基于近40年土地利用变化的川中丘陵区碳储量时空演变与驱动因素分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.09.007

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】This study aimed to clarify the coupling mechanism between land use change and carbon storage in Suining City, Sichuan Province, is a typical hilly region in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Besides, the synergistic pathways for "cropland protection-ecological conservation-carbon sequestration" from 1986 to 2035 were explored. This study could provide a theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally promoting the increase of carbon storage and maintaining the sustainable development of agriculture.【Method】Based on land use data interpreted from remote sensing imagery from 1986 to 2023, the InVEST model was employed to estimate carbon storage across multiple time periods. Geographic detectors and ridge regression were used to analyze spatial differentiation drivers. The PLUS model was used to simulate land use and carbon storage changes under four 2035 scenarios: Natural Development (NDS), Urban Development (UDS), Ecological Priority (EPS), and Cropland Protection (CPS). The changing trends and influencing factors of carbon storage in Suining City over the past 40 years were explored.【Result】(1) Land use transformation patterns. Over the past 40 years, the area of cropland, forest land, and construction land has changed significantly, and land use has undergone a three-stage transition: "cropland contraction-urban expansion-ecological restoration". The proportion of crop land decreased from 66.6% to 46.1%, whereas construction land increased from 6.0% to 13.4%. The dominant transition pathway was cropland-to-forest (56.3%). (2) Bidirectional effects on carbon storage. Regional net carbon storage increased by 28.73×10⁵ t, of which the conversion of cropland to forest land was the most important factor driving the increase of carbon storage, contributing 113.16×10⁵ t to the increase of the core carbon increment, followed by the conversion of cropland to shrub land, which increased carbon storage by 13.13×10⁵ t. In contrast, built-up land expansion resulted in a carbon loss of 14.90×10⁵ t. The carbon storage structure was dominated by soil organic carbon, which accounted for more than 84.0%. (3) Driving mechanisms. Topography-vegetation synergistic effects primarily shaped the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage. Vegetation indices-including Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Leaf Area Index (LAI)-accounted for over 62.0% of the explanatory power. Due to limited topographic variability in hilly areas (slope coefficient of variation CV≤0.38), topographic factors exhibited a paradox of "high q-value-low contribution" (actual contribution rate <7.0%). (4) Scenario simulations. The EPS scenario was identified as the optimal carbon-maximum pathway, with a marginal increase in carbon storage (0.2%) achieved by strictly controlling construction land (increase limited to 2.2%) and enhancing coordinated restoration of forest and grassland ecosystems (grassland area increased by 69.9%). In contrast, the CPS scenario induced ecological risks: although cropland expanded by 11.6%, carbon storage declined by 0.1%, and wetland conversion exceeded 50.0%.【Conclusion】Based on an analysis of the impact of land use changes over the past 40 years on carbon storage and its driving factors, optimizing land use structure and implementing a “zonal management” policy represented the key pathway to promoting the steady increase of carbon storage in the hilly region of central Sichuan.

Key words: land use change, carbon storage, InVEST model, PLUS model, Geodetector-Ridge Regression, hilly region of central Sichuan Province

DENG ChunXiu, YAO Li, WU HongJian, LI Jie, SHEN Yue, LAI Ming, YU Long, GUO Wei, LI JinMeng, LIN ChaoWen, LI YuanHong. Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Hilly Areas in Central Sichuan Based on Land Use Change in the Past 40 Years[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(9): 1916-1936.

