气候变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.10.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于已有研究成果，检测农作物病虫害发生危害时空变化对气候变暖时空变化响应的已有观测事实及其变化规律性，汇总气候变暖对农作物病虫害未来发生趋势的已有预估结果，提出其影响的最新认知，并对今后的发展方向进行了展望。气候变暖可使大部病虫害发育历期缩短、危害期延长，害虫种群增长力增加、繁殖世代数可比常年增加1个代次，发生界限北移、海拔界限高度增加，危害地理范围扩大，危害程度呈明显加重趋势。但也使一些对高温敏感的病虫害呈减弱趋势，致使小麦条锈病、蚜虫等病虫由低海拔地区向高海拔地区迁移危害。未来气候变暖将使中国大部农作物病虫害发生呈扩大、加重趋势。气候变暖对农作物病虫害的影响诊断、发生与灾变的影响预估、风险评估及适应对策将是未来需要重点解决的关键问题。

关键词: 气候变暖, 生长季, 农作物病虫害

Abstract: Based on the previous research, the existing facts of the temporal-spatial variation of crop diseases and pests in response to the climate warming in crop growing season, the regularities and the development tendency of crop diseases and pests were systematically analyzed and summarized. Then updated the understandings of impacts of climate warming on crop diseases and pests are put forward and future research trends were suggested. For most crop diseases and pests, climate warming in crop growing season could shorten the development duration, lengthen the damage period, accelerate the development of population growth, increase one more breeding generation than normal, make the occurrence boundary move northward, elevate the limit of altitude, expand the geographic range and significantly aggravate the severity. By contrast, climate warming in growing season diminished the quantity of some high temperature sensitive pests and pathogens, resulting in the migration of wheat stripe rust and aphid from low-altitude areas to high-altitude areas. Generally speaking, climate change in the future would expand the geographic range and aggravate the severity of most of the crop diseases and pests. Diagnostic analysis of the impacts of the climate warming on crop diseases and pests, impacts projection of occurrence and catastrophe, risk assessment and adaptive strategies are the key issues needed to be solved in the future.

Key words: climate warming, crop growing season, crop diseases and pests

霍治国, 李茂松, 王丽, 温泉沛, 肖晶晶, 黄大鹏, 王春艳. 气候变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(10): 1926-1934.

HUO Zhi-Guo, LI Mao-Song, WANG Li, WEN Quan-Pei, XIAO Jing-Jing, HUANG Da-Peng, WANG Chun-Yan. Impacts of Climate Warming on Crop Diseases and Pests in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(10): 1926-1934.

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