monitoring. 【Method】To do so, this study analyzed the spatial distribution of global cultivated land in 2010, spatio-temporal change patterns of global cultivated land area and land use intensification during 2000-2010 by using eight statistical indicators, i.e., cultivated land area, changed area, standard deviation of changed area, percentage change of area, cultivated land area per capita, multiple cropping index, change and percentage change of multiple cropping index at three statistical scales, i.e., continent, country and 1°×1° grid. 【Result】The analysis results show the global total cultivated land area is 193 890.00×10⁴ hm² , which accounts for 14.31% of global total land area. The global average cultivated area per capital is 0.28 hm² in 2010, among which Oceania ranks first (1.71 hm²) and Asia comes last (0.17 hm²). Regions in [10^oN-45^oN, 65^oE-125^oE], [40^oN-55^oN, 15^oE-55^oE] and [15^oS-45^oS, 45^oW-70^oW] have the largest cultivated land area over the world. The top ten countries with largest cultivated land area are: China, the United States, India, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, among which Russia, Canada, Argentina and Australia are also among the top ten countries in cultivated area per capita. During 2000-2010, global cultivated land has a slight increase of 2.19%, among which America has the largest increase in cultivated land area, with a increase of 2 128.14×10⁴ hm², and Africa has the biggest increase rate and spatial variation of cultivated land area, with increase percentage of 7.42%. Among the global top ten countries with the largest cultivated land area, China is the only country where cultivated land area declined during 2000-2010, with the decrease percentage of 0.95%, and Brazil and Argentina changed most both in total cultivated land area and spatial area distribution, and the United States has the least change both in total area and percentage change of area. Regions with the highest agricultural cropping intensity concentrated in South-east Asia, Central America and West Africa, all of which have multiple cropping index of more than 200%. Five countries of the top ten with the largest cultivated land area show increase in multiple cropping index from 2000 to 2010, among which Brazil and Kazakhstan increased most and Russia decreased most. 【Conclusion】Global cultivated land generally keeps stable during this period, but there is obvious difference across regions and nations. Our study analyzed the current status of global cultivated land distribution and its change during 2000-2010 based on the 30 meter global land cover data. The results in this study provide important information and data for studies of global water resources use, global production change and food security in the future.

Key words: global, cultivated land, spatio-temporal change, GlobeLand30

胡琼，吴文斌，项铭涛，陈迪，龙禹桥，宋茜，刘逸竹，陆苗，余强毅. 全球耕地利用格局时空变化分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2018, 51(6): 1091-1105.

HU Qiong, WU WenBin, XIANG MingTao, CHEN Di, LONG YuQiao, SONG Qian, LIU YiZhu, LU Miao, YU QiangYi. Spatio-Temporal Changes in Global Cultivated Land over 2000-2010[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2018, 51(6): 1091-1105.

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