Figures/Tables 18

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Table 6

Table 7

Matrix of land use changes and carbon storage changes by land use type in Suining City from 1986 to 2023"

面积转移矩阵Area transfer matrix (hm²)
LUCC类型 LUCC type	草地 Grassland	耕地 Cultivated land	灌木 Shrubland	建设用地 Construction land	林地 Forest land	湿地 Wetland	水域 Water area	未利用地 Unused land	转出 Transfer out
草地Grassland	539.16	818.32	153.68	268.30	3121.70	7.50	71.25	0.08	4440.84
耕地Cultivated land	1020.77	226682.98	14749.15	37641.09	71907.59	34.72	2326.01	0.40	127679.73
灌木Shrubland	29.51	1398.53	2054.02	229.25	1978.68	0.00	96.67	0.00	3732.65
建设用地Construction land	39.47	4250.35	382.73	24603.99	2088.16	4.79	556.47	0.70	7322.68
林地Forest land	308.89	5028.28	7080.07	4606.49	79179.66	14.82	966.57	1.88	18007.00
湿地Wetland	41.60	1210.99	34.58	728.93	170.48	546.18	1766.84	0.03	3953.46
水域Water area	77.89	2438.18	140.71	1252.80	1038.97	267.95	22176.29	0.55	5217.04
未利用地Unused land	132.64	3528.74	524.19	1804.87	68.65	0.00	54.71	6.57	6113.79
转入Transfer in	1650.77	18673.39	23065.10	46531.74	80374.22	329.78	5838.54	3.65	/
碳储量转移矩阵 Carbon storage transfer matrix（×10⁵ t）
LUCC类型 LUCC type	草地 Grassland	耕地 Cultivated land	灌木 Shrubland	建设用地 Construction land	林地 Forest land	湿地 Wetland	水域 Water area	未利用地 Unused land	转出 Transfer out
草地Grassland	0.00	-0.20	0.12	0.10	4.76	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	4.72
耕地Cultivated land	0.18	0.00	13.13	14.90	113.16	-0.77	-0.08	-1.08	139.44
灌木Shrubland	-0.11	-13.11	0.00	-0.07	-8.63	-0.02	-0.03	-0.16	-22.13
建设用地Construction land	-0.20	-32.79	0.15	0.00	-4.26	-0.47	-0.51	-0.55	-38.63
林地Forest land	-2.49	-65.68	5.02	1.12	0.00	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	-62.20
湿地Wetland	0.03	1.16	0.03	0.32	0.26	0.00	1.10	0.00	2.90
水域Water area	0.01	0.11	0.04	0.31	0.12	-0.98	0.00	-0.02	-0.41
未利用地Unused land	0.12	3.47	0.52	0.81	0.11	0.00	0.04	0.00	5.07
转入Transfer in	-2.46	-107.04	19.01	17.49	105.52	-2.36	0.47	-1.87	/

Table 7

Table 8

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数据类别 Data category	数据名称 Data name	时间 Year	分辨率 Resolution (m)	数据来源 Data source
地形因子 Topographic factor	海拔高度DEM		30	OpenTopography_Copernicus GLO-30 Digital Elevation Model https://opentopography.s3.sdsc.edu/minio/raster/COP30/
	坡度SLP	1986, 2009, 2019, 2023	30
	山谷深度VD		30
植被指数 Vegetation index	归一化植被指数NDVI		30	中国陆地观测卫星（Landsat）（https://data.cresda.cn）计算分析得出 Calculated and analyzed by China Land Observation Satellite (Landsat) https://data.cresda.cn
	叶面积指数LAI		30
	增强植被指数EVI		30
	土壤调解植被指数SAVI		30
	地表水分指数LSWI		30
	修正型归一化差异水体指数MNDWI		30
	土壤增强指数SER1		30
	土壤增强指数SER2		30
	土壤增强指数SER3		30
气候因子 Climatic factor	年平均气温TEM		1000	中国1 km分辨率逐月平均气温数据集（1901—2023） Monthly mean temperature dataset at 1km resolution for China (1901-2023) https://www.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/71ab4677-b66c-4fd1-a004-b2a541c4d5bf/
气候因子 Climatic factor	年平均降水PRE		1000	中国1 km分辨率逐月降水量数据集（1901—2023） Monthly precipitation dataset at 1 km resolution for China (1901 -2023) https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/faae7605-a0f2-4d18-b28f-5cee413766a2
社会因子 Social factor	人口数据POP	2000, 2010, 2015, 2020	1000	中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集 https://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx DOIID=32 China Population Spatial Distribution Kilometer Grid Dataset
社会因子 Social factor	距道路距离ROAD	1986, 2009, 2019, 2023	30	根据土地利用提取后，数据计算生成 After extraction based on land use, the data is computationally generated

