关键词: 气候变化, 油菜, 关键期, 气候适宜度, 风险, 评估

Abstract:

【Objective】The objective of the research was to study the changes of precipitation suitability and yield loss risk of cole at flowering period.【Method】Changes of precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period were calculated by using climate trend rate. Based on relationship of precipitation suitability and cole yield, yield loss risk was assessed based on Beta distribution model.【Result】Precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period is positive, suitability was increased at the average rate of 0.0075/10a,waterlogging in cole flowering period in Zhejiang showed signs of abating. In bad harvest year, risk probability of precipitation suitability spatial distribution showed a decrease from southwest to northeast, and in good harvest year, it showed a increase from southwest to northeast. 【Conclusion】 The change of climate made precipitation suitability increased and risk decreased, which is of benefit to the increase of the cole yield.

Key words: climate change, cole, critical , climate suitability, risk, assessment