中国水稻生产的时空动态分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.17.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】绘制中国南北稻区不同稻作制度下的水稻播种面积和产量重心变动图，分析成因，找出影响现阶段中国水稻总产稳定的关键因素。【方法】利用重心拟合模型对水稻生产的时空动态进行分析，敏感性分析方法找出该变动背景下影响中国水稻总产稳定的关键因素。【结果】新中国成立以来除20世纪60、70年代中国水稻播种面积重心和产量重心向东南和东部发生偏移以外，总体上向东北方向移动。1979—2009年北方稻重心由华北快速移动到了东北松辽盆地。中稻和一季晚稻重心移动方向为先东北后东南与南方稻作制度“双改单”变化顺序由北向南相吻合。早稻和双季晚稻重心移动方向都为西南。南方稻区单季稻比例明显上升，“双改单”现象明显，这是导致中国水稻种植面积下降的主要原因。结合敏感性分析得出播种面积已成为目前最有可能造成中国水稻总产量大幅下滑的关键因素。【结论】市场机制的调控和技术进步是目前影响中国水稻时空变动的两个主要因素。在继续坚持以市场为指导的前提下，依据国情从粮食安全的角度出发，重点对面积呈下滑趋势的早稻和双季晚稻进行调控，同时兼顾水稻总面积，防止其出现较大波动，努力提高水稻单产，是确保现阶段中国水稻总产稳中有升的关键。

关键词: 水稻, 时空动态, 重心拟合模型, 敏感性分析, 龙卷风图

Abstract: 【Objective】The trajectories of center of gravity rice acreage and production in China’s north and south regions and different rice systems were drawn respectively, the causes are analyzed, and the main factors that affect the total rice production was found at present stage.【Method】Using gravity fitting model, the temporal-spatial dynamic of rice production in China was analyzed. The main factors affecting China’s total rice production at present were found with sensitivity analysis.【Result】 In addition to the 1960s and 1970s center of gravity of rice sown acreage and production in China had skewed toward the southeast and eastern, it general moved toward the northeast direction since the founding of China. In 1979-2009, the center of gravity of rice in north moved quickly to the Songliao Basin of northeast of China. Center of gravity of middle-season rice and single cropping later rice moved firstly toward northeast then toward southeast, and its direction of movement was consistent with the order of the change of southern rice system, i.e. “double cropping rice changes to single cropping rice” from north to south. Center of gravity of early-season rice and double-season later rice both moved toward southwest. The percentage of single cropping rice was increased significantly in south China; the phenomenon “change double rice to single one” was obvious, which was the main reason leading to the decline of China’s rice acreage. Combined with sensitivity analysis, we can see that the sown acreage becomes the key factor most possibly affecting rice production stability.【Conclusion】 Regulation of market mechanism and technological progress were the two main factors currently affecting the temporal-spatial dynamic changes of rice in China. Under the precondition of keeping on the guidance of the market, from the perspective of food security, according to national conditions, especially to regulate early-season rice and double-season late rice that have low costs profit margins and downward trend of acreage, at same time taking into account total rice acreage, to prevent it from large fluctuation, to improve the yield of rice constantly, is the key to ensure steady increase of China rice output at this stage.

Key words: rice, temporal-spatial dynamic, gravity fitting model, sensitivity analysis, tornado diagram

程勇翔, 王秀珍, 郭建平, 赵艳霞, 黄敬峰. 中国水稻生产的时空动态分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(17): 3473-3485.

CHENG Yong-Xiang, WANG Xiu-Zhen, GUO Jian-Ping, ZHAO Yan-Xia, HUANG Jing-Feng. The Temporal-Spatial Dynamic Analysis of China Rice Production[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(17): 3473-3485.

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https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2012/V45/I17/3473

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