土地利用类型 Land use/Land cover type	地上生物量碳密度 Aboveground biomass carbon density	地下生物量碳密度 Belowground biomass carbon density	土壤有机碳密度（校正） Soil organic carbon density	死亡有机质碳密度 Dead organic matter carbon density
耕地Cultivated land	4.02	0.75	91.33	2.11
林地Forest land	22.62	18.03	125.77	2.78
灌木Shrubland	8.67	4.05	84.78	0.87
草地Grassland	3.60	11.70	65.93	7.28
水域Water area	1.59	0.00	67.53	3.98
湿地Wetland	2.10	6.82	56.17	0.21
建设用地 Construction land	0.83	0.08	43.71	0.00
未利用地Unused land	0.59	0.64	28.42	0.96

LUCC类型 LUCC type	自然发展情景 Natural development scenario								城市发展情景 Urban development scenario								生态优先情景 Ecological priority scenario								耕地保护情景 Farmland protection scenario
LUCC类型 LUCC type	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h
a	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
c	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
d	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
e	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
f	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
g	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
h	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

LUCC类型 LUCC type	1986-2009		2009-2019		2019-2023		1986-2023
LUCC类型 LUCC type	面积 Area (hm²)	变幅 Variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	变幅 Variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	变幅 Variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	变幅 Variation (%)
草地Grassland	-3575.30	-71.8	-104.82	-7.5	890.05	68.5	-2790.07	-56.0
耕地Cultivated land	-27805.54	-7.9	-79926.70	-24.5	-1274.11	-0.5	-109006.34	-30.8
灌木Shrubland	-5627.45	-97.3	26986.71	16949.3	-2026.81	-7.5	19332.46	334.1
建设用地Construction land	29327.39	91.9	5152.97	8.4	4728.70	7.1	39209.06	122.8
林地Forest land	21861.79	22.5	43985.20	37.0	-3479.77	-2.1	62367.22	64.2
湿地Wetlands	-719.09	-16.0	-2567.37	-67.9	-337.21	-27.8	-3623.68	-80.5
水域Water area	-7439.46	-27.2	6565.33	32.9	1495.62	5.6	621.49	2.3
未利用地Unused land	-6022.35	-98.4	-91.32	-93.2	3.53	52.7	-6110.14	-99.8

年 Year	碳储量 Carbon stock	地上生物量碳 Above-ground biomass carbon		地下生物量碳 Below-ground biomass carbon		土壤有机碳 Soil organic carbon		死亡有机质碳 Dead organic matter carbon
年 Year	含量 Quantity contained (×10⁵t)	含量 Quantity contained (×10⁵ t)	占比 Percentage (%)	含量 Quantity contained (×10⁵t)	占比 Percentage (%)	含量 Quantity contained (×10⁵t)	占比 Percentage (%)	含量 Quantity contained (×10⁵t)	占比 Percentage (%)
1986	561.64	37.74	6.7	21.37	3.8	490.78	87.4	11.75	2.1
2009	567.96	41.03	7.2	24.39	4.3	491.43	86.5	11.11	2.0
2019	595.73	50.19	8.4	32.63	5.5	501.78	84.2	11.13	1.9
2023	590.37	49.27	8.3	32.00	5.4	498.00	84.4	11.11	1.9

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Hilly Areas in Central Sichuan Based on Land Use Change in the Past 40 Years

