河南省冬小麦成熟期-收获期连阴雨灾害穗发芽率评估模型

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.21.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】冬小麦成熟期-收获期是保障籽粒品质稳定和产量收获的关键阶段，此时发生连阴雨灾害，易造成冬小麦穗发芽（Pre-harvest sprouting，PHS）和霉变，对产量、品质和种源产生不可逆转的影响。通过定量评估成熟期-收获期连阴雨灾害对冬小麦穗发芽的影响，为穗发芽风险区划、灾害预警、定量评价、趋势预估及田间管理措施的制定提供理论与科学依据。【方法】于2024—2025年选择河南省主栽的3个冬小麦品种（新麦26、矮抗58、扬麦15），开展大田和室内穗发芽试验；利用室内穗发芽试验数据明确冬小麦穗发芽率随天数的变化规律；结合2023年河南省冬小麦穗发芽大田调查数据，进行相关分析和层次分析（analytic hierarchy process, AHP），确定影响冬小麦穗发芽率的主要气象因子；在此基础上，构建冬小麦穗发芽的评估模型（pre-harvest sprouting rate，PHSR），并对模型进行误差分析。【结果】穗发芽试验表明，冬小麦穗发芽率随天数变化符合Logistic增长规律；穗发芽率与累计降水量、日平均气温和日平均日照时数显著相关，相关系数分别为0.416（P<0.01）、0.318（P<0.05）、-0.303（P<0.05）；PHSR模型模拟值与实测值相关系数为0.85（P<0.01），平均绝对误差为1.91%，平均相对误差为4.98%，典型灾害年份模拟穗发芽率与文献记载吻合度高。总体上，受连阴雨灾害影响，河南省冬小麦成熟期-收获期穗发芽率呈现南高北低的空间分布特征；1991年为穗发芽率最高年份，其次为2023年。【结论】耦合穗发芽试验规律和关键气象影响因子两部分构建的PHSR模型，建立了一种连阴雨灾害下冬小麦穗发芽率定量评价和预估方法，可支撑河南省冬小麦成熟期-收获期连阴雨灾害导致的穗发芽风险区划、灾前预警与灾后定量评价。

关键词: 穗发芽率, 冬小麦, 成熟期-收获期, 连阴雨, 气象因子, 评估模型

Abstract:

【Objective】The period from maturity to harvest of winter wheat is a critical period for grain quality and yield, and persistent rainfall disasters during this period cause irreversible losses to wheat yield, quality, and seed security. Through quantitative assessment of the impact of persistent rainfall disasters during the maturity-harvest period on pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) in winter wheat, this study aims to provide a theoretical and scientific basis for PHS risk zoning, disaster early warning, quantitative evaluation, trend projection, and the developments of field management measures. 【Method】Field and laboratory PHS experiments were conducted on three major winter wheat (Xinmai26, Aikang58, and Yangmai15) cultivars widely grown in Henan Province during 2024-2025. Pre-harvest sprouting rate of winter wheat under persistent rainfall conditions was investigated through observational experiments to determine the variation pattern of the PHS rate over time. Subsequently, based on field survey data of PHS in 2023, correlation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were applied to identify the dominant meteorological drivers of PHS. On this basis, an evaluation model for pre-harvest sprouting rate (PHSR) in winter wheat was developted, followed by systematic error analysis. 【Result】The PHS experiment indicated that the PHS rate of winter wheat followed a Logistic growth curve over time. The PHS rate showed significant correlations with cumulative precipitation, mean temperature, and the mean sunshine duration, with correlation coefficients of 0.416 (P<0.01), 0.318 (P<0.05), and -0.303 (P<0.05), respectively. Based on experimental data and key meteorological factors, a PHSR assessment model was developed for winter wheat during the maturity-harvest period under persistent rainfall disasters. The model demonstrated a correlation coefficient of 0.85 (P<0.01) between simulated and observed values, with a mean absolute error of 1.91% and a mean relative error of 4.98%. The simulated PHS rates for typical years were in good agreement with records from published literatures. Spatially, PHS risk during the maturity-harvest period showed an obvious spatial pattern of high values in the southern Henan and low values in northern Henan. Among the selected years, the highest provincial average PHS rate was recorded in 1991, followed by 2023. 【Conclusion】By coupling the dynamic PHS response derived from experimental with key meteorological forcing factors, this study developed a quantitative evaluation and prediction method for the PHS rate of winter wheat under persistent rainfall disasters has been established. The method could be applied to risk zoning, pre-disaster early warning and post-disaster quantitative assessment of PHS triggered by persistent rainfall disasters during the maturity-harvest period of winter wheat in Henan Province.

