|
|
|
|
|
| Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain |
| HU Ya-nan, LIU Ying-jie, TANG Hua-jun, XU Yin-long , PAN Jie |
1、Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
3、Public Meteorological Service Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P.R.China |
|
|
|
摘要 With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5°×0.5° grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline (1961-1990) and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.
Abstract With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5°×0.5° grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline (1961-1990) and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.
|
|
Received: 09 September 2013
Accepted:
|
| Fund: The study was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951502) and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2013BAC09B04). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
XU Yin-long, Tel/Fax: +86-10-82106012, E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn
E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn
|
| About author: HU Ya-nan, E-mail: huyanan@caas.cn |
Cite this article:
HU Ya-nan, LIU Ying-jie, TANG Hua-jun, XU Yin-long , PAN Jie.
2014.
Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(7): 1509-1519.
|
| Alam M M. 2011. Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation in mesoscale catchments from different RCMs and their effects on local hydrology. Ph D thesis, Universität Stuttgart. Swat, Pakistan.Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. FAO, Rome. Antwi-Agyei P, Fraser E D G, Dougill A J, Stringer L C, Simelton E. 2012. Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data. Applied Geography, 32, 324-334 Arnell N W, Hudson D A, Jones R G 2003. Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: Estimating change in runoff in southern africa. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 108, 4519-4535 Chen L X, Zhu W Q, Wang W, Zhou X J, Li W L. 1998. Studies on climate change in China in recent 45 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 56, 257-271. (in Chinese) Cheng L, Liu R H, Wang X L. 2012. Possible impacts of future climate change on irrigated winter wheat and adaptive strategies in henan province. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 23, 571-577. (in Chinese) Cheng J, Tao J P. 2010. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of drought vulnerability based on the analytic hierarchy process: An empirical study from xiaogan city in Hubei Province. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 1, 126-135. CAAS (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences). 1999. Chinese Agricultural Meteorology. Chinese Agricultural Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese) IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Core Writing Team, Pachauri R K, Reisinger A, eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. p. 104. Dai A, Trenberth K E, Qian T. 2004. A global dataset of palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, 1117-1130 FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC. 2009. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.1). FAO. Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Gijsman A J, Hoogenboom G, Parton W J, Kerridge P C. 2002. Modifying DSSAT crop models for low-input agricultural systems using a soil organic matter-residue module from century. Agronomy Journal, 94, 462-474 Hallack-Alegria M, Watkins D W. 2007. Annual and warm season drought intensity-duration-frequency analysis for Sonora, Mexico. Journal of Climate, 20, 1897-1909 Hawkins E, Osborne T M, Ho C K, Challinor A J. 2013. Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 19-31 He B, Lü A, Wu J, Zhao L, Liu M. 2011. Drought hazard assessment and spatial characteristics analysis in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21, 235-249 Ho C K, Stephenson D B, Collins M, Ferro C A T, Brown S J. 2012. Calibration strategies: A source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 21-26 Hoogenboom G, Jones J W, Wilkens P W, Porter C H, Boote K J, Hunt L A, Singh U, Lizaso J L, White J W, Uryasev O, Royce F S, Ogoshi R, Gijsman A J, Tsuji G Y, Koo J. 2012. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). ver. 4.5 [CD-ROM]. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. Hu S, Mo X, Lin Z. 2010. Emergy assessment of a wheat- maize rotation system with different water assignments in the North China Plain. Environmental Management, 46, 643-657 Hu Y N, Chai S Z, Xu Y L, Xiong W. 2008. Validation of CERES-maize model in main maize planting regions in China. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 29, 383-386 (in Chinese) Hu Y N, Li K, Xu Y L. 2013. Characteristic analysis of agricultural meteorological disasters and risk assessment of the crop loss in North China Plain during 1951-2010. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 34, 197-203. (in Chinese) Hunt L A. 2010. Genetic parameter estimation tool (gencalc). In: Jones J W, Hoogenboom G, Wilkens P W, Porter C H, Tsuji G Y, eds., Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.5. Volume 3. DSSAT v4.5: ICASA Tools. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI. pp. 1-12 Jones, J W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H, Boote K J, Batchelor W D, Hunt L A, Wilkens P W, Singh U, Gijsman A J, Ritchie J T. 2003. DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 235-265 Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, Hudson D, Wilson S S, Jenkins G J, Mitchell J F B. 2004. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Uusing PRECIS, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. p. 40. Ju H, Lin E D, Wheeler T, Challinor R, Jiang S. 2013. Climate change modelling and its roles to Chinese crops yield. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12, 892-902 Li J, Huang T P, Wang Z H. 2012. Key Technologies of Wheat-Maize Multiple Cropping Cropping and Continuous Cropping. China’s Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijing, China. Li Y P, Ye W, Wang M, Yan X D. 2009. Climate change and drought: A risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Climate Research, 39, 31-46 Liu H L, Yang J Y, Drury C F, Reynolds W D, Tan C S, Bai Y L, He P, Jin J, Hoogenboom G. 2011a. Using the DSSAT-CERES-maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 89, 313-328 Liu H L, Yang J Y, Tan C S, Drury C F, Reynolds W D, Zhang T Q, Bai Y L, Jin J, He P, Hoogenboom G. 2011b. Simulating water content, crop yield and nitrate-N loss under free and controlled tile drainage with subsurface irrigation using the DSSAT model. Agricultural Water Management, 98, 1105-1111 Liu Y, Wang E, Yang X, Wang J. 2009. Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biology, 16, 2287-2299 Lobell D B, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J. 2011. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333, 616-620 Mannocchi F, Todisco F, Vergni L. 2003. Agricultural drought: Indices, definition and analysis. In: UNESCO/IAHS/IWIIA Symposium: The Basis of Civilization -Water Science. International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Roma. Mavromatis T. 2007. Drought index evaluation for assessing future wheat production in Greece. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 911-924 Mearns L O, Giorgi F, Whetton P, Pabon D, Hulme M. 2003. Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from regional climate model experiments. In: Supporting Material of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [2013-6-30] http://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/ index.html Mir R R, Zaman-Allah M, Sreenivasulu N, Trethowan R, Varshney R K. 2012. Integrated genomics, physiology and breeding approaches for improving drought tolerance in crops. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 125, 625-645 Mkhabela M, Bullock P, Gervais M, Finlay G, Sapirstein H. 2010. Assessing indicators of agricultural drought impacts on spring wheat yield and quality on the Canadian prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150, 399-410 Naki?enovi? N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung T Y, Kram T, La Rovere E L, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H H, et al. 2000. Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Unicversity Press, New York. p. 599. Nejedlik P, Orlandini S. 2008. Survey of Agrometeorological Practices and Applications in Europe Regarding Climate Change Impacts, Impact of Climate Change and Variabilityon European Agriculture. Copisteria Sangallo Press, Bologna, Italia. Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, Laza R C, Visperas R M, Zhong X, Centeno G S, Khush G S, Cassman K G. 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 9971-9975 Porter C, Jones J W, Adiku S, Gijsman A J, Gargiulo O, Naab J B. 2010. Modeling organic carbon and carbon-mediated soil processes in DSAAT v4.5. Operational Research, 10, 247-278 Simelton E, Fraser E D G, Termansen M, Forster P M, Dougill A J. 2009. Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: An empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2001) Environmental Science & Policy, 12, 438-452. Tan J F, Han Y L. 2012. Wheat-Maize Fertilization and Efficient Integration Theory and Technology in North China. China Agricultural University Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese) Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Xu Y L, Yousay H, Zhao Z. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China 1981-2000 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 82-92 Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z. 2009. Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831-850 Tian Z, Zhong H L, Shi R H, Sun L X, Fischer G, Liang Z R. 2012. Estimating potential yield of wheat production in China based on cross-scale data-model fusion. Frontiers of Earth Science, 6, 364-372 Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, Gimeno L, Eklundh L, Giuliani G, Weston D, El Kenawy A, López-Moreno J I, Nieto R, Ayenew T, Konte D, Ardö J, Pegram G G S 2012. Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa: The potential use of geospatial data and drought information systems. Applied Geography, 34, 471-486 Wang J, Wang E L, Yang X G, Zhang F S, Yin H. 2012. Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation. Climatic Change, 113, 825-840 Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes M J 2004 A self-calibrating palmer drought severity index. Journal of Climate, 17, 2335-2351. Xiao J J, Huo Z G, Jin Z F, Li N, Wang L, Lu X F, Zhang L. 2012. Meteorological grading indices of water-saving irrigation for winter wheat. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31, 2521-2528 (in Chinese) Xiong W, Holman I, Conway D, Lin E D, Li Y E. 2008. A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies. Ecological Modelling, 213, 365-380 Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E D, Conway D, Jiang J H, Xu Y L, Li Y E. 2010. Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 135, 58-69 Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E, Conway D, Li Y, Wu W. 2012. Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 1-14 Xiong W, Matthews R, Holman I, Lin E, Xu Y. 2007. Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change. Climatic Change, 85, 433-451 Zhang G R. 2009. Integration of Wheat Corn Cultivation Techniques. China’s Agricultural Science and Technology Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese) |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
