关键词: 气候变化, 夏玉米-冬小麦, 种植模式, 产量

Abstract: 【Objective】Global climate is changing significantly characterized by warming. Exploring the influence of climate warming on winter wheat-【Method】 The meteorological data, phenological data and yield data of HHH during 1992-2013 were used to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize-winter wheat system by the mathematical statistics analysis method. The meteorological information including the temperature and precipitation data were obtained from China Meteorological Administration. Climate change of HHH area during 1992-2013 were analyzed by monadic linear regression. Through the weighted average of phenological data, the growth period and stubbles changes of summer maize-winter wheat were analyzed. The summer maize-winter wheat yields during 1992-2013 were analyzed by monadic linear regression. What’s more, nonlinear regression analysis and panel data sensitivity analysis were used to analyze the effect of climate change on annual yield of summer maize-winter wheat.【Result】The temperature of HHH showed a rising trend while precipitation generally remained unchange in the 1992-2013, but the regional difference was obvious. Climate change significantly changed the summer maize and winter wheat planting system: The whole growth stages of winter wheat observably shortened by 2 to 5 days in different regions with sowing time delayed. Sowing time of maize showed a difference of southern delay but northern advance while mature time delayed in general. What’s more, there was no significant change of summer maize growth period in the whole area. Stubbles time of summer maize-winter wheat was postponed because of the change of growth period, which led to the waste of climatic resources and land resources. In recent years, the anniversary yields of summer maize and winter wheat showed a significant rising trend in HHH. Climate sensitivity analysis showed that the impact of low temperature, high temperature and average temperature on winter wheat yield was alike, the yield in Jiangsu and Shandong yield decreased while that in Hebei and Henan increased, which the minimum temperature showed a significant effect. In the whole HHH plain, summer maize yield was reduced in different degrees when temperature rising except Henan province because of the difference of temperature rise range and precipitation. There were regional difference of annual yield affected by climate changes due to the regional difference of precipitation. Effect of climate change on annual yield was different that yield in north was increased but decreased in south, so choosing appropriate summer maize varieties is meaningful to guarantee the annual yield. 【Conclusion】Global warming delayed the winter wheat sowing time and shortened winter wheat growing period. It also made summer maize growth period changed that is extended in the north but that is shortened in the south. The prolonged stubbles owing to the shortened growth period led to the waste of climatic resources and land resources. Actual anniversary yield showed a significantly increasing trend in recent years. Effect of increasing temperature and precipitation had regional differences. Generally speaking, temperature rise made maize yield reduced and wheat yield increased, while precipitation made maize yield in northern HHH increased and maize yield reduced in the southern HHH as well as wheat production decreased in different degrees.summer maize cropping system in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHH) to provide a theoretical foundation for formulating reasonable counter measures.

Key words: climate change, summer maize-winter wheat, cropping pattern, yield