Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (14): 2859-2871.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.14.010
• TILLAGE & CULTIVATION·PHYSIOLOGY & BIOCHEMISTRY·AGRICULTURE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • Previous Articles Next Articles
XU ShiWei(),DI JiaYing,LI GanQiong,ZHUANG JiaYu
[1] | 许世卫. 农产品数量安全智能分析与预警的关键技术及平台研究. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2013. |
XU S W. Research on Key Technologies and Platform of Intelligent- Analysis and Early-Warning for Security of Agricultural Products . Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2013. (in Chinese) | |
[2] | 许世卫. 农业监测预警中的科学与技术问题. 科技导报, 2018,36(11):32-44. |
XU S W. Scientific and technical issues in agricultural monitoring and early warning. Science &Technology Review, 2018,36(11):32-44. (in Chinese) | |
[3] | 高亮之. 农业模型学. 北京: 气象出版社, 2019. |
GAO L Z. Agricultural Modeling Science. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2019. (in Chinese) | |
[4] | 陈锡康, 杨翠红. 农业复杂巨系统的特点与全国粮食产量预测研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2002(6):108-112. |
CHEN X K, YANG C H. Characteristic of agricultural complex giant system and national grain output prediction. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2002(6):108-112. (in Chinese) | |
[5] | 刘忠, 黄峰, 李保国. 基于经验模态分解的中国粮食单产波动特征及影响因素. 农业工程学报, 2015,31(2):7-13. |
LIU Z, HUANG F, LI B G. Analysis on characteristics and influential factors of grain yield fluctuation in China based on empirical mode decomposition. Transaction of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2015,31(2):7-13. (in Chinese) | |
[6] |
王桂芝, 胡慧, 陈纪波, 吴先华. 基于BP滤波的Fourier 模型在粮食产量预测中的应用. 中国农业气象, 2015,36(4):472-478.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.011 |
WANG G Z, HU H, CHEN J B, WU X H. Application of Fourier model based on BP filter in crops yield prediction. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015,36(4):472-478. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.011 |
|
[7] | 陈纪波, 胡慧, 陈克垚, 王桂芝. 基于非线性PLSR模型的气候变化对粮食产量的影响分析. 中国农业气象, 2016,37(6):674-681. |
CHEN J B, HU H, CHEN K Y, WANG G Z. Effects of climate change on the grain yield based on nonlinear PLSR model. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016,37(6):674-681. (in Chinese) | |
[8] | 王亚飞, 廖顺宝. 气候变化对粮食产量影响的研究方法综述. 中国农业资源与区划, 2018,39(12):54-63. |
WANG Y F, LIAO S B. Impact of climate change on grain yield: A review of research methods. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2018,39(12):54-63. (in Chinese) | |
[9] | 郑建安. 主成分和BP神经网络在粮食产量预测中的组合应用. 计算机系统应用, 2016,25(11):274-278. |
ZHENG J A. Application of PCA and BP neural networks in grain production prediction. Computer Systems & Applications, 2016,25(11):274-278. (in Chinese) | |
[10] | 向昌盛, 张林峰. 灰色理论和马尔可夫相融合的粮食产量预测模型. 计算机科学, 2013,40(2):245-248. |
XIANG C S, ZHANG L F. Grain yield prediction model based on Gray theory and Markvo. Computer Science, 2013,40(2):245-248. (in Chinese) | |
[11] | 周庆元. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的粮食产量预测方法. 统计与决策, 2012(17):64-68. |
ZHOU Q Y. Grain output prediction method based on grey Markov model. Statistics & Decision, 2012(17):64-68. (in Chinese) | |
[12] | 李国祥. 从主要经济因素分析我国农产品价格走势. 农业展望, 2010(8):49-53. |
LI G X. Analyze the price trend of my country's agricultural products from the main economic factors. Agricultural Outlook, 2010(8):49-53. (in Chinese) | |
[13] | 王盛威. 主要农产品价格波动分析及调控措施研究. 北京: 中国农业大学出版社, 2019. |
WANG S W. Study on Price Fluctuations of Major Agricultural Products and Proposed Interventions. Beijing: China Agricultural University Press, 2019. (in Chinese) | |
[14] | LI G Q, XU S W, LI Z M, SUN Y G, DONG X X. Using quantile regression approach to analyze price movements of agricultural products in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2012,11(4):674-683. (in Chinese) |
[15] | 陈艳红, 胡胜德, 申倩. 基于ARIMA模型的中国粮食供求平衡及预测. 广东农业科学, 2013(5):230-233. |
CHEN Y H, HU S D, SHEN Q. Balance and forcast on supply and demand of China's grain with ARIMA model. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 2013(5):230-233. (in Chinese) | |
