|
|
|
|
|
| China’s meat and grain imports during 2000–2012 and beyond: A comparative perspective |
| YU Wu-sheng, CAO Li-juan |
1、Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C 1958, Denmark
2、College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, P.R.China
3、China Center for Food Security Research, Nanjing Agricultural Universtiy, Nanjing 210095, P.R.China |
|
|
|
摘要 This paper provides a review on China’s meat trade for the 2000–2012 period and discusses its future development, with reference to China’s grain trade. With marginal decreases in meat exports and slight increases in their imports, China’s net imports of major meat products (including pork, beef, mutton and poultry but excluding meat offal) were just below 1 million tons in 2012, dwarfed by China’s net imports of grains which reached 66.7 million tons in the same year. This slow growth in meat trade seems to contradict earlier expectations on increasing meat demand and imports, based upon projected shifts in consumption patterns driven by rapid per capita income growth. Several plausible explanations of this paradoxical trade pattern are offered, including mass imports of feed grains, persistent (but shrinking) gaps between Chinese and international meat prices, tariff barriers, and non-tariff measures. In the near future China may not be able to maintain such a lower profile on the world meat markets, as per capita income is projected to continue to rise and domestic production cost advantages erode due to rising labor costs. A model-based projection exercise indicates that under plausible assumptions China’s meat imports may rise sharply by 2030.
Abstract This paper provides a review on China’s meat trade for the 2000–2012 period and discusses its future development, with reference to China’s grain trade. With marginal decreases in meat exports and slight increases in their imports, China’s net imports of major meat products (including pork, beef, mutton and poultry but excluding meat offal) were just below 1 million tons in 2012, dwarfed by China’s net imports of grains which reached 66.7 million tons in the same year. This slow growth in meat trade seems to contradict earlier expectations on increasing meat demand and imports, based upon projected shifts in consumption patterns driven by rapid per capita income growth. Several plausible explanations of this paradoxical trade pattern are offered, including mass imports of feed grains, persistent (but shrinking) gaps between Chinese and international meat prices, tariff barriers, and non-tariff measures. In the near future China may not be able to maintain such a lower profile on the world meat markets, as per capita income is projected to continue to rise and domestic production cost advantages erode due to rising labor costs. A model-based projection exercise indicates that under plausible assumptions China’s meat imports may rise sharply by 2030.
|
|
Received: 22 September 2014
Accepted:
|
| Fund: The financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71203096 and 71303112), the Doctoral Program of Higher Education, China (20120097120042 and 20123204120017), as well as China Scholarship Council for funding her visiting stay at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark |
|
Corresponding Authors:
YU Wu-sheng, Tel: +45-35336812,E-mail: wusheng@ifro.ku.dk
E-mail: wusheng@ifro.ku.dk
|
Cite this article:
YU Wu-sheng, CAO Li-juan.
2015.
China’s meat and grain imports during 2000–2012 and beyond: A comparative perspective. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 14(6): 1101-1114.
|
| Anderson K, Dimaranan B, Hertel T W, Martin W. 1997. Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: A global, economywideperspective. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41, 19-44Anderson K, Strutt A. 2014. Food security policy options forChina: lessons from other countries. Food Policy, 49, 50-58Bach C F, Dimaranan B, Hertel T W, Martin W. 2000. Marketgrowth, structural change, and the gains from the Uruguayround. Review of International Economics, 8, 295-310Chen W, Marchant M, Song B. 2009. Impacts of China’s foodconsumption on U.S. soybean exports. [2014-07-29]. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/46820Chen Y. 2004. China’s Food: Supply, Demand and Projections.China Agriculture Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)Coyle W, Gehlhar M, Hertel T W, Yu W, Wang Z. 1998.Understanding the determinants of structural changein world food markets. American Journal of AgriculturalEconomics, 80, 1051-1061Cranfield J, Eales J S, Hertel T W, Preckel P V. 2003. Modelselection when estimating and predicting consumerdemands using international cross section data. EmpiricalEconomics, 28, 353-364Fan S, Mercedita A S. 1997. Why projections on China’sfuture food supply and demand differ. Australian Journalof Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41, 169-190FAO. 2014a. FAO Prices. [2014-07-09]. http://www.fao.org/economic/est/pricesFAO. 2014b. FAOSTAT. [2014-07-09]. http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/FB/BC/EFouré J, Bénassy-Quéré A, Fontagné L. 2012. The great shift:macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the2050 horizon. [2014-03-25]. http://www.cepii.org/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-03.pdfFouré J, Bénassy-Quéré A, Fontagné L. 2013. Modellingthe world economy at the 2050 horizon. Economics ofTransition, 21, 617-654Fuller F. 1997. Policy and projection model for the meat sectorin the People’s Republic of China. [2014-03-25]. http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/97tr36.pdfFuller F, Hayes D, Smith D. 2000. Reconciling Chinese meatproduction and consumption data. Economic Developmentand Cultural Change, 49, 23-43Gale F, Marti D, Hu D. 2012. China’s volatile pork industry.[2014-03-25]. http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/262067/ldpm21101_1_.pdfHansen J, Gale F. 2014. China in the next decade: rising meatdemand and growing imports of feed. [2014-03-25]. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2014-april/china-in-thenext-decade-rising-meat-demand-and-growing-imports-offeed.aspx#.VRK8vfRffrsHansen J, Tuan F, Somwaru A. 2009. Impact of China’sagriculture policies on domestic and world commoditymarkets. Paper presented to the International Associationof Agricultural Economics Conference. August, 2009.Beijing, China.Hertel T W. 1997. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling andApplications. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA.Huang S, Gale F. 2009. Food demand in China: income, quality,and nutrient effects. China Agricultural Economic Review,1, 395-409Liu X, Aguilar R S, Chen S, Miranda M J. 2013. The globalfood price crisis and China-world rice market integration: aspatial-temporal rational expectations equilibrium model.Paper presented to the Agricultural & Applied EconomicsAssociation’s 2013 AAEA & CAES Joint Annual Meeting.August, 2013. Washington, D.C.Liu X, Qin F. 2005. Consumption of animal products in China:a comparison between urban and rural residents. Journalof Agrotechnical Economics, 3, 25-30 (in Chinese)Ma H. 2000. Eating out, meat demand and food consumptionpatterns change in China. Ph D thesis, Chinese Academyof Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)Ma H, Huang J, Rozelle S. 2004a. Reassessing China’slivestock statistics: an analysis of discrepancies and thecreation of new data series. Economic Development andCultural Change, 52, 445-473Ma H, Rae A N, Huang J, Rozelle S. 2004b. Chinese animalproduct consumption in the 1990s. Australian Journal ofAgricultural and Resource Economics, 48, 569-590Michiel A K, Wim C M. 2011. China’s food demand, supplyand trade in 2030: simulations using the Chinagro II model.[2014-03-25].http://www.sow.vu.nl/pdf/Publications_Professional/2011/14%20China%20s%20food%20demand,%20supply%20and%20trade%20in%202030.pdfMOFCOM (Ministry of Commerce of China). 2014.Catalogue of good subject to automatic licensing.[2014-07-29]. http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/difang/jiangsu/201401/20140100448675.shtmlNDRC (National Development and Reform Commission ofChina). (2004-2012) Compilation of National Costs andRevenues of Agricultural Products in China. China StatisticsPress, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)Nelson V. 2012. Effects of China’s growth on the food pricesand food exports of other developing countries. AgriculturalEconomics, 43, 499-514Nin A, Hertel T W, Foster A, Rae A N. 2004. Productivitygrowth, catching up and uncertainty in China’s meat trade.Agricultural Economics, 31, 1-16OECD-FAO. 2013. Feeding China: Prospects and challengesin the next decade. In: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook2013-2022 [2014-07-29]. http://www.agri-outlook.org/highlights-2013-EN.pdfO E C D - F A O . 2 0 1 4 . Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023. [2014-07-29]. http://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?QueryId=58643&vh=0000&vf=0&l&il=&lang=enQiao J. 2001. Analysis on the change of competitiveness onmain animal products in China. Journal of Rural Economy,7, 37-43 (in Chinese)Rae A N. 1998. The effects of expenditure growth andurbanisation on food consumption in East Asia: a note onanimal products. Agricultural Economics, 18, 291-299Rae A N. 2008. China’s agriculture, smallholders and trade:driven by the livestock revolution. Australian Journal ofAgricultural and Resource Economics, 55, 283-302Rae A N, Hertel T W. 2000. Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: The impacts of livestockproductivity convergence in Asia-Pacific. Australian Journalof Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44, 393-422Rae A N, Zhang X. 2009. China’s booming livestock industry:household income. specialization, and exit. AgriculturalEconomics, 40, 603-616UN (United Nations). 2014. UN Comtrade Database. [2014-07-09]. http://comtrade.un.org/data/USDA. 2014. International Baseline. [2014-07-29]. http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data.aspxWTO. 2014a. Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal (I-TIP).[2014-07-09]. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/itip_e.htmWTO. 2014b. Tariff Analysis Online. [2014-07-09]. http://tao.wto.orgWTO. 2014c. Trade Policy Review, WTO Secretariat ReportWT/TPR/S/300. [2014-07-29]. http://wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tpr_e.htmWaldron S A, Brown C G, Longworth J W, Zhang C. 2007.China’s Livestock Revolution: Agribusiness and PolicyDevelopments in the Sheepmeat Industry. CABI Publishing,Wallingford, United Kingdom.Xu M. 2010. China’s meat market outlook 2011-2015. [2014-07-29]. http://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/eng/office.jsp?oid=32Yang J, Qiu H, Huang J, Rozelle S. 2008. Fighting global foodprice rises in the developing world: the response of Chinaand its effect on domestic and world markets. AgriculturalEconomics, 39, 453-464Yu W. 2014. Demographic changes, China’s food demand andsupply, and implications on the world food market. Paperpresented at the 14th Congress of the European Associationof Agricultural Economists. August 26-29, 2014 Ljubljana.Yu W, Hertel T W, Preckel P V, Eales J S. 2004. Projecting worldfood demand using alternative demand systems. EconomicModelling, 21, 99-129Yu W, Jensen H G. 2014. Trade policy responses to foodprice crisis and implications for existing domestic supportmeasures: the case of China in 2008. World Trade Review,13, 651-683Yu X H, Abler D. 2014. Where have all the pigs gone?Inconsistencies in pork statistics in China. China EconomicReview, 30, 469-484Yuan G. 2001. Study on the consumption of animal productsin China. Ph D thesis, Chinese Academy of AgriculturalSciences, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)Zhang X, Yang J, Wang S. 2011. China has reached the Lewisturning point. China Economic Review, 22, 542-554Zhang Z, Qiao J. 2011. An empirical analysis on internationalcompetitiveness of China’s pork products. Journal ofInternational Trade, 7, 39-48 (in Chinese)Zhong F, Xiang J, Zhu J. 2012. Impact of demographic dynamicson food consumption: a case study of energy intake inChina. China Economic Review, 23, 1011-1019Zhou Z, Liu H, Cao L. 2014. Food Consumption in China: TheRevolution Continues. Edward Elgar Publishing, UK. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
