双碳目标下中国农食系统温室气体排放结构、发展趋势及国际比较

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2024.21.010

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】This study adopted a comprehensive industry chain perspective to analyze the characteristics, structure, and trends of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food system, contributing to the effective advancement of China’s low-carbon strategy. 【Method】Based on the latest statistics from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the statistical analysis, comparative analysis, and scenario analysis methods were used to analyze the trend and structural characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural food systems of China, the United States, Western Europe, India, Brazil, and globally from 1990 to 2020. Scenarios (baseline, 2 ℃ temperature control, and 1.5 ℃ temperature control) and specific stages were employed to predict China’s agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. This analysis formed the basis for identifying key areas for emission reduction and outlining achievable pathways. 【Result】Among the major economies mentioned, China was the only country with a significantly increasing per capita greenhouse gas emission in the agricultural food system, although it remained lower than that of developed economies. It was expected that, with the completion of industrialization, the advancement of low-carbonization in the energy industry, and increased difficulty in emission reduction in agricultural production, China’s share of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural food system in the total societal emissions would initially decrease and then rise. In this context, the food consumption stage was the fastest-growing segment in China’s agricultural food system greenhouse gas emissions, while the emission proportion from agricultural production was decreasing but still represented the largest share in the system. Unlike other major economies where enteric fermentation emissions were significantly higher, China’s agricultural production greenhouse gas emissions showed a diverse pattern, including enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, fertilizer application, and energy utilization. 【Conclusion】Future emission reduction efforts should focus on formulating comprehensive carbon-neutral strategies for the agricultural food system, low-carbonization of energy structures, promoting shifts in food consumption patterns, and advancing market-oriented emission reduction initiatives.

Key words: agri-food system, greenhouse gas emissions, structural characteristics, trends, international comparison

NIU KunYu, GE RuoHao, CHEN MeiAn, JIN ShuQin, LIU Jing. Structural Characteristics, Development Trends, and International Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China’s Agri-Food System Under the Dual-Carbon Objectives[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(21): 4290-4307.

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Figures/Tables 11

Table 1

Table 2

Sub-scenario setting and key assumptions for the agri-food system by segments"

