全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.11.005

中国农业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (11): 2118-2144.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.11.005

• 耕作栽培·生理生化·农业信息技术 • 上一篇下一篇

全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整

郭世博¹^,²^,³(), 张镇涛¹, 郭尔静¹^,⁴, 赵锦¹, 刘志娟¹, 赵闯¹, 杨晓光¹()

¹ 中国农业大学资源与环境学院，北京 100193
² 河北省气象科学研究所，石家庄 050021
³ 河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室，石家庄 050021
⁴ 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-08-25 接受日期:2024-11-15 出版日期:2025-06-01 发布日期:2025-06-09
通信作者:
杨晓光，E-mail：yangxg@cau.edu.cn
联系方式: 郭世博，E-mail：gsb@cau.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607402); 中国农业大学“2115人才培育发展支持计划”

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV. Adjustment of China’s Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change

GUO ShiBo¹^,²^,³(), ZHANG ZhenTao¹, GUO ErJing¹^,⁴, ZHAO Jin¹, LIU ZhiJuan¹, ZHAO Chuang¹, YANG XiaoGuang¹()

¹ College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
² Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021
³ Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021
⁴ China Meteorological Administration Training Centre (CMATC), Beijing 100081

Received:2024-08-25 Accepted:2024-11-15 Published:2025-06-01 Online:2025-06-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】油料作物是我国食用植物油和饲料蛋白的重要来源，以大豆、油菜和花生三大油料作物为研究对象，利用随机森林模型方法，基于作物气候适宜性和高产稳产性，提出三大油料作物适应未来气候变化的种植布局调整方案和途径，为提高气候变化背景下我国油料总产量、保障粮油安全提供理论依据。【方法】基于1981—2019年全国地级市三大油料作物统计产量、生长季内气候因子和农业技术进步因子，构建随机森林模型，预测2021—2060年SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下油料作物产量；基于各地级市作物的气候适宜性和高产稳产性划分综合适宜区，结合气候变化影响，提出适应未来气候变化的油料作物种植布局调整框架，并以2019年的种植面积为基准进行种植布局调整；最后，量化种植布局调整带来的总产提升程度以及环境效益和经济效益的变化。【结果】（1）1981—2019年，大豆、油菜和花生分布在气候适宜且高产稳产性高的区域内种植面积占比分别为11.6%、38.3%和46.0%；未来气候变化下，该区域大豆种植面积占比下降、油菜占比增加、花生占比无明显变化。（2）未来气候变化背景下作物种植布局调整后，大豆、油菜和花生面积分别增加1.8×10⁶—2.6×10⁶、3.2×10⁶—3.9×10⁶和0.8×10⁶—1.8×10⁶ hm²。（3）种植布局调整后，大豆、油菜和花生总产分别提高了140%、150%和150%，油料自给率提高7.9—13.0%，气候变化对总产负面影响降低1.0×10⁶—1.8×10⁶ t。总氮肥用量下降1.1×10⁶—1.5×10⁶ t；温室气体排放量下降9.7×10⁶—12.7×10⁶ t CO₂-eq；整体经济效益增加0.3×10³—0.4×10³亿元。【结论】基于作物气候适宜性和高产稳产性的种植布局调整,可在扩大油料作物种植面积的同时提高作物总产、减缓气候变化对油料作物总产的负面影响、提高经济效益并减少总氮肥用量和温室气体排放。

关键词: 气候变化, 油料作物, 气候适宜性, 高产稳产性, 种植布局调整

Abstract:

【Objective】 Oil crops are important sources of edible vegetable oil and feed protein. Soybean, canola, and peanut are the three major oil crops of China. This study aimed to clarify the climate suitability, and high-stable yield of oil crops under future climate change, and to propose adjustment of crop patterns framework, provided a theoretical basis for improving the total oil production and ensuring the safety of grain and oil in China under the background of climate change. 【Method】 Based on the yield, climate factors and agricultural technological factors of three oil crops from 1981 to 2019, a random forest model was constructed to predict yield under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2060. Based on the crops’ climate suitability and high-stable yield, a comprehensive suitable area was divided. Combined with the impact of climate change, a framework of crops’ patterns adjustment to adapt to future climate change was proposed. Finally, the crops production, environment benefits and economic benefits before and after adjustment were clarified. 【Result】 (1) From 1981 to 2019, the proportion of soybean, canola, and peanut planting areas in the region with suitable climate and high-stable yield was 11.6%, 38.3%, and 46.0%, respectively. Future, the proportion of soybean planting area in this region will decrease, the proportion of canola will increase, and the proportion of peanuts will not change significantly. (2) After future adjustment, the planting area of soybean, canola and peanut will increase by 1.8×10⁶-2.6×10⁶ hm², 3.2×10⁶-3.9×10⁶ hm² and 0.8×10⁶-1.8×10⁶ hm², respectively. (3) The production of soybean, canola and peanut will increase by 140%, 150% and 150%, respectively, while the self-sufficiency rate of oil crop will increase by 7.9%-13.0%. The negative impact of climate change on production will decrease by 1.0×10⁶-1.8 ×10⁶ t. The total amount of nitrogen fertilizer application and greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 1.1×10⁶-1.5×10⁶ t and 9.7×10⁶-12.7×10⁶ t CO₂-eq, respectively. The total economic benefits will increase by 0.3×10⁵-0.4×10⁵ million yuan. 【Conclusion】 Under future climate change, the framework of adjustment of crop patterns for oil crops based on the climate suitability, high-stable yield and climate change impacts could expand the planting area of oil crops, increase crops production, reduce the negative impact of climate change, reduce total nitrogen fertilizer use and greenhouse gas emissions, and increase economic benefits.

