|
|
|
|
|
| Water diversion and agricultural production: Evidence from China |
|
YANG Rui1, XU Hang2#
|
1 College of Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R.China
2 College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, P.R.China
|
|
|
|
|
摘要
水资源调配是一个缓解水资源短缺问题的潜在途径。众所周知，中国的南水北调工程是世界上最大的水资源调配工程，该工程将水资源从南方输送到了北方。本文利用中国黄淮海平原2000-2020年的地级市面板数据，采用双重差分法实证分析了南水北调对农业生产的影响。估算结果表明，南水北调可以显著提高农业增加值。在考虑混淆政策、替代变量、子样本估计和更换估计方法时，基准模型的估计结果依然稳健。本文的实证分析进一步发现，潜在的作用机制可能是南水北调增加了经济作物，但减少了粮食作物。异质性分析表明，在平均气温较高或农田生产潜力较大的地区，南水北调对农业增加值的影响较小，而在日照时间长或坡度大的地区，南水北调对农业增加值的影响较大。由于粮食作物附加值低，为进一步保障粮食安全，政府需要通过粮食生产的供水补贴来保障粮食安全。
Abstract
Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources. China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD) is the largest water diversion project worldwide. Based on the prefecture-level data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020, this study employs an empirical strategy of Differences-in-Differences (DID) to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production. The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production, measured by the agricultural value added. The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed, an alternative outcome is used, subsamples are estimated, and alternative estimation techniques are employed. This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential, SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low. In contrast, in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes, SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large. Given the low added value of grain crops, the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.
|
|
Received: 31 October 2022
Accepted: 01 March 2023
|
| Fund: This work was supported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China (202207211210319). |
| About author: YANG Rui, E-mail: rui@cau.edu.cn; #Correspondence XU hang, E-mail: xuhang@nwafu.edu.cn |
Cite this article:
YANG Rui, XU Hang.
2023.
Water diversion and agricultural production: Evidence from China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 22(4): 1244-1257.
|
Abadie A. 2021. Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59, 391–425.
Athey S, Imbens G W. 2006. Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models. Econometrica, 74, 431–497.
Barrios S, Ouattara B, Strobl E. 2008. The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: Is it different for Africa? Food Policy, 33, 287–298.
Cavallo E, Galiani S, Noy I, Pantano J. 2013. Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95, 1549–1561.
Distefano T, Kelly S. 2017. Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth. Ecological Economics, 142, 130–147.
Du W, Fan Y, Liu X, Park S C, Tang X. 2019. A game-based production operation model for water resource management: An analysis of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 1482–1493.
Du Z, Ge L, Ng A H M, Lian X, Zhu Q, Horgan F G, Zhang Q. 2021. Analysis of the impact of the South-to-North water diversion project on water balance and land subsidence in Beijing, China between 2007 and 2020. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 126990.
Eamen L, Brouwer R, Razavi S. 2020. The economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change: A transboundary river basin supply-side input–output analysis. Ecological Economics, 172, 106532.
Feng D, Zhao G. 2020. Footprint assessments on organic farming to improve ecological safety in the water source areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion project. Journal of Cleaner Production, 254, 120130.
Guo C, Chen Y, Gozlan R E, Liu H, Lu Y, Qu X, Xia W, Xiong F, Xie S, Wang L. 2020. Patterns of fish communities and water quality in impounded lakes of China’s south-to-north water diversion project. Science of the Total Environment, 713, 136515.
Hu X, Hu M, Zhu Y, Wang G, Xue B, Shrestha S. 2022. Phytoplankton community variation and ecological health assessment for impounded lakes along the eastern route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Journal of Environmental Management, 318, 115561.
Jia R. 2014. The legacies of forced freedom: China’s treaty ports. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96, 596–608.
Li D, Zuo Q, Wu Q, Li Q, Ma J. 2021. Achieving the tradeoffs between pollutant discharge and economic benefit of the Henan section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project through water resources-environment system management under uncertainty. Journal of Cleaner Production, 321, 128857.
Li Y, Cui Q, Li C, Wang X, Cai Y, Cui G, Yang Z. 2017. An improved multi-objective optimization model for supporting reservoir operation of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Science of the Total Environment, 575, 970–981.
Liu L, Xu X, Chen X. 2015. Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield in China during 1990–2010. Food Security, 7, 33–43.
Long D, Yang W, Scanlon B R, Zhao J, Liu D, Burek P, Pan Y, You L, Wada Y. 2020. South-to-North Water Diversion stabilizing Beijing’s groundwater levels. Nature Communications, 11, 3665.
NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 2001–2021. China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistical Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
Ngango J, Hong S. 2021. Adoption of small-scale irrigation technologies and its impact on land productivity: Evidence from Rwanda. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20, 2302–2312.