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LUCC类型 LUCC type	1986-2009		2009-2019		2019-2023		1986-2023
LUCC类型 LUCC type	变化量 Variation (×10⁵t)	变幅 Variation (%)	变化量 Variation (×10⁵t)	变幅 Variation (%)	变化量 Variation (×10⁵t)	变幅 Variation (%)	变化量 Variation (×10⁵t)	变幅 Variation (%)
草地Grassland	-3.16	-71.8	-0.09	-7.5	0.79	68.5	-2.47	-56.0
耕地Cultivated land	-27.31	-7.9	-78.50	-24.5	-1.25	-0.5	-107.06	-30.8
灌木Shrubland	-5.54	-97.3	26.55	16949.3	-1.99	-7.5	19.02	334.1
建设用地Construction land	13.09	91.9	2.30	8.4	2.11	7.1	17.50	122.8
林地Grassland	36.99	22.5	74.42	37.0	-5.89	-2.1	105.53	64.2
湿地Wetland	-0.47	-16.0	-1.68	-67.9	-0.22	-27.8	-2.37	-80.5
水域Water area	-5.44	-27.2	4.80	32.9	1.09	5.6	0.45	2.3
未利用地Unused land	-1.84	-98.4	-0.03	-93.2	0.00	52.7	-1.87	-99.8
合计Total	6.32	1.1	27.78	4.9	-5.36	-0.9	28.73	5.1

影响因素Influencing factor	驱动因子Driving factor	1986			2009			2019			2023
影响因素Influencing factor	驱动因子Driving factor	q	β	贡献率Contribution rate (%)	q	β	贡献率Contribution rate (%)	q	β	贡献率Contribution rate (%)	q	β	贡献率Contribution rate (%)
气候因素Climate factors	TEM	0.084	9.587	5.7	0.036	1.196	0.1	0.049	14.006	0.5	0.044	6	0.3
气候因素Climate factors	PRE	0.052	0.166	0.1	0.005	-0.323	0.0	0.003	-0.880	0.0	0.002	-1.898	0.0
生物因素Biological factors	NDVI	0.026	-170.88	30.9	0.115	-53.449	11.9	0.291	-43.115	9.1	0.319	-24.641	7.6
	LAI	0.055	51.946	20.0	0.147	45.162	12.9	0.390	46.716	13.2	0.399	28.523	11.0
	EVI	0	0.002	0.0	0.064	0.025	0.0	0.120	-2.502	0.2	0.148	0.677	0.1
	SAVI	0.035	57.120	14.3	0.070	0.195	0.1	0.143	-423.848	43.9	0.152	-275.299	40.2
地形因素Topographic factors	DEM	0.107	0.173	0.1	0.089	0.106	0.0	0.097	0.182	0.0	0.124	0.084	0.0
	SLP	0.003	0.024	0.0	0.076	0.682	0.1	0.118	0.454	0.0	0.202	0.517	0.1
	VD	0.018	0.028	0.0	0.037	-0.071	0.0	0.075	0.083	0.0	0.096	-0.051	0.0
其他遥感因素Other remote sensing factors	LSWI	0.015	-112.032	11.6	0.025	-245.289	11.8	0.128	253.776	23.6	0.147	168.803	23.9
	MNDWI	0.02	29.83	4.2	0.030	-141.852	8.3	0.056	-86.220	3.5	0.098	-65.859	6.2
	SER1	0.007	37.625	1.8	0.071	-182.486	25.3	0.241	-11.486	2.0	0.218	-16.479	3.5
	SER2	0.024	-42.286	7.1	0.040	276.297	21.2	0.037	8.487	0.2	0.075	13.126	0.9
	SER3	0.02	-29.83	4.1	0.030	141.852	8.3	0.056	86.220	3.5	0.098	65.859	6.2
社会经济因素Socio-economic factors	POP	0.026	-0.001	0.0	0.028	-0.012	0.0	0.026	0.002	0.0	0.025	0.001	0.0
社会经济因素Socio-economic factors	ROAD	0.034	0.002	0.0	0.011	0	0.0	0.018	-0.001	0.0	0.019	-0.001	0.0