[16] | 吕新业, 胡非凡. 2020年我国粮食供需预测分析. 农业经济问题, 2012(10):11-18. |
LÜ X Y, HU F F. Forecasting and countermeasure on 2020 China grain supply and demand. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2012(10):11-18. (in Chinese) | |
[17] | 赵杭莉, 孙印法. 基于灰色预测模型的中国大豆市场供求分析. 商业研究, 2015(3):58-63. |
ZHAO H L, SUN Y F. An analysis of China’s soybean market supply and demand based on Grey prediction model. Commercial Research, 2015,03:58-63. (in Chinese) | |
[18] | 黄季焜, 杨军, 仇焕广. 新时期国家粮食安全战略和政策的思考. 农业经济问题, 2012(3):4-8. |
HUANG J K, YANG J, QIU H G. Thinking of national food security strategies and policies in the new period. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2012(3):4-8. (in Chinese) | |
[19] | 杨春, 王国刚, 王明利. 基于局部均衡模型的我国牛肉供求变化趋势分析. 统计与决策, 2015(18):98-100. |
YANG C, WANG G G, WANG M L. Analysis of the trend of my country's beef supply and demand based on local equilibrium model. Statistics & Decision, 2015(18):98-100. (in Chinese) | |
[20] | 曹宝明, 赵霞. 基于局部均衡理论的中国大豆及其制品供需变化预测. 中国农村经济, 2011(9):23-36, 48. |
CAO B M, ZHAO X. Forecast of supply and demand changes of Chinese soybean and its products based on partial equilibrium theory. Chinese Rural Economy, 2011(9):23-36, 48. (in Chinese) | |
[21] | 韩一军. 中国小麦中长期供求预测及政策选择—基于动态一般均衡模型分析. 中国农村经济, 2014(5):13-19, 61. |
HAN Y J. Forecast of medium and long-term supply and demand of wheat in China and policy choices based on dynamic general equilibrium model analysis. Chinese Rural Economy, 2014(5):13-19, 61. (in Chinese) | |
[22] | 陆文聪, 李元龙, 祁慧博. 全球化背景下中国粮食供求区域均衡:对国家粮食安全的启示. 农业经济问题, 2011(4):16-26. |
LU W C, LI Y L, QI H B. Regional equilibrium of Chinese grain supply and demand under globalization: Implications for national grain security. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011(4):16-26. (in Chinese) | |
[23] | 陆文聪, 祁慧博, 李元龙. 中国世界农业区域市场均衡模型及其应用. 系统科学与数学, 2013,33(1):20-35. |
LU W C, QI H B, LI Y L. Chinese world agricultural regional market equilibrium model and its application. Journal of System Science and Mathematical Science, 2013,33(1):20-35. (in Chinese) | |
[24] | LU W C, CHEN N L, QIAN W X. Modeling the effects of urbanization on grain production and consumption in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017,16(6):1393-1405. |
[25] | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028. OECD Publishing, Paris/FAO, Rome, 2019. |
[26] | 农业农村部市场预警专家委员会. 中国农业展望报告(2020-2029). 北京: 中国农业科学技术出版社, 2020. |
Market Early Warning Expert Committee of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. China Agricultural Outlook Report 2020-2029. Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 2020. (in Chinese) | |
[27] | HASTIE T, TIBSHIRANI R, FRIEDMAN J. The Elements of Statistical Learning (2nd edition). Springer-Verlag, 2009. |
[28] |
ZHUANG J Y, XU S W, LI G Q, ZHANG Y E, WU J Z, LIU J J. The influence of meteorological factors on wheat and rice yields in China. Crop Science, 2018,58(2):837-852.
doi: 10.2135/cropsci2017.01.0048 |
[29] | XU S W, LI G Q, LI Z M. China agricultural outlook for 2015-2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES). Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015,14(9):1889-1902 . |
[30] |
GRASSINI P, ESKRIDGE K M, CASSMAN K G. Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends. Nature Communications, 2013,4:2918.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms3918 pmid: 24346131 |
[31] |
RAY D K, GERBER J S, MACDONALD G K, WEST P C. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nature Communications, 2015,6:5989.
doi: 10.1038/ncomms6989 pmid: 25609225 |
[32] |
TAO F L, ZHANG Z, SHI W J, LIU Y J, XIAO D P, ZHANG S, ZHU Z, WANG M, LIU F S. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology, 2013,19:3200-3209.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.12250 |
[33] | CHEN C, BAETHGEN W E, ROBERTSON A. Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961-2003. Climate Change, 2013,116:767-788. |
[34] |
聂志刚, 李广, 王钧, 马维伟, 雒翠萍, 董莉霞, 逯玉兰. 基于APSIM 模型旱地小麦叶面积指数相关参数的优化. 中国农业科学, 2019,52(12):2056-2068.