Key words: pre-harvest sprouting rate, winter wheat, maturity-harvest period, persistent rainfall disaster, meteorological factors, assessment model

彭记永, 商东耀, 李军玲, 薛昌颖, 胡莉婷, 余卫东. 河南省冬小麦成熟期-收获期连阴雨灾害穗发芽率评估模型[J]. 中国农业科学, 2026, 59(21): 4765-4783.

PENG JiYong, SHANG DongYao, LI JunLing, XUE ChangYing, HU LiTing, YU WeiDong. Assessment Model for Pre-Harvest Sprouting of Winter Wheat Due to Persistent Rainfall Disasters During Maturity-Harvest Period in Henan Province[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(21): 4765-4783.

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河南省典型年份穗发芽率历史文献数据和模拟数据对比"

年份 Year	模拟数据 Simulated value	河南省历史典型年份连阴雨灾害冬小麦穗发芽情况 Historical records of pre-harvest sprouting rate in typical years of Henan Province
2009	南阳、驻马店、信阳三市平均穗发芽率为34.8%，南阳为41.4% The average pre-harvest sprouting rate in Nanyang, Zhumadian, and Xinyang is 34.8%, with Nanyang recording a rate of 41.4%	南阳、驻马店、信阳等受灾面积高达1500多亩（1×10⁶ hm²），占5地小麦总面积的53%，占全省小麦总面积的20%，其中受灾最严重的南阳，90%的小麦质量达不到国家规定的收购标准。南阳芽麦情况较为严重，面积约占85%，大面积萌动，但出芽情况并不多，平均发芽小麦占全部小麦的50%左右^[35-36] The affected areas in Nanyang, Zhumadian, and Xinyang cover more than 1,500 mu, accounting for 53% of the total wheat area in the five regions and 20% of the total wheat area in the province. Among them, Nanyang, which suffered the most severe damage, has 90% of its wheat quality failing to meet the national purchase standards. The situation of sprouted wheat in Nanyang is more serious, with an area accounting for about 85%. A large area of wheat has sprouted, but the sprouting situation is not extensive, with an average of about 50% of the total wheat sprouting
2013	驻马店、南阳、信阳、平顶山、周口、漯河平均21.0% The average is 21.0% in Zhumadian, Nanyang, Xinyang, Pingdingshan, Zhoukou, and Luohe	2013年麦收期间，我国北方地区遭遇强降雨，各小麦主产区均出现不同程度的小麦萌动、发芽迹象。监测显示，河南南部受灾较为严重，局部地区芽麦比例高达30%—40%^[37] During the wheat harvest period in 2013, northern China experienced heavy rainfall, leading to varying degrees of sprouting and germination of wheat in major wheat-producing areas. Monitoring showed that southern Henan was severely affected, with the proportion of sprouted wheat reaching as high as 30% to 40% in some areas
2015	信阳平均穗发芽率为23.1% The average pre-harvest sprouting rate in Xinyang and Nanyang is 23.1%	南阳、信阳、驻马店、周口、许昌、漯河、平顶山等7市因新麦在收获期遭遇连阴雨天气，部分小麦不完善粒超过国家规定标准，特别是信阳、南阳地区超七成小麦不完善粒超标^[38-39] Due to continuous rainy weather during the harvest period, the defected kernels of wheat in some parts of Nanyang, Xinyang, Zhumadian, Zhoukou, Xuchang, Luohe, and Pingdingshan exceeded the national standard. Especially in Xinyang and Nanyang, over 70% of the wheat had defected kernels exceeding the standard
2016	豫北、豫中、豫东、豫南穗发芽率分别为18.3%、5.9%、6.8%、9.3% The preharvest sprouting rates in northern, central, eastern, and southern Henan are 21.9%, 4.0%, 5.9%, and 14.8%, respectively	根据河南省粮食局检测统计，豫中、豫东、豫北大部分地区出现小麦萌动甚至出芽现象，河南省有14个省辖市、7个直管县小麦不完善粒占比超过20%^[40] According to the inspection and statistics from the Henan Provincial Grain Bureau, sprouting or even budding of wheat has occurred in most areas of central, eastern, and northern Henan. In 14 provincial cities and 7 directly administered counties in Henan Province, the proportion of defected kernels in wheat exceeds 20%
2018	新野、唐河、驻马店平均穗发芽率分别为6.7%、3.2%、15.2% The average pre-harvest sprouting rates of Xinye, Tanghe, and Zhumadian are 6.7%, 3.2%, and 15.2%, respectively	新野县、唐河县约20%小麦出芽；驻马店穗发芽的约10%^[41] About 20% of the wheat in Xinye County and Tanghe County has sprouted; about 10% of the wheat in Zhumadian has sprouted
2023	全省平均穗发芽率33.0%，漯河市42.0% The average pre-harvest sprouting rate across the province is 32.6%, with Luohe City recording a rate of 47.7%	天气原因导致2023年河南省不完善粒均值高达34.6%^[42]，漯河市平均生芽率48.5%^[43] Due to weather reasons, the average value of defected kernels in Henan Province in 2023 reached 34.6%, and the average sprouting rate in Luohe City was 48.5%

