季节性变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于已有研究成果，采用农作物病虫害发生危害时空变化对季节性变暖时空变化响应事实检测的方法，系统分析和汇总季节性变暖对农作物病虫害影响的已有观测事实及其变化规律性，提出其影响的最新认知，并对今后的发展方向进行展望。已有影响事实检测表明：暖冬可使病虫进入越冬阶段推迟，延长病菌冬前侵染、冬中繁殖时间，降低害虫越冬死亡率，增加冬后菌源和虫源基数；病虫害发生期、迁入期、危害期提前；越冬北界北移、海拔上限高度升高；持续暖冬可使冬后虫源基数显著增加。与常年相比，全国性暖冬年冬中病菌繁殖侵染率可比冬前增加50%以上、冬中害虫存活率可达常年的1—2倍，冬后菌源、虫源基数增加1倍以上；持续暖冬冬后虫源基数可达常年的5倍以上；病害始见期、虫害发生期提前5 d以上，最早可分别提前20、30 d以上；稻飞虱越冬北界北移2—4个纬度，小麦条锈病越冬海拔上限高度升高100—300 m。暖春有利于病虫害危害期提前、扩展速度加快、发生程度加重。炎夏可使一些病菌越夏的海拔下限高度增加、面积和菌量减少，一些害虫发育历期延长、死亡率增加。暖秋有利于害虫滞留危害，发生代数可比常年增加1个代次。季节性变暖对农作物病虫害影响的时空变化及其规律性、发生与灾变的影响预估、风险评估及适应对策将是未来需要重点解决的关键问题。

关键词: 气候变化, 季节性变暖, 农作物病虫害

Abstract: Based on the previous research, existing facts of the impact of seasonal climate warming on crop diseases and pests and the regularities were systematically analyzed and summarized by detecting the facts of the temporal-spatial variation of crop diseases and pests in response to the seasonal climate warming. Then updated understandings of impacts of seasonal climate warming on crop diseases and pests were put forward. Additionally, directions for future research were suggested. Existing facts indicated that warm winter could delay the overwintering period of the pest and pathogen, extend pathogen infection before winter and propagation in winter, reduce overwintering pests mortality and increase the base number of pathogen source and pest source after winter, bring forward the occurrence, immigration and harm periods of diseases and pests, and also make overwintering north boundaries move northward and elevate the upper limit of overwintering altitude. Persistent warm winter could significantly increase the base number of pathogen source. Compared with the normal year, the rate of pathogen reproduction and infection in winter was more than 50% higher than that before winter. The survival rate of pests in winter was one or two times as many as in normal year, the quantity of pathogen and pest sources after winter in nationwide warm winter increased by more than one times. The base number of pest source after the persistent warm winter was more than five times as many as in normal year. The beginning occurrence period of diseases and pests was more than 5 days in advance, even more than 20 and 30 days, respectively. Rice planthoppers’ overwintering north boundary moved northward for 2-4 degrees of latitude and wheat stripe rust’s upper limit of overwintering altitude was elevated by 100-300 m. Warm spring was conductive to advance the damage period of diseases and pests, accelerate the pace of expansion and aggravate the severity. Torrid summer could elevate some pathogen’s lower limit of oversummering altitude, reduce the area and quantity, lengthen some pests developmental period and increase the mortality. Warm autumn was helpful to the residence of pests and one additional generation might occur. The temporal-spatial characteristics of impacts of the seasonal climate warming on crop diseases and pests, impacts projection of occurrence and catastrophe, risk assessment and adaptive strategies are the key issues needed to be resolved in the future.

Key words: climate change, seasonal climate warming, crop diseases and pests

霍治国, 李茂松, 李娜, 王丽, 黄大鹏, 王春艳. 季节性变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(11): 2168-2179.

HUO Zhi-Guo, LI Mao-Song, LI Na, WANG Li, HUANG Da-Peng, WANG Chun-Yan. Impacts of Seasonal Climate Warming on Crop Diseases and Pests in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(11): 2168-2179.

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