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| Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China |
| Rainer Holst, Xiaohua Yu , Carola Grün |
1.Courant Research Center ‘Poverty, Equity and Growth’, Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Goettingen 37073, Germany
2.World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA |
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摘要 Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).
Abstract Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).
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Received: 29 January 2013
Accepted:
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Corresponding Authors:
Correspondence Xiaohua Yu, Tel: +49-551-3910678, Fax: +49-551-3914059, E-mail: xyu@gwdg.de
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Cite this article:
Rainer Holst, Xiaohua Yu , Carola Grün.
2013.
Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(7): 1279-1291.
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