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试验品种 Experimental variety	品质特性 Variety quality characteristic	冬春性 Winter-spring characteristic	2023—2024		2024—2025
试验品种 Experimental variety	品质特性 Variety quality characteristic	冬春性 Winter-spring characteristic	播种日期（月-日） Sowing date (Month-day)	成熟日期（月-日） Maturity date (Month-day)	播种日期（月-日） Sowing date (Month-day)	成熟日期（月-日） Maturity date (Month-day)
新麦26 Xinmai26	强筋 Strong-gluten wheat	半冬性 Semi-winter wheat	10-16	05-23	10-22	05-20
矮抗58 Aikang58	强筋 Strong-gluten wheat	半冬性 Semi-winter wheat	10-16	05-22	10-22	05-19
扬麦15 Yangmai15	弱筋 Weak-gluten wheat	春性 Spring wheat	10-16	05-20	10-22	05-20

极值 Extreme value	气象要素 Meteorological element
极值 Extreme value	连阴雨天数 Number of persistent rainfalls (t，d)	过程降水量 Process precipitation (P，mm)	日平均日照时数 Mean sunshine duration (S，h)	日平均气温 Mean temperature (T，℃)	日平均空气相对湿度 Mean relative air humidity (RH，%)	日平均风速 Mean wind speed (U，m·s^-1)
平均值Mean value	4.3	62.2	1.8	20.1	85.0	2.4
最大值Maximum value	15.0	372.9	10.8	27.7	98.0	7.5
最小值Minimum value	3.0	30.0	0	13.1	56.3	0

作物品种 Crop variety	模型参数Model parameter
作物品种 Crop variety	α	β	γ	R²	RMSE (%)
矮抗58 Aikang58	1.088	0.953	-4.656	0.995	2.539
扬麦15 Yangmai15	1.091	0.971	-4.609	0.995	2.655
新麦26 Xinmai26	1.194	0.785	-4.259	0.988	3.580

穗发芽率等级 Grade of pre-harvest sprouting rate	PHSRt百分位数 Percentile of PHSRt	赋值 Assignment	危害表现 Hazard manifestation
无None	[0.0%, 1.0%)	0	无连阴雨过程发生，或者仅少部分籽粒萌动，发芽率<1.0% No persistent rainfall disasters occur, or only a small portion of the kernels sprout, with a germination rate of less than 1.0%
轻度Minor	[1.0%, 30.0%)	1	大部分籽粒萌动，1.0%—8.0%籽粒发芽 Most of the kernels are germinating, with 1.0% to 8.0% of the kernels sprouting
中度Moderate	[30.0%, 60.0%)	2	8.0%—19.0%籽粒发芽 8.0%—19.0% of the kernels have sprouted
重度Severe	[60.0%, 90.0%)	3	19.0%—40.0%籽粒发芽 19.0%—40.0% of the kernels have sprouted
严重Extreme	≥90.0%	4	40.0%及以上籽粒发芽 40.0% or more of the kernels have sprouted

作物品种 Crop variety	模型参数Model parameter
作物品种 Crop variety	年份 Year	α	β	γ	R²	RMSE
矮抗58 Aikang58	2024	1.088	0.829	-4.253	0.994	3.150
矮抗58 Aikang58	2025	1.087	1.061	-4.995	0.997	2.303
扬麦15 Yangmai15	2024	1.254	0.652	-3.693	0.971	5.621
扬麦15 Yangmai15	2025	1.134	0.995	-5.154	0.998	2.010
新麦26 Xinmai26	2024	1.133	0.959	-4.404	0.993	3.336
新麦26 Xinmai26	2025	1.058	0.986	-4.826	0.997	2.471