|
|
|
|
|
| Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China |
| Rainer Holst, Xiaohua Yu , Carola Grün |
1.Courant Research Center ‘Poverty, Equity and Growth’, Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Goettingen 37073, Germany
2.World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA |
|
|
|
摘要 Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).
Abstract Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).
|
|
Received: 29 January 2013
Accepted:
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
Correspondence Xiaohua Yu, Tel: +49-551-3910678, Fax: +49-551-3914059, E-mail: xyu@gwdg.de
E-mail: xyu@gwdg.de
|
Cite this article:
Rainer Holst, Xiaohua Yu , Carola Grün.
2013.
Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(7): 1279-1291.
|
| [1]Brown L R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Callfor a Small Planet. W.W. Norton and Company, NewYork.Chen C C, McCarl B A, Schimmelpfennig D E. 2004. Yieldvariability as influenced by climate: a statisticalinvestigation. Climatic Change, 66, 239-261[2]Chen Y, Wu Z, Zhu T, Yang L, Ma G, Chien, H. 2013.Agricultural policy, climate factors and grain output:evidence from household survey data in rural China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12, 169-183[3]Christensen J H, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X,Held I, Jones R, Kolli R K, Kwon W T, Laprise R, et al.2007. Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S D,[4]Qin M, Manning Z, Chen M, Marquis K B, Averyt M T,Miller H L, eds., Climate Change 2007: The PhysicalScience Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge and New York.Deschenes O, Greenstone M. 2007. The economic impactsof climate change: evidence from agricultural outputand random fluctuations in weather. The AmericanEconomic Review, 97, 354-385[5]Féres J G, Reis E J, Speranza J. 2008. Assessing the impactof climate change on the brazilian agricultural sector.[2012-11-6]. http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2008/artigos/200807181438190-.pdfHorowitz J. 2009. The income-temperature relationship in across-section of countries and its implications forpredicting the effects of global warming. Environmentaland Resource Economics, 44, 475-493[6]Ji Y, Yu X, Zhong F. 2012. Machinery investment decisionand off-farm employment in rural China. ChinaEconomic Review, 23, 71-80[7]Just R E, Pope R D. 1978. Stochastic specification ofproduction functions and economic implications.Journal of Econometrics, 7, 67-86[8]Just R E, Pope R D. 1979. Production function estimationand related risk considerations. American Journal ofAgricultural Economics, 61, 276-284[9]Kumbhakar S C, Tsionas E G. 2008. Estimation of productionrisk and risk preference function: a nonparametricapproach. Annals of Operations Research, 176, 369-378[10]Li Q, Zhang H, Liu X, Huang J. 2004. Urban heat islandeffect on annual mean temperature during the last 50years in China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,79, 165-174[11]Lin J Y. 1992. Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China.The American Economic Review, 82, 34-51[12]Lippert C, Krimly T, Aurbacher J. 2009. A Ricardian analysisof the impact of climate change on agriculture inGermany. Climatic Change, 97, 593-610[13]Mendelsohn R. 2009. The impact of climate change onagriculture in developing countries. Journal of NaturalResources Policy Research, 1, 5-19[14]Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2003. Climate, water, andagriculture. Land Economics, 79, 328-341[15]Meyer S, Yu X. 2013. The Impacts of ProductionUncertainties on World Food Prices. Accepted byChina Agricultural Economic Review.National Bureau of Statistics of China (1986-2010) ChinaStatistical Yearbook (Various Editions). China StatisticsPress, Beijing. (in Chinese)[16]Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, van der Linden P J,Hanson C E. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.National Development and Reform Commission. 2010. Price Year book of China 2010. Editorial Office of PriceYearbook of China, Beijing. (in Chinese)[17]Quiggin J, Horowitz J K. 1999. The impact of global warmingon agriculture: a ricardian analysis: comment. AmericanEconomic Review, 89, 1044-1045[18]Schlenker W, Roberts M J 2009. Nonlinear temperatureeffects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yieldsunder climate change. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America,106, 15594-15598[19]Shortle J, Abler D, Blumsack S, Crane R, Kaufman Z, McDill M, Najjar R, Ready R, Wagener T, Wardrop D. 2009.Pennsylvania climate impact assessment. Report tothe Department of Environmental Protection,Environment and Natural Resources Institute, ThePennsylvania State University, USA.Smit B, Cai Y. 1996. Climate change and agriculture in China.Global Environmental Change, 6, 205-214[20]Tao F, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z, Hayashi Y, Grassl H, Fu C.2004. Variability in climatology and agriculturalproduction in China in association with the East Asiansummer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation.Climate Research, 28, 23-30[21]Tian X, Yu X. 2012. The enigmas of TFP in China: a metaanalysis.China Economic Review, 23, 396-414[22]von Braun J. 2007. The world food situation, new drivingforces and required actions. IFPRI-Food Policy Report.International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington, D.C., USA.[23]Wang J X, Huang J K, Rozelle S. 2010. Climate change and China’s agricultural sector: an overview of impacts,adaptation and mitigation. ICTSD-IPC Platform onClimate Change, Agriculture and Trade, Issue Brief No.5, International Centre for Trade and SustainableDevelopment, Geneva, Switzerland and InternationalFood & Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Washington,D.C., USA.[24]Wang J X, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Huang J K, Rozelle S,Zhang L. 2009. The impact of climate change on China’sagriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40, 323-337[25]Wang J X, Huang J K, Y T T. 2013. Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in TenLarge River Basins in China. Journal of IntegrativeAgriculture, 12, 101-108[26]Wooldridge J M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of CrossSection and Panel Data. The MIT Press, Cambridgeand London.Xiong W, Lin E, Ju H, Xu Y. 2007. Climate change andcritical thresholds in China’s food security. ClimaticChange, 81, 205-221[27]You L Z, Rosegrant M W, Wood S, Sun D S. 2009. Impact ofgrowing season temperature on wheat productivity inChina. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149,1009-1014[28]Yu X. 2012. Productivity, efficiency and structural problemsin Chinese dairy farms. China Agricultural EconomicReview, 4, 168-175[29]Yu X, Zhao G. 2009. Chinese agricultural development in30 years: a literature review. Frontiers of Economics inChina, 4, 633-648[30]Zhang B, Carter C A. 1997. Reforms, the weather, andproductivity growth in China’s grain sector. AmericanJournal of Agricultural Economics, 79, 1266-1277. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
