河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹影响因子敏感性及贡献率分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2016.14.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】农业水资源高效利用是保障国家粮食和水资源安全的重要途径，作物用水评价是农业用水管理的主要研究课题之一。水足迹为农业用水评价提供了新的指标体系，对作物生产水足迹影响因素进行定量评价有助于进行水足迹调控，实现农业水资源高效利用。【方法】以河套灌区为研究区域，基于水足迹概念体系，利用改进的水足迹量化方法对河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹进行量化并分析其在研究时段内的演变特征；利用单因素轮换（One-At-A-Time，OAT）敏感性分析方法和贡献率分析方法探究气候、农业生产投入因子和水资源利用效率对春小麦生产水足迹变化的驱动力。【结果】春小麦生产水足迹在研究时段内呈显著下降趋势，从1981年的4.71 m³·kg^-1，下降到2010年的1.52 m³·kg^-1；同时年际变化呈现出较为明显的阶段性特征，可划分为波动性下降期（1981—1987年）、快速下降期（1988—1995年）、缓慢下降期（1996—2010年），该变化规律与灌区农业生产和灌溉水平的发展特征基本一致；从水足迹的蓝、绿水构成来看，河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹中蓝水足迹比例超过90%，而绿水足迹比例不足10%，这与灌区农业生产用水特征相一致。敏感性分析显示，水足迹对各个因子的敏感性差别十分显著，日照时数、相对湿度、降水量、灌溉水利用系数和单位面积化肥用量在±20%波动的情况下，春小麦生产水足迹的波动范围分别为±30%、±24%、±2%、±63%和±4%，春小麦生产水足迹对灌溉水利用系数、日照时数和相对湿度的敏感性较高，对其余影响因子的敏感性较低。贡献率分析显示，研究时段内相对湿度的减少和降水量的增加促使春小麦生产水足迹的增加。而日照时数的下降、化肥使用量以及灌区用水效率的提高促使了春小麦生产水足迹的降低。定量分析结果显示，化肥和灌溉水利用系数对春小麦生产水足迹变化的贡献率分别为-36.89%和-39.42%，而气候因子的综合贡献率仅为2.80%，对研究时段内春小麦生产水足迹下降贡献率最大的是灌溉水利用系数，其次为单位面积化肥用量，而相对湿度、日照时数和降水量三者的贡献率相近，贡献率最小的是日照时数，这主要是因为日照时数在研究时段内的变率较小。【结论】气候、农业生产资料投入和水资源利用效率是影响作物生产水足迹的主要因素，就河套灌区而言，农业生产资料投入和水资源利用效率的提高是促使灌区春小麦生产水足迹下降的主要因素，而气候因子在研究时段内对春小麦生产水足迹的影响较小。该研究结果可为水足迹调控提供理论依据与实践参考。

关键词: 水足迹, 敏感性分析, 贡献率分析, 河套灌区, 春小麦

Abstract: 【Objective】The efficient utilization of agricultural water resources is a key measure to guarantee national food and water security. Crop water use efficiency evaluation is one of the main research fields of agricultural water management. Water footprint provides a new index for agricultural water use evaluation, and the quantitative evaluation on the influencing factors of crop water footprint will be helpful to the implementation of water footprint control and improvement of the agricultural water use efficiency. 【Method】Based on the concept of water footprint, the water footprint of spring wheat in Hetao irrigation district was quantified by using an improved calculation method and the temporal variation was analyzed. Sensitivity and contribution rate analysis were used to quantify the relationship between crop water footprint and its influencing factors. 【Result】The results show that water footprint of wheat declined significantly during the study period. It decreased from 4.71 m³·kg^-1 in 1981 to 1.52 m³·kg^-1 in 2010. The variation of water footprint of wheat displayed an obvious stage characteristic. It can be divided into three stages: fluctuate declining stage (1981-1987), rapid declining stage (1988-1995) and slow declining stage (1996-2010). And this variation characteristic was consistent with the variation of agricultural production and irrigation level in Hetao irrigation district. The blue water footprint accounted for the larger proportion (more than 90%), while for the share of green water footprint it was relatively small. Therefore, the production of wheat in the Hetao irrigation district mainly depended on blue water (irrigation water). Sensitivity analysis shows that the difference of sensitivity between the influencing factors was significant. The variations of water footprint of spring wheat was ±30%, ±24%, ±2%, ±63% and ±4% when sunshine hours, relative humidity, precipitation, irrigation water use coefficient and fertilizer rate per unit area varied at ±20%. Irrigation water use coefficient is the most sensitivity factor of wheat water footprint, following by sunshine hours, relative humidity, fertilizer usage and precipitation. Contribution analysis results show that the decline of relative humidity and the increase of precipitation led to the increase of wheat water footprint. On the contrary, the decrease of sunshine hours combined with the increase of fertilizer usage and irrigation water use efficiency led to the decrease of wheat water footprint. The contribution rates of fertilizer and irrigation water use coefficient were -36.89% and -39.42%, respectively, while the contribution rate of the total climatic factors was 2.80%. The increase of utilization coefficient of irrigation water had the largest contribution rate to the decrease of wheat water footprint during the study period, followed by fertilizer usage. The relative humidity, sunshine hours and precipitation had similar contribution rate to the variation of wheat water footprint. 【Conclusion】 The main kinds of influencing factors of crop water footprint are climate, agricultural production inputs and water use efficiency. As for Hetao irrigation district, the improvement of agricultural production and water use efficiency are the major driving forces that cause the variation of wheat water footprint in Hetao irrigation district, while the climate factors have little effect on wheat water footprint. The results of this study could provide reference for the water footprint control.

Key words: water footprint, sensitivity analysis, contribution rate analysis, Hetao irrigation district, spring wheat

孙世坤，刘文艳，刘静，王玉宝，陈帝伊，吴普特. 河套灌区春小麦生产水足迹影响因子敏感性及贡献率分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2016, 49(14): 2751-2762.

SUN Shi-kun, LIU Wen-yan, LIU jing, WANG Yu-bao, CHEN Di-yi, WU Pu-te. Sensitivity and Contribution Rate Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Spring Wheat Water Footprint in Hetao Irrigation District[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2016, 49(14): 2751-2762.

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