LUCC类型 LUCC type	2023年基期年 The base year of 2023		2035年自然发展情景 Natural development scenario in 2035			2035年城镇发展情景 Urban development scenarios in 2035			2035年生态优先情景 Ecological priority scenario in 2035			2035年耕地保护情景 Farmland protection scenario in 2035
LUCC类型 LUCC type	面积 Area (hm²)	地类占比 Percentage of land types (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	地类占比 Percentage of land types (%)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	地类占比 Percentage of land types (%)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	地类占比 Percentage of land types (%)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	面积 Area (hm²)	地类占比 Percentage of land types (%)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)
耕地Cultivated land	245356.37	46.1	240743.52	45.2	-1.9	239961.15	45.1	-2.2	237923.33	44.7	-3.0	273812.13	51.4	11.6
建设用地 Construction land	71135.72	13.4	84758.67	15.9	19.1	86100.21	16.2	21.0	72716.49	13.7	2.2	61056.54	11.5	-14.2
水域Water area	28014.83	5.3	29112.03	5.5	3.9	29797.83	5.6	6.4	28642.05	5.4	2.2	25280.28	4.8	-9.8
林地Forest land	159553.89	30.0	149852.79	28.2	-6.1	149553.36	28.1	-6.3	162717.52	30.6	2.0	149867.46	28.2	-6.1
灌木Shrubland	25119.12	4.7	24591.96	4.6	-2.2	23608.62	4.4	-6.1	26079.3	4.9	3.8	20949.39	3.9	-16.7
草地Grassland	2189.93	0.4	2745	0.5	25.7	2478.33	0.5	13.4	3719.61	0.7	69.9	841.23	0.2	-61.5
湿地Wetland	875.96	0.2	456.03	0.1	-48.0	760.41	0.1	-13.2	465.12	0.1	-46.9	456.48	0.1	-47.9
未利用地 Unused land	10.22	0.0	6.57	0.0	-37.6	6.66	0.0	-36.8	3.15	0.0	-69.2	3.06	0.0	-70.9

LUCC类型 LUCC type	2023年基期年 The base year of 2023	2035年自然发展情景 Natural development scenario in 2035		2035年城镇发展情景 Urban development scenarios in 2035		2035年生态优先情景 Ecological priority scenario in 2035		2035年耕地保护情景 Farmland protection scenario in 2035
LUCC类型 LUCC type	碳储量 Carbon stock (×10⁵ t)	碳储量 Carbon stock (×10⁵ t)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	碳储量 Carbon stock (×10⁵ t)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	碳储量 Carbon stock (×10⁵ t)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)	碳储量 Carbon stock (×10⁵ t)	变幅 Amplitude variation (%)
耕地Cultivated land	240.96	236.43	-1.9	235.67	-2.2	233.66	-3.0	268.91	11.6
建设用地Construction land	31.74	37.82	19.2	38.42	21.0	32.45	2.2	27.24	-14.2
水域Water area	20.48	21.28	3.9	21.78	6.4	20.94	2.2	18.48	-9.8
林地Forest land	269.97	253.55	-6.1	253.04	-6.3	275.32	2.0	253.58	-6.1
灌木Shrubland	24.71	24.19	-2.1	23.22	-6.0	25.65	3.8	20.61	-16.6
草地Grassland	1.94	2.43	25.4	2.19	13.2	3.29	69.9	0.74	-61.6
湿地Wetland	0.57	0.30	-47.9	0.50	-13.2	0.30	-46.9	0.30	-47.9
未利用地Unused land	0.003	0.002	-35.7	0.002	-34.8	0.001	-69.2	0.001	-70.1
合计Total	590.37	576.01	-2.4	574.83	-2.6	591.62	0.2	589.86	-0.1

分区 Partition	2023基期年 The base year of 2023	自然发展情景 Natural development scenario	城镇发展情景 Urban development scenario	生态优先情景 Ecological priority scenario	耕地保护情景 Farmland protection scenario
北部低山带 The northern low mountain area	120.98	117.41	117.08	121.19	120.50
涪江冲积带Fujiang alluvial zone	80.75	78.99	78.67	81.80	81.15
琼江丘陵带Qiongjiang hilly belt	111.62	109.16	108.98	111.66	111.66
中心城郊带Central peri-urban belt	69.51	66.58	66.41	70.39	68.68
合计Total	110.92	108.22	108.00	111.15	110.82

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