气候变化对中国农业影响评估和适应性研究的回顾与展望

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文首先介绍了气候变化对农业影响与适应性研究的背景，阐述了国内外的研究进展，回顾了国家自“八五”科技攻关计划研究以来在构建中国区域气候情景、农业对气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性、气候变化对粮食产量与供给安全的影响等方面的研究成果和正在进行的相关研究课题，最后对有待解决的问题进行了研究展望。

关键词: 气候变化 , 中国农业 , 影响评估 , 适应性

Abstract: In this paper, the research background of the climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture and adaptation as well as the relevant international and domestic progresses were firstly introduced, and then the results on the construction of climate change scenarios in China, sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in agriculture, and the impacts of climate change on crop yield and food supply security since China’s the 8th 5-Year-Plan key technology R&D program were reviewed. Finally, the undergoing research projects were briefed, the unsolved problems and the research directions were discussed and prospected.

Key words: Climate change , Chinese agriculture , Impacts assessment , Adaptation

许吟隆;居辉;熊伟;林而达. 气候变化对中国农业影响评估和适应性研究的回顾与展望[J]. 中国农业科学, 2007, 40(增刊): 2971-2978.

XU Yin-long, JU Hui, XIONG Wei, LIN Er-da. Review and Prospect of Research of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Adaptation in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(增刊): 2971-2978.