Nong X, Shao D, Zhong H, Liang J. 2020. Evaluation of water quality in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China using the water quality index (WQI) method. Water Research, 178, 115781.
Nunn N, Qian N. 2011. The potato’s contribution to population and urbanization: evidence from a historical experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 593–650.
Owusu-Sekyere E, Scheepers M E, Jordaan H. 2017. Economic water productivities along the dairy value chain in South Africa: Implications for sustainable and economically efficient water-use policies in the dairy industry. Ecological Economics, 134, 22–28.
Peng Z, Yin J, Zhang L, Zhao J, Liang Y, Wang H. 2020. Assessment of the socio-economic impact of a water diversion project for a water-receiving area. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 29, 1771–1784.
Qu X, Chen Y, Liu H, Xia W, Lu Y, Gang D D, Lin L S. 2020. A holistic assessment of water quality condition and spatiotemporal patterns in impounded lakes along the eastern route of China’s South-to-North water diversion project. Water Research, 185, 116275.
Sheng J, Wang H, Qiu W. 2022. Water quality and incentive coordination in water markets: The eastern route of China’s South-North Water Transfer Project. Journal of Hydrology, 607, 127526.
Sheng J, Webber M. 2021. Incentive coordination for transboundary water pollution control: The case of the middle route of China’s South-North water Transfer Project. Journal of Hydrology, 598, 125705.
Shi M, Paudel K P, Chen F. 2021. Mechanization and efficiency in rice production in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20, 1996–2008.
Su Q, Chen X. 2021. Efficiency analysis of metacoupling of water transfer based on the parallel data envelopment analysis model: A case of the South–North Water Transfer Project-Middle Route in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 313, 127952.
Wang J, Zhang C, Xiong L, Song G, Liu F. 2022. Changes of antibiotic occurrence and hydrochemistry in groundwater under the influence of the South-to-North Water Diversion (the Hutuo River, China). Science of the Total Environment, 832, 154779.
Xu H, Yang R. 2022. Does agricultural water conservation policy necessarily reduce agricultural water extraction? Evidence from China. Agricultural Water Management, 274, 107987.
Yang Y, Lei X, Long Y, Tian Y, Zhang Y, Yao Y, Hou X, Shi M, Wang P, Zhang C, Wang H, Quan J. 2020. A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the middle route of the South–North Water Transfer Project (China). Science of the Total Environment, 698, 134167.
Yang Z, Huang X, Fang G, Ye J, Lu C. 2021. Benefit evaluation of east route project of south to north water transfer based on trapezoid cloud model. Agricultural Water Management, 254, 106960.
Yin Y, Wang L, Wang Z, Tang Q, Piao S, Chen D, Xia J, Conradt T, Liu J, Wada Y, Cai X, Xie Z, Duan Q, Li X, Zhou J, Zhang J. 2020. Quantifying water scarcity in northern China within the context of climatic and societal changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion. Earth’s Future, 8, e2020EF001492.
Zang N, Zhu J, Wang X, Liao Y, Cao G, Li C, Liu Q, Yang Z. 2022. Eutrophication risk assessment considering joint effects of water quality and water quantity for a receiving reservoir in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 331, 129966.
Zhang C, Duan Q, Yeh P J F, Pan Y, Gong H, Gong W, Di Z, Lei X, Liao W, Huang Z, Zheng L, Guo X. 2020. The effectiveness of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Middle Route Project on water delivery and groundwater recovery in North China Plain. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR026759.
Zhang X, Wang G, Tan Z, Wang Y, Li Q. 2021. Effects of ecological protection and restoration on phytoplankton diversity in impounded lakes along the eastern route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Science of the Total Environment, 795, 148870.
Zhao Z, Gong X, Ding Q, Jin M, Wang Z, Lu S, Zhang L. 2021. Environmental implications from the priority pollutants screening in impoundment reservoir along the eastern route of China’s south-to-north water diversion project. Science of the Total Environment, 794, 148700.
Zhao Z Y, Zuo J, Zillante G. 2017. Transformation of water resource management: A case study of the South-to-North Water Diversion project. Journal of Cleaner Production, 163, 136–145.
Zhu J, Zhang Z, Lei X, Jing X, Wang H, Yan P. 2021. Ecological scheduling of the middle route of south-to-north water diversion project based on a reinforcement learning model. Journal of Hydrology, 596, 126107.
Zhuang W, Ying S C, Frie A L, Wang Q, Song J, Liu Y, Chen Q, Lai X. 2019. Distribution, pollution status, and source apportionment of trace metals in lake sediments under the influence of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, China. Science of the Total Environment, 671, 108–118.
|
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
