旱地春小麦产量对不同生育阶段温度变化的响应模拟

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.05.004

中国农业科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (5): 904-916.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.05.004

• 耕作栽培·生理生化·农业信息技术 • 上一篇下一篇

旱地春小麦产量对不同生育阶段温度变化的响应模拟

王钧^1,²,李广¹(),闫丽娟³,刘强²,聂志刚²

¹ 甘肃农业大学林学院,兰州730070
² 甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,兰州 730070
³ 甘肃农业大学农学院,兰州 730070

收稿日期:2019-08-02 接受日期:2019-09-12 出版日期:2020-03-01 发布日期:2020-03-14
通讯作者: 李广
作者简介:王钧,E-mail：julianwong82@163.com。
基金资助:
甘肃农业大学学科建设基金(GAU-XKJS2018258);国家自然科学基金(31660348);甘肃省重点研发计划(18YF1NA070);甘肃省高等学校协同创新团队项目(2018C-16);甘肃省财政专项(GSCZZ-20160909);甘肃省财政专项(GSCZZ-20160909);甘肃农业大学青年导师基金项目(GAU-QNDS-201702);甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院发展基金项目(GAU-XKFZJJ-2020-12);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(18JR3RA169)

Simulation of Spring Wheat Yield Response to Temperature Changes of Different Growth Stages in Drylands

WANG Jun^1,²,LI Guang¹(),YAN LiJuan³,LIU Qiang²,NIE ZhiGang²

¹ College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070
² College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070
³ Agronomy College, Gansu Agriculture University, Lanzhou 730070

Received:2019-08-02 Accepted:2019-09-12 Online:2020-03-01 Published:2020-03-14
Contact: Guang LI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】定量分析陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区旱地春小麦不同生育阶段温度变化对小麦产量的影响,为陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区制定合理种植模式提供理论指导和决策依据。【方法】基于灰色关联度分析不同生育阶段温度与旱地春小麦产量间的关联性,确定影响旱地春小麦产量的关键生育阶段。应用APSIM（Agricultural Production System Simulator）模型模拟不同生育阶段温度变化条件下春小麦的产量,通过二次多项回归分析、单因素边际效应分析方法研究旱地春小麦产量对不同生育阶段温度变化的响应机制。【结果】（1）APSIM模型对模拟陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区不同播种期旱地春小麦的产量和生育期具有较高的适用性,模拟产量和生育期的均方根误差（RMSE）平均值分别为39.95 kg?hm ^-1和2.78 d,归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）平均值分别为1.55%和1.87%,模型有效性指数（M_E）平均值分别为0.73和0.83;（2）陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区旱地春小麦全生育期平均温度总体呈上升趋势,但不同生育阶段的温度增幅各不相同,播种—出苗、出苗—分蘖、分蘖—拔节、拔节—孕穗、孕穗—开花、开花—灌浆和灌浆—成熟阶段的平均气温倾向率分别为0.44℃?（10a） ^-1、0.34℃?（10a） ^-1、0.17℃?（10a） ^-1、0.41℃?（10a） ^-1、0.49℃?（10a） ^-1、0.52℃?（10a） ^-1和0.35℃?（10a） ^-1;（3）不同生育阶段温度变化对旱地春小麦产量的影响大小依次为灌浆—成熟、开花—灌浆、播种—出苗、孕穗—开花、拔节—孕穗、出苗—分蘖、休闲和分蘖—拔节阶段;（4）在其他生育阶段温度不变的条件下,播种—出苗阶段温度每提高0.5℃,春小麦产量平均增加0.45%;孕穗—开花阶段温度每提高0.5℃,春小麦产量平均减少0.34%。开花—灌浆阶段温度每提高0.5℃,春小麦产量平均减少0.65%;灌浆—成熟阶段温度每增加0.5℃,春小麦产量平均减少1.09%。【结论】APSIM模型对陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区不同播种期旱地春小麦的产量和主要生育期有较好的模拟效果。研究区旱地春小麦全生育期平均温度总体呈上升趋势,但不同生育阶段温度增幅不同。不同生育阶段温度变化对春小麦生长和发育影响不同。播种—出苗阶段增温倾向于增产,其他阶段增温倾向于减产。

关键词: 春小麦产量, 不同生育时期, 温度变化, APSIM模型, 灰色关联度分析

Abstract:

【Objective】This research quantitatively analyzed the effects of temperature changes in different growth stages on the yield of spring wheat in the Loess Plateau Gully Region of Central Gansu, so as to provide theoretical guidance and decision- making basis for making reasonable cropping pattern in the Loess Plateau Gully Region of Central Gansu 【Method】Specifically, it investigated the relationship between temperature changes in different growth stages and the yield of spring wheat in dryland based on grey relational analysis, so as to identify the key growth stages of spring wheat. The yield of spring wheat was simulated using the APSIM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) model under different temperature conditions in different growth stages. The mechanism of yield response to temperature changes in different growth stages was studied through quadratic polynomial regression analysis and single factor marginal effect analysis. 【Result】(1) The results showed that the APSIM model had good applicability in simulating yield and growth stages of spring wheat in the Loess Plateau Gully Region of Central Gansu. The values of the average root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and model effectiveness index (ME) of the yield of the simulation model were 39.95 kg?hm ^-1, 1.55% and 0.73, respectively. The values of the RMSE, NRMSE, and ME of the simulated model phenology dates were 2.78 d, 1.87% and 0.83, respectively. (2)The average temperature increased steadily during all growth stages of spring wheat in the Loess Plateau Gully Region of Central Gansu, and the average temperatures of the different growth stages showed an increasing trend. The increase of average annual temperature were 0.44℃?(10a) ^-1, 0.34℃?(10a) ^-1, 0.17℃?(10a) ^-1, 0.41℃?(10a) ^-1, 0.49℃?(10a) ^-1, 0.52℃?(10a) ^-1 and 0.35℃?(10a) ^-1 in sowing-emergence, emergence-tillering, tillering-jointing, jointing-booting, booting-flowering, flowering-grain filling, grain filling-maturity, respectively. (3) The importance of temperature changes in different growth stages on the yield of spring wheat were ranked as follows: grain filling-maturity, flowering-grain filling, sowing-emergence, booting- flowering, jointing-booting, emergence- tillering, fallow, and the tillering-jointing stage. (4) Under constant temperatures at the other growth stages, a temperature increase of 0.5℃ during the sowing-emergence stage could increase the wheat yield by 0.45%; A temperature increase of 0.5℃ during the booting-flowering stage could reduce the wheat yield by 0.34%; a temperature increase of 0.5℃ during the flowering-filling stage could reduce the wheat yield by 0.65%; A temperature increase of 0.5℃ during the filling-maturity stage could reduce the wheat yield by 1.09%. When temperature changes during the sowing-emergence and booting-flowering stages were the same, the effects of the temperature changes on the yield of spring wheat were similar. 【Conclusion】APSIM model has achiedved good simulation results on the yield and growth stages of spring wheat of different sowing dates in the Loess Plateau Gully Region of Central Gansu. The trend of temperature increase obviously existed in the study area during the whole growth stages of spring wheat, but temperature increment was different in different growth stages.The effects of temperature changes in different growth stages on the yield of spring wheat were different. Warming was beneficial to increasing yield during sowing to emergence, but warming led to yield reduction during other growth stages.

Key words: spring wheat yield, different growth stages, temperature change, APSIM, grey relation analysis

王钧,李广,闫丽娟,刘强,聂志刚. 旱地春小麦产量对不同生育阶段温度变化的响应模拟[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(5): 904-916.

WANG Jun,LI Guang,YAN LiJuan,LIU Qiang,NIE ZhiGang. Simulation of Spring Wheat Yield Response to Temperature Changes of Different Growth Stages in Drylands[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(5): 904-916.

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参数名称Parameters name	参数值 Value	单位Unit
春化敏感因子Vernalization sensitivity	1.0	—
光周期敏感因子 Photoperiod sensitivity	2.0	—
单位茎秆干物质的籽粒数 Grains per gram stem	25.0	kernel·g^-1·stem^-1
潜在的籽粒灌浆速度Potential grain filling rate	0.001	g·grain^-1·d^-1
灌浆期到成熟期的积温Thermal time start filling to mature	580	℃·d
最大灌浆速率Maximum grain filling rate	2.30	mg·grain^-1·d^-1
分蘖重Weight of tiller	1.22	g·tiller^-1
单株重Weight of single plant	4	g
株高Stem length	1000	mm
最大谷粒重 Max grain size	0.045	g

土层深度Soil depth (cm)	容重 Bulk density (g·cm^-3)	风干含水量 Air dry (mm·mm^-1)	萎蔫系数 Wilting coefficient (mm·mm^-1)	田间最大持水量 Drained upper limit (mm·mm^-1)	饱和含水量 Saturated moisture (mm·mm^-1)	土壤导水率 Soil hydraulic conductivity (mm·h^-1)	小麦有效水分下限 Wheat low limit (mm·mm^-1)
0-5	1.290	0.013	0.090	0.274	0.463	0.600	0.090
5-10	1.226	0.013	0.090	0.274	0.487	0.600	0.090
10-30	1.325	0.046	0.090	0.270	0.450	0.600	0.090
30-50	1.200	0.071	0.090	0.269	0.497	0.600	0.090
50-80	1.140	0.087	0.090	0.261	0.520	0.600	0.100
80-110	1.140	0.103	0.110	0.269	0.520	0.600	0.115
110-140	1.250	0.107	0.110	0.260	0.480	0.600	0.125
140-170	1.120	0.115	0.120	0.257	0.529	0.600	0.180
170-200	1.100	0.127	0.130	0.261	0.531	0.600	0.220