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2019.12.004 |
NIE Z G, LI G, WANG J, MA W W, LUO C P, DONG L X, LU Y L. Parameter optimization for the simulation of leaf area index of dryland wheat with the APSIM model. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019,52(12):2056-2068. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2019.12.004 |
|
[35] |
庄嘉祥, 姜海燕, 刘蕾蕾, 王芳芳, 汤亮, 朱艳, 曹卫星. 基于个体优势遗传算法的水稻生育期模型参数优化. 中国农业科学, 2013,46(11):2220-2231.
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.005 |
ZHUANG J X, JIANG H Y, LIU L L, WANG F F, TANG L, ZHU Y, CAO W X. Parameters optimization of rice development stages model based on individual advantages genetic algorithm. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2013,46(11):2220-2231. (in Chinese)
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.005 |
|
[36] | 郑莉. 我国主要农产品产量、消费量预测模型构建及实证研究[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2013. |
ZHENG L. Study on the prediction models of output and consumption of main agricultural products in China[D]. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013. (in Chinese) | |
[37] | 郑莉, 段冬梅, 陆凤彬, 许伟, 杨翠红, 汪寿阳. 我国猪肉消费需求量集成预测—基于ARIMA、VAR和VEC模型的实证. 系统工程理论与实践, 2013,33(4):918-925. |
ZHENG L, DUAN D M, LU F B, XU W, YANG C H, WANG S Y. Integration forecast of Chinese pork consumption demand—empirical based on ARIMA, VAR and VEC models. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2013,33(4):918-925. (in Chinese) | |
[38] | 徐雅卿, 魏轶华, 李旭刚. 农产品价格预测模型的构建. 统计与决策, 2017(12):75-77. |
XU Y Q, WEI Y H, LI X G. Establishment of agricultural products, price prediction. Statistics & Decision, 2017(12):75-77. (in Chinese) |
[1] | FAN Kai,JI Fang,XU JianHong,QIAN MingRong,DUAN JinSheng,NIE DongXia,TANG ZhanMin,ZHAO ZhiHui,SHI JianRong,HAN Zheng. Natural Occurrence and Characteristic Analysis of 40 Mycotoxins in Agro-Products from Yangtze Delta Region [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(13): 2870-2884. |
[2] | XU YueQing,WANG DanDan,ZHAO XinNan,YU Li,WANG XiuPin,ZHANG LiangXiao,ZHANG Qi,ZHANG Wen,LI PeiWu. Advances in Research on Physiological Functions of Vitamin K1 and Its Detection Methods in Agricultural Products [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3207-3217. |
[3] | PANG XueLi,SUN YuQing,KONG FanYu,QIU Jun,ZHANG JiGuang. Advances and Perspectives in Research of Volatile Flavor Quality of Agricultural Products [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3192-3198. |
[4] | LIANG Ying,LI Yi,ZHANG LiuJuan,LIU XianJin,LU BaiYi. Discussion on the Definition and Screening Method of Characteristic Quality Indicators of Edible Agricultural Products [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3155-3162. |
[5] | ZHU Hong , LIANG KeHong , XU HaiQuan , QIU Ju , GUO YanZhi , HUANG JiaZhang , ZHU DaZhou , SUN JunMao . Review and Suggestion for Nutrition Standard of Agricultural Products in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3145-3154. |
[6] | TANG ChaoHua , ZHAO QingYu , ZHANG Kai , LI Shuang , QIN YuChang , ZHANG JunMin . Promoting the Development of Nutritionally-Guided Agriculture in Research and Development of Selenium-Enriched Agri-Products in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2019, 52(18): 3122-3133. |
[7] | LI Pei-Wu, DING Xiao-Xia, BAI Yi-Zhen, ZHOU Hai-Yan, YIN 南Ri. Advance in Research on Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin in Agricultural Products [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2013, 46(12): 2534-2542. |
[8] | YU Hua, WU Zhen-Hua. Coding for Agricultural Product Trace [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(23): 4801-4806. |
|