农业活动类型 Type of agricultural activities		预测方法以及依据 Scenario setting and assumptions for emissions projections
农业活动类型 Type of agricultural activities		基准情形 Baseline	温控目标为2 ℃情形 2 ℃ climate target scenario	温控目标为1.5 ℃情形 1.5 ℃ climate target scenario
农业温室气体排放 Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions	水稻种植 Rice cultivation	1.5×10⁸t	调整灌溉方式，推广滴灌技术、干湿交替灌溉^[19]，平均减排量130 kg/667m^2[20]，减排潜力为 0.3×10⁸t Promoting drip irrigation technology and implementing alternate wetting and drying irrigation^[19] can result in emission reduction of 130 kg/667m^2[20]. The emission reduction potential is estimated to be 0.3×10⁸t	进一步考虑灌溉调整、水稻直播旱种的推广^[21]，平均减排量约为400 kg/667m²，减排潜力约为 0.8×10⁸t Considering additional irrigation adjustments and promoting dry direct-seeding of rice^[21] can reduce emissions by around 400 kg/667m², with an estimated potential reduction of 0.8×10⁸t
	氮肥施用 Nitrogen fertilizer application	1.7×10⁸t^[16]	加大力度推广测土配方施肥和保护性耕作^[22]，平均减排量为1.5 kg/667m^{2 [20]}，减排潜力为 0.5×10⁸t Intensifying efforts to promote soil testing and formula fertilization as well as conservation tillage^[22] can result in a emission reduction of 1.5 kg/667m^2[20]. The estimated emission reduction potential is about 0.5×10⁸t	在继续推广测土配方施肥和保护性耕作基础上，推广缓释肥和氮肥增效剂^[23-24]，到2050年将使用比例提高到50%，减排潜力为 0.9×10⁸t，预计比基准情形下降54.2% Further promoting slow-release fertilizers and nitrogen fertilizer enhancers^[23-24], with the goal of increasing the adoption rate to 50% by 2050, is estimated to have an emission reduction potential of 0.9×10⁸t. Projected decrease by 54.2% from the base scenario
	肠道发酵 Enteric fermentation	3.1×10⁸t^[16]	推广动物育种，在饲料中添加茶皂素、益生菌等添加剂^[22]，减排潜力为 0.4×10⁸t Promoting animal breeding and incorporating additives such as tea saponins and probiotics into feed^[22] has the potential to reduce emissions by 0.4×10⁸t	考虑膳食结构调整^[25]，考虑采用食物添加剂中例如茶皂素、益生菌以及脂类物质的补充^[26-27] ，减排潜力为 1.3×10⁸t Considering dietary changes^[25] and adding food supplements like tea saponins, probiotics^[26-27], and lipids could reduce emissions by an estimated 1.3×10⁸t
	畜禽粪污管理 Livestock manure management	1.6×10⁸t^[16]	加大力度推广畜禽粪污产沼^[20]和畜禽规模化养殖，减排潜力为0.2×10⁸t Promoting the anaerobic digestion of livestock and poultry manure^[20] and the large-scale breeding of livestock and poultry has the potential to reduce emissions by 0.2×10⁸t	在畜禽粪污产沼和规模化养殖基础上，考虑膳食结构调整以及优化畜禽粪污管理，减排潜力1.2×10⁸t Further considering dietary structure adjustments, and optimizing the management of livestock and poultry manure, there is a potential emission reduction of 1.2×10⁸t
	农场能源 On-farm energy use	1.5×10⁸t	大力发展光伏农业，发展绿色能源，推广农机电气化设备，农业部门电气化率达到30%^[18]，农场能源温室气体排放将比基准情形下降25.5% It is anticipated that the electrification rate in the agricultural sector will reach 30%^[18], leading to a projected decrease of 25.5% in GHG emissions compared to the baseline scenario	农业电气化率达到40%^[18]，预计农场能源温室气体排放将比基准情形下降37.2% With 40 per cent electrification of agriculture^[18], greenhouse gas emissions from on-farm energy are projected to decrease by 37.2% compared to the baseline scenario
化肥农药生产环节 Fertilizer and pesticide production		2.4×10⁸t	预计到2050年工业行业电气化率将达到58.5%，二氧化碳将比基准情形下降48.9% Electrification of the industrial sector is projected to reach 58.5% by 2050, with a CO₂ reduction of 48.9% compared to the baseline scenario	预计到2050年，工业行业电气化率将达到69.2%，二氧化碳将比基准情形下降72.8% Electrification of the industrial sector is projected to reach 69.2% by 2050, with a 72.8% reduction in carbon dioxide compared to the baseline scenario
食品生产加工环节 Food production and processing		7.3×10⁸t
食品消费环节 Food consumption		4.5×10⁸t	减少固体燃料的使用，促进炊事电气化^[28]。煤炭在能源消费中占比将下降到3.4%，非化石能源占比达 73.2%，相应的二氧化温室气体排放将比基准情形下降67.8% Cut solid fuel use, promote cooking electrification^[28]. In the 2 ℃ scenario, coal’s share drops to 3.4%, non-fossil energy rises to 73.2%, leading to a 67.8% CO₂ emission drop compared to the baseline	煤炭在能源结构中的比重将进一步下降，相应的二氧化碳温室气体排放量将比基准情形下降84.0% The share of coal in the energy mix would be further reduced and the corresponding GHG emissions of CO₂ would be reduced by 84.0% compared to the baseline scenario

Table 2

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	农业活动类型 Type of agricultural activities	CH₄	N₂O	CO₂	氟化气体 F-gases
农业生产环节温室气体排放 Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production	农作物秸秆残留物焚烧 Burning - crop residues	√	√
	农作物秸秆残留 Crop residues		√
	肠道发酵 Enteric fermentation	√
	施入农田的粪便 Manure applied to field		√
	排放到牧场的粪便 Manure left on pasture		√
	粪便管理 Manure management	√	√
	水稻种植 Rice cultivation	√
	草原火灾 Savanna fires	√	√
	合成化肥的施用 Application of synthetic fertilizers		√
	有机土壤排水 Drained organic soils		√	√
	农场内能源使用 On-farm energy use	√	√	√
土地利用变化有关的排放 Land-use change-related emissions	林地转化为其他用途的土地 Net forest conversion			√
	潮湿的热带森林火灾 Fires in humid tropical forests			√
	有机土壤火灾 Fires in organic soils	√		√
供应链前端排放 Emissions at the front end of the supply chain	化肥生产 Fertilizers manufacturing	√	√	√
供应链前端排放 Emissions at the front end of the supply chain	农药生产 Pesticide production	√	√	√
食品生产后的排放 Post-production emissions	家庭食品消费 Household food consumption	√	√	√
	食品包装 Food packaging	√	√	√
	食品生产和加工 Food production and processing	√	√	√
	食品运输 Food transport	√	√	√
	食品零售 Food retail	√	√	√	√
	食品废弃物处理 Food waste disposal	√	√	√

Structural Characteristics, Development Trends, and International Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China’s Agri-Food System Under the Dual-Carbon Objectives

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