Key words: climate change, oil crops, climate suitability, high and stable yield, adjustment of crop patterns

郭世博, 张镇涛, 郭尔静, 赵锦, 刘志娟, 赵闯, 杨晓光. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整[J]. 中国农业科学, 2025, 58(11): 2118-2144.

GUO ShiBo, ZHANG ZhenTao, GUO ErJing, ZHAO Jin, LIU ZhiJuan, ZHAO Chuang, YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV. Adjustment of China’s Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(11): 2118-2144.

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图/表 13

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图2

表1

不同油料作物和主粮作物种植布局调整方案"

综合适宜区 Comprehensive suitability		产量变化 Yield change		种植布局调整 Adjustment of crop pattern
油料作物 Oil crop	主粮作物 Grain crop	油料作物 Oil crop	主粮作物 Grain crop
SH/UH	SH/UH	+	+	不进行面积调整 No adjustment
SH/UH	SH/UH	+	-	总面积的75%分配给油料作物 75% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SH/UH	-	+	总面积的75%分配给主粮作物 75% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	+	+	将该区域内主粮占总种植面积的比例进行排序，将15%分位数为阈值，每个地级市多余的面积分配给油料作物 The proportion of grain crops in the total planting area in the region was ranked, the 15% quantile was used as the threshold, and the excess area of each prefecture-level city is adjusted to oil crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	+	-	总面积的50%分配给油料作物 50% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SL/UL	SH/UH	-	+	总面积的100%分配给主粮作物 100% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	+	+	将该区域内主粮作物占总面积的比例进行排序，将35%分位数为阈值，每个地级市多余的面积分配给油料作物 The proportion of grain crops in the total planting area in the region was ranked, the 35% quantile was used as the threshold, and the excess area of each prefecture-level city is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	+	-	总面积的100%分配给油料作物 100% of the total area is adjusted to oil crops
SH/UH	SL/UL	-	+	总面积的50%分配给主粮作物 50% of the total area is adjusted to grain crops
其余地级市 Other cities				将主粮作物单产由大到小进行排序，按顺序将总面积的75%分配给主粮作物，直至总产达到2019年的总产 Sort the yield of grain crops from high to low, and allocate 75% of the total area to grain crops in order until the total production reaches the total production of 2019

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农业投入 Agricultural input	系数Coefficient	单位 Unit	文献来源Reference source
氮肥 N fertilizer	8.30	kg CO₂-eq/kg N	[22]
磷肥 P fertilizer	0.79	kg CO₂-eq/kg P₂O₅
钾肥 K fertilizer	0.55	kg CO₂-eq/kg K₂O
农药 Pesticides	19.13	kg CO₂-eq/kg Pesticides
柴油 Diesel	1.43	kg CO₂-eq/L	[40]
劳动力 Labor	0.86	kg CO₂-eq/(person/day)	[41]
灌溉用电量 Electricity for irrigation	0.92	kg CO₂-eq/kWh	[38]
大豆种子 Soybean seed	0.58	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[42]
花生种子 Peanut seed	0.92	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[43]
油菜种子 Canola seed	0.83	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[37]
玉米种子 Maize seed	1.22	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[38]
小麦种子 Wheat seed	0.40	kg CO₂-eq/kg	[39]

布局调整 Patterns adjustment	作物 Crop	影响 Impact	SSP1-2.6		SSP5-8.5
布局调整 Patterns adjustment	作物 Crop	影响 Impact	2030s	2050s	2030s	2050s
调整前 Before adjustment	大豆 Soybean	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	19.2	19.1	19.1	18.9
	大豆 Soybean	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-2.9	-4.5	-4.1	-5.7
	油菜 Canola	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	13.4	13.1	13.2	13.0
	油菜 Canola	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-4.2	-9.0	-6.2	-8.0
	花生 Peanut	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	16.6	16.4	16.6	16.3
	花生 Peanut	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-3.0	-5.2	-3.2	-6.3
调整后 After adjustment	大豆 Soybean	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	27.5	27.3	27.1	25.7
	大豆 Soybean	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	1.4	0.6	1.0	-0.7
	油菜 Canola	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	20.2	19.7	20.1	19.1
	油菜 Canola	气候变化下总产的变化 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-0.2	-0.5	0.1	-0.9
	花生 Peanut	总产 Production (×10⁶ t)	27.3	25.2	26.8	22.5
	花生 Peanut	气候变化对总产的影响 Production change under climate change (×10⁵ t)	-0.9	-1.3	-1.4	-1.7

全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV. Adjustment of China’s Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change

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