东北地区未来春玉米干旱风险时空分布及对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2024.12.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地，气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化，为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域，基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5 3种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料，选取作物水分亏缺指数（crop water deficit index，CWDI）为农业干旱指标，分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征，选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算，基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险，构建干旱风险指数，评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】（1）1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征，表现为内蒙古东四盟（57.3%）>黑龙江省（40.6%）>辽宁省（39.5%）>吉林省（38.9%）。（2）研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中，2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱，生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱，生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。（3）1981—2060年，SSP1-2.6低排放情景下，东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少，极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩，2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%；而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下，较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加，且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张，2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来干旱风险时空分布格局中，东北春玉米干旱风险呈现由西南向东北减少的特征，且未来SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下，较高干旱风险区向东北方向扩张，需关注作物关键生育时期提出针对性的防御措施。

关键词: 干旱风险, 气候变化, 东北地区, 春玉米, CMIP6, 作物水分亏缺指数

Abstract:

【Objective】 Drought was one of the main natural disasters which influencing agricultural production in China. As the largest maize production region in China, the frequent droughts caused by climate change have significantly affected the production of spring maize in the Northeast China. In this study, the risk of spring maize drought and its spatial pattern under future climate scenarios in the Northeast China was assessed, so as to provide a scientific basis for preventing spring maize drought and ensuring high-stable spring maize yield. 【Method】The spring maize potential planting area was focused on. Based on the daily weather data of three climate scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 output from MPI-ESM1.2-HR model under the Inter Statistical Impact Model Intercomparision Project (ISIMIP) from 1981 to 2060 and the spring maize phenology data from 53 agro-meteorological observation stations, the Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) as the agricultural drought index was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of different levels of drought in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China. The optimal probability theory distribution function was selected to estimate the probability of drought index series. The drought risk index was constructed by using different levels of drought risk for spring maize at each point estimated based on information diffusion theory. Then, spring maize drought risk in the Northeast China was assessed under different climate scenarios and future changes in the spatial pattern of risk areas by class. 【Result】(1) The drought index of spring maize in the whole growth period in research region from 1981 to 2014 was generally characterized by a high drought in the southwest and low in the northeast, showing that the four eastern leagues of Inner Mongolia (57.3%)>Heilongjiang Province (40.6%)>Liaoning Province (39.5%)>Jilin Province (38.9%). (2) The drought intensity in the middle of spring maize growth was overall higher than that in the early and late growth periods in the study area. In the 2030s and 2050s, the probability of drought risk in early growth was light drought>moderate drought ≈ severe drought>extreme drought. The probability of drought risk in middle growth was extreme drought>severe drought>light drought ≈ moderate drought. And the probability of drought risk in late growth was light drought>medium drought>heavy drought>exceptional drought. (3) From 1981 to 2060, under the SSP1-2.6 low emission scenario, the probability of occurrence of higher-grade drought risk for spring maize in Northeast China decreased, and the extremely high and higher drought risk zones was obviously shrink to the southwest, with the area share decreasing by 5.4% and 9.6% in the 2030s, and by 0.8% and 2.5% in the 2050s, respectively; while under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 two high emission scenarios, the probability of occurrence of higher-grade drought risk increased, and the higher drought risk area expanded to the northeast, with the area share increasing by 8.5% and 9.7% in the 2050s, respectively【Conclusion】 According to the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of future drought risk based on the drought risk index, the drought risk of spring maize in Northeast China decreased from southwest to northeast, and the higher-grade drought risk area expanded to northeast under the scenarios of SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 in the future, so it was necessary to pay attention to the critical growth period of maize to propose targeted defense measures.

Key words: drought risk, climate change, Northeast China, spring maize, CMIP6, crop water deficit index

杨王华, 刘志娟, 巩敬锦, 付真真, 张太林, 张晓龙, 沈彦军, 杨晓光. 东北地区未来春玉米干旱风险时空分布及对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国农业科学, 2024, 57(12): 2336-2349.

YANG WangHua, LIU ZhiJuan, GONG JingJin, FU ZhenZhen, ZHANG TaiLin, ZHANG XiaoLong, SHEN YanJun, YANG XiaoGuang. Drought Risk for Spring Maize in the Future and Response to Climate Change in the Northeast China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2024, 57(12): 2336-2349.

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等级 Grade	类型 Classification	作物水分亏缺指数数值 Values of CWDI (%)
0	无旱No drought	CWDI≤35
1	轻旱Light drought	35<CWDI≤50
2	中旱Moderate drought	50<CWDI≤65
3	重旱Severe drought	65<CWDI≤80
4	特旱Extreme drought	CWDI>80

等级 Grade	类型 Type	干旱风险指数M Hazard index of drought
0	极低 Extremely low	M≤0.94
1	较低 Lower	0.94<M≤1.39
2	中等 Moderate	1.39<M≤1.79
3	较高 Higher	1.79<M≤2.52
4	极高 Extremely high	2.52<M