0
/ / 推荐

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

链接本文: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2007/V40/I增刊/2971

参考文献

[1]IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to Third assessment Report of Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[2]IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis-Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007: 18 (Formally approved at the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007).
[3]Naki?enovi? N, Alcamo J, Davis D, Vries B D, Fenhann J, Gaffin J, Gregory K, Grübler A, Tae Y J, Kram T, Rovere E L L, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H H, Alexei S, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, Rooijen S R, Victor N, Zhou D D. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. USA, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000: 599.
[4]林而达, 张厚瑄, 王京华. 全球气候变化对中国农业影响的模拟. 北京: 中国农业科技出版社, 1997.
[5]金之庆. 评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响. 作物学报, 1996, 22(5): 513-524.
[6]蒋高明, 韩兴国. 大气CO2浓度升高对植物的直接影响——国外十余年模拟实验研究之主要手段及基本结论. 植物生态学报, 1997, 21(6): 489-502.
[7]Allen J R. Free-air CO2 enrichment field experiment: An historical overview. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, 1992, 11: 121-134.
[8]Rosenzweig C, Curry B, Ritchie J T, Jones J W, Chou T Y, Goldberg R, Iglesias A. The effects of potential climate change on simulated grain crop in the United States. In: Rosenzweig C and Iglesias A. Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study. USEPA Policy, Planning and Education Office, Washington D C, 1994: 1-24.
[9]Kimball B A, 朱建国, 程磊, Kobayashi K, Bindi M. 开放系统中农作物对空气CO2浓度增加的响应. 应用生态学报, 2002, 13(10): 1323-1338.
[10]杨连新, 王余龙, 李世峰, 黄建晔, 董桂春, 朱建国, 刘钢, 韩勇. 开放式空气二氧化碳浓度增高对小麦物质生产与分配的影响.应用生态学报, 2007, 18(2): 339-346.
[11]黄建晔, 杨洪建, 董桂春, 王余龙, 朱建国, 杨连新, 单玉华. 开放式空气CO2浓度增高对水稻产量形成的影响. 应用生态学报, 2002, 13(10): 1210-1214.
[12]吴金栋, 王馥棠. 利用随机天气模式及多种插值方法生成逐日气候变化情景的研究. 应用气象学报, 2005, 11(2): 129-136.
[13]熊伟, 陶福禄, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化情景下我国水稻产量变化模拟. 中国农业气象, 2001, 22(3): 1-5.
[14]Mearns L O, Mavromatis T, Tsvetsinskaya E, Hays C, Easterling W. Comparative responses of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low spatial resolution climate change scenarios. Urnal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104: 6623-6646
[15]Rosenberg N J. Methodology for assessing regional agricultural consequences of climate change. Special Issue of Agriculture for Meteorology, 1992, 59: 1-127.
[16]Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A. The use of crop models for international climate change impact assessment. In: Tsuji G Y, Hoogenboom G, Thornton P K. Understanding Options for Agricultural Production. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998: 267-292.
[17]唐国平, 李秀彬, Guenther Fische, Sylvia Prieler. 气候变化对中国农业生产的影响. 地理学报, 2000, 55(2): 130-138.
[18]熊伟, 许吟隆, 林而达, 卢志光. IPCC SRES A2和B2情景下我国玉米产量变化模拟. 中国农业气象, 2005, (1): 1-5.
[19]熊伟, 许吟隆, 林而达, 田展. 区域气候模式与作物模型连接的影响评估模拟实验及不确定性分析. 生态学杂志, 2005, 24(7): 741-746.
[20]熊伟, 居辉, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化下我国小麦产量变化区域模拟研究. 中国生态农业学报, 2006, 14(2): 164-167.
[21]Zalud Z, Dubrovsky M. Modeling climate change impacts on maize growth and development in the Czech Republic. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2002, 72: 85-102.
[22]Hulme M. Climate Change and Southern Africa. Norwich. United Kingdom: Climatic Research Unit. University of East Anglia. 1996: 104-115
[23]Dhakhwa G B, Campbell C L, LeDuc S K, Cooter E J. Maize growth: Assessing the effects of global warming and CO2 fertilization with crop models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1997, 87: 253-272.
[24]Jamieson P D, Jamieson J R, Porter J R, Goudriaan J, Ritchie J T, Keulen H, Stol W A. A comparison of the models AFRCWHEAT2, CERES-Wheat, Sirius, SUCROS2 and SWHEAT with measurements from wheat grown under drought. Field Crops Research, 1998, 55: 23-44
[25]Luo Q Y, Martin A J, Bellotti W, Anthony B B. Quantitative and visual assessments of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production. Agricultural Systems, 2003, 77: 173-186.
[26]Peter G J, Philip K, Thornton P K. The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13: 51-59
[27]Holman I P, Nicholls R J, Berry P M, Harrison P A, Audsley E, Shackley S, Rounsevell M D A. A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part I. Results. Climate Change, 2005, 71: 43-73
[28]Dhungana P, Eskridge K M, Weiss A, Baenziger P S. Designing crop technology for a future climate: An example using response surface methodology and the CERES-Wheat model. Agricultural Systems, 2006, 87: 63-79.
[29]Hall A E, Allen Jr L H. Designing cultivars for the climatic condition of the next century. In: Boxton D R, Shibles R, Forsberg R A, Blad B L, Assaj K H, Paulsen G M and Wilson R F. International Crop Science I. Crop Science Society of America, Madison WI. 1993: 291-297.
[30]Lawlor D W, Mitchell R A C. Wheat responses to climate change. In: Reddy K R and Hodges H F. Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity. UK Oxon: CABI Publishing, 2000:5780.
[31]王馥棠. 气候变化对农业生态的影响. 北京: 气象出版社, 1996.
[32]张宇, 王石立, 王馥棠. 气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11(3): 265-270.
[33]葛道阔, 金之庆, 石春林, 高亮之. 气候变化对中国南方水稻生产的阶段性影响及适应性对策. 江西农业学报, 2002, 18(1): 1-8.
[34]许吟隆, 薛峰, 林一骅. 不同温室气体排放情景下中国21世纪地面气温和降水变化的模拟分析. 气候与环境研究, 2003, 8(2): 209-217.
[35]许吟隆: 中国21世纪气候变化的情景模拟分析. 南京气象学院学报, 2005, 28(3): 323-329
[36]Leggett J, Pepper W J, Swart R J. Emissions scenarios for IPCC: an update. In: Houghton J T, Callandar B A, Varney S K. Climate Change1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 1992.
[37]Xu Y L, Lin E D. Simulations on the potential impacts of GHG-induced climate change on wheat and cotton production in the middle of the 21st century in China. In: Proceedings of NIAES-STA International Workshop, 2001, Crop Monitoring and Prediction at Regional Scales. Tsukuba, Japan. 2001: 237-246.
[38]Tao F L, Xiong W, Xu Y L, Lin E D. Impacts of climate change on the potential yield of peanut in China. In: Proceedings of NIAES-STA International Workshop, 2001, Crop Monitoring and Prediction at Regional Scales. Tsukuba, Japan. 2001: 257-264.
[39]Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, Hudson D, Wilson S, Jenkins G, Mitchell J. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenario Using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. 2004: 35.
[40]许吟隆, 黄晓莹, 张勇, 林万涛, 林而达. 中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析. 气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(2): 80-83.
[41]许吟隆, Richard J. 利用ECMWF再分析数据验证PRECIS对中国
区域气候的模拟能力. 中国农业气象, 2005, 25(1): 5-9.
[42] 许吟隆, 张勇, 林一骅, 林而达, 林万涛, 董文杰, Richard J, David H, Simon W. 利用PRECIS分析SRES B2情景下中国区域的气候变化响应. 科学通报, 2006, 51(17): 2068-2074.
[43]许吟隆, 崔巧娟. 利用CERES-Maize模型检验应用RCM气候变化情景进行影响评估的方法, 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(增刊): 42-45.
[44]许吟隆, 田展. 利用RCM气候情景评估气候变化对中国小麦影响的方法论探讨, 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(增刊): 46-51.
[45]Wang J H, Lin E D. The impacts of potential climate change and climate variability on simulated maize production in China. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 1996, 92: 75-85.
[46]林而达, 王京华. 我国农业对全球变暖的敏感性和脆弱性. 农村生态环境学报, 1994, 10(1): 1-5.
[47]《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 气候变化国家评估报告.北京: 科学出版社, 2007.
[48]居辉, 熊伟, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响. 作物学报, 2005, 31(10): 1340-1343.
[49]严力蛟, 朱顺富. 农业可持续发展概论. 北京: 中国环境科学出版社, 2000.
[50]林而达. 气候变化与农业可持续发展. 北京: 北京出版社, 2001.
[51]王馥棠, 赵宗慈, 王石立, 刘文泉. 气候变化对农业生态的影响. 北京: 气象出版社, 2003.
[52]王春乙, 潘亚茹. CO2浓度倍增对中国主要作物影响的试验研究. 气象学报, 2002, 5(51): 86-94.
[53]高素华, 陈隆勋, 潘亚茹. 大气中CO2上升后的温室效应对我国主要粮食作物产量的可能影响. 中国环境科学, 1992, 12(6): 427.
[54]郑有飞, 万长建.气候变化对光和产量的影响探索. 南京气象学院学报, 1999, 4: 536-544.
[55]熊伟, 居辉, 许吟隆, 林而达. 气候变化对中国农业温度阈值影响研究及其不确定性分析. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(1): 70-76.
[56]Xiong W, Lin E D, Ju H, Xu Y L. Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security. Climate Change, 2007, 81: 205-221.
[57]中国气象局. 气候变化的科学影响与对策. 非正式出版物, 2003.
[58]戴新刚. 欧盟ADAM项目简介. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3): 185.