播期 Sowing date	出苗期 Emergence			孕穗期Booting			开花期 Flowering			灌浆期Grain filling
播期 Sowing date	RMSE (d)	NRMSE (%)	M_E	RMSE (d)	NRMSE (%)	M_E	RMSE (d)	NRMSE (%)	M_E	RMSE (d)	NRMSE (%)	M_E
早播 Early sowing	3.46	3.71	0.68	2.52	1.55	0.90	2.83	1.62	0.80	2.00	1.09	0.92
正常播 Normal sowing	2.71	2.53	0.83	2.71	1.63	0.89	2.52	1.41	0.84	2.38	1.28	0.91
晚播 Late sowing	3.37	2.81	0.74	3.11	1.81	0.84	3.00	1.62	0.81	2.71	1.41	0.83

播期 Sowing dates	模拟产量平均值 (kg·hm^-2)	实测产量平均值 (kg·hm^-2)	RMSE (kg·hm^-2)	NRMSE (%)	M_E
早播Early sowing	2830.45	2846.29	45.08	1.59	0.71
正常播Normal sowing	2537.30	2498.45	39.15	1.54	0.73
晚播Late sowing	2319.81	2313.87	35.61	1.53	0.74

	休闲期 Fallow	播种—出苗 Sowing -Emergence	出苗—分蘖 Emergence -Tillering	分蘖—拔节 Tillering -Jointing	拔节—孕穗 Jointing- Booting	孕穗—开花 Booting- Flowering	开花—灌浆 Flowering- Grain filling	灌浆—成熟 Grain filling -Maturity	产量 Yield
休闲期 Fallow	1.000	0.711	0.719	0.702	0.709	0.716	0.708	0.726	0.641
播种—出苗 Sowing-Emergence	0.711	1.000	0.742	0.681	0.713	0.748	0.693	0.754	0.683
出苗—分蘖 Emergence-Tillering	0.718	0.742	1.000	0.720	0.741	0.739	0.691	0.708	0.652
分蘖—拔节 Tillering-Jointing	0.702	0.679	0.721	1.000	0.708	0.726	0.687	0.651	0.629
拔节—孕穗 Jointing- Booting	0.709	0.713	0.741	0.708	1.000	0.728	0.648	0.721	0.659
孕穗—开花 Booting- Flowering	0.718	0.745	0.739	0.725	0.728	1.000	0.713	0.748	0.667
开花-灌浆 Flowering-Grain filling	0.709	0.691	0.695	0.688	0.649	0.713	1.000	0.737	0.692
灌浆-成熟 Grain filling-Maturity	0.729	0.751	0.709	0.653	0.723	0.751	0.739	1.000	0.728
产量 Yield	0.637	0.688	0.659	0.631	0.669	0.671	0.698	0.731	1.000

旱地春小麦产量对不同生育阶段温度变化的响应模拟

Simulation of Spring Wheat Yield Response to Temperature Changes of Different Growth Stages in Drylands

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不同处理 Different treatments (℃)	不同生育阶段小麦产量 Wheat yield of different growth stages (kg∙hm^-2)
不同处理 Different treatments (℃)	播种-出苗 Sowing-Emergence	孕穗-开花 Booting-Flowering	开花-灌浆 Flowering-Grain filling	灌浆-成熟 Grain filling-Maturity
-2.5	2457.2±121.82a	2546.1±178.32a	2560.7±145.63a	2615.8±182.67a
-2	2464.9±138.71a	2539.2±140.13a	2556.9±137.82a	2606.2±171.43a
-1.5	2481.7±125.18a	2532.5±114.67a	2551.9±151.07a	2590.7±163.84a
-1	2490.9±164.38a	2523.5±182.97a	2544.3±165.34a	2574.3±151.55a
-0.5	2508.0±134.13a	2518.4±161.82a	2530.7±110.86a	2550.4±140.93a
0	2515.5±149.31a	2511.3±111.83a	2518.7±103.97a	2527.1±153.89a
0.5	2526.3±159.44a	2499.3±98.57a	2497.5±99.58a	2495.7±187.91a
1	2540.2±182.15a	2492.1±137.96a	2479.3±124.73a	2465.6±175.68a
1.5	2530.8±133.84a	2481.1±95.68a	2446.4±130.81a	2424.6±162.44a
2	2553.1±158.76a	2472.2±138.85a	2421.2±127.25a	2378.3±141.82a
2.5	2569.7± 175.37a	2461.5±104.81a	2399.3±93.19a	2344.3±123.15b

[1]	祝令晓,刘连涛,张永江,孙红春,张科,白志英,董合忠,李存东. 化学封顶对棉花株型的调控及评价指标筛选[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(20): 4152-4163.
[2]	王士强,胡银岗,佘奎军,周琳璘,孟凡磊. 小麦抗旱相关农艺性状和生理生化性状的灰色关联度分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2007, 40(11): 2452-2459 .