关键词: 小麦, 气候变化, 敏感性, 脆弱性

Abstract: By using B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) that developed by the UK Hadley Center and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-Wheat model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat to future climate change in China were studied based on the yield variation and GIS mapping. Results showed: in 2070s, there will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat: northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and a part of Loess Plateau. For irrigated wheat, most areas of China tend to be sensitive. The distribution tendency of the sensitive areas is similar to that of rain-fed wheat, but the sensitive degree is lighter. Under the consideration of adaptation, rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase. For irrigated wheat, the vulnerable area is bigger, occupying about 2/3 of its total area in China. The highly vulnerable regions will be distributed in northeastern China and northwestern China. And the medium and light vulnerable areas will be distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces.

Key words: Wheat, Climate change, Sensitivity, Vulnerability