全球农业农村现代化的演变趋势与影响因素

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.24.015

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Agricultural and rural modernization needs to be grounded in both general global patterns and unique Chinese characteristics. From a global perspective, investigating its evolutionary trends and influencing factors is of great significance for advancing China's comprehensive rural revitalization. 【Method】This study constructed an evaluation index system incorporating two dimensions: agricultural modernization and rural modernization. Based on the measurement of agricultural and rural development levels in 152 countries from 2000 to 2022, three-dimensional kernel density estimation and spatial Gini coefficient were employed to reveal the evolutionary trends of global agricultural and rural modernization. Furthermore, the optimal-parameter geographical detector was utilized to identify the intensity and interaction effects of socio-economic and agricultural factors. 【Result】Over the past two decades, global agricultural and rural modernization level has shown a steady upward trend. The gap between low-income and middle-income countries has been narrowing annually, yet a substantial gap with high-income countries persists. China has made remarkable progress in its agricultural and rural modernization, with its international ranking climbing from 78th to 57th. Regarding general patterns, economic development level remained a key driver. The roles of industrial structure and agricultural trade openness have become increasingly prominent. The contribution of agricultural technological progress remained important but exhibited a diminishing marginal trend, while the impact of agricultural land use structure was characterized by long-term complexity. In terms of differentiated patterns, informatization level was the primary driver for low- and lower-middle-income countries to achieve catch-up, whereas its influence diminished in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Population aging has become the dominant constraint hindering agricultural and rural modernization in middle-income countries, with a relatively minor impact on high-income countries. Environmental protection intensity showed significant differentiated effects across different income groups. The proportion of negative interaction effects between factors in low-income country groups has significantly decreased. Interaction effects among factors in lower-middle-income country groups have entirely transitioned to positive synergistic effects. Synergistic enhancement effects were prevalent among factors in upper-middle-income and high-income country groups. This indicated that the spatial-temporal differentiation of global agricultural and rural modernization was a result of the combined influence of socio-economic and agricultural factors. 【Conclusion】In advancing comprehensive rural revitalization, China should adhere to a "dual-driven" approach of concurrently promoting agricultural modernization and rural modernization. It was crucial to coordinate the relationships among economic development, social progress, and environmental protection to ultimately achieve integrated urban-rural development.

Key words: agricultural and rural modernization development, agricultural modernization, rural modernization, global patterns, Chinese characteristics

WANG Wei, CHEN YangFen. Evolutionary Trends and Influencing Factors of Global Agricultural and Rural Modernization[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2025, 58(24): 5299-5314.

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Figures/Tables 10

Table 1

Evaluation indicator system for agricultural and rural modernization"

维度层 Dimension layer	指标层 Indicator layer	指标释义 Indicator definition	属性 Attribute	权重 Weight
农业现代化 Agricultural modernization （0.5）	农业劳动生产率 Agricultural labor productivity	农林牧渔业增加值/农业就业人员（万美元/人） Added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery/Agricultural employment (10⁴ USD/person)	正 Positive	0.3312
	粮食单产 Grain yield per unit area	粮食产量/粮食播种面积（吨/公顷） Grain output/Grain sown area (tons/hectare)	正 Positive	0.1723
	农业资本投入强度 Agricultural capital input intensity	农林牧渔业资本存量/农业用地面积（万美元/公顷） Capital stock of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery/Agricultural land area (10⁴ USD/hm²)	正 Positive	0.0569
	农产品国际市场占有率 International market share of agricultural products	农产品出口额/世界农产品出口额（%） Agricultural export value/World agricultural export value (%)	正 Positive	0.2884
	谷物自给率 Cereal self-sufficiency rate	谷物产量/（谷物产量+谷物进口量-谷物出口量）（%） Cereal production/ (Cereal production+Cereal imports-Cereal exports) (%)	正 Positive	0.0718
	食物供应量 Food supply	食物供应总量/总人口/当年天数（千卡/人/天） Total food supply/Total population/Days in the year (kcal/person/day)	正 Positive	0.0643
	农用化学品使用强度 Agrochemical use intensity	化肥农药使用量/耕地面积（千克/公顷） Fertilizer and pesticide use/Cultivated land area (kg·hm²)	负 Negative	0.0087
	农业碳排放强度 Agricultural carbon intensity	农业碳排放量/农林牧渔业增加值（吨/万美元） Agricultural carbon emissions/Added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (tons/10⁴ USD)	负 Negative	0.0064
农村现代化 Rural modernization （0.5）	乡村人口比重 Rural population proportion	农村人口/总人口（%） Rural population/Total population (%)	负 Negative	0.1045
	非农就业占比 Non-agricultural employment share	非农就业人员/就业人员（%） Non-agricultural employment/Total employment (%)	正 Positive	0.0792
	农业相对劳动生产率 Agricultural relative labor productivity	农林牧渔业增加值份额/农业就业人员份额（—） Share of added value in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery/Share of agricultural employment (—)	正 Positive	0.0852
	农村通电率 Rural electrification rate	获得电力供应的农村人口/农村总人口（%） Rural population with access to electricity/Total rural population (%)	正 Positive	0.1956
	农村供水率 Rural water supply rate	至少使用基本饮用水服务的农村人口/农村总人口（%） Rural population using at least basic drinking water services/Total rural population (%)	正 Positive	0.0700
	农村清洁能源使用率 Rural clean energy usage rate	获得清洁燃料和烹饪技术的农村人口/农村总人口（%） Rural population with access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking/Total rural population (%)	正 Positive	0.3508
	农村卫生设施普及率 Rural sanitation facility coverage rate	至少使用基本卫生服务的农村人口/农村总人口（%） Rural population using at least basic sanitation services/Total rural population (%)	正 Positive	0.0913
	营养不良发生率 Malnutrition incidence rate	营养不良人口/总人口（%） Undernourished population/Total population (%)	负 Negative	0.0234

Table 1

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年份 Year	总体基尼系数 Overall Gini coefficient	各部分贡献度Contribution of each part (%)
年份 Year	总体基尼系数 Overall Gini coefficient	组内差异 Within-group differences	组间差异 Between-group differences	超变密度 Super-variate density
2000	0.2444	11.25	85.01	3.74
2002	0.2414	11.20	85.15	3.64
2004	0.2380	11.38	84.86	3.75
2006	0.2315	11.47	84.57	3.96
2008	0.2275	11.62	84.59	3.79
2010	0.2223	11.82	84.39	3.79
2012	0.2182	11.97	84.35	3.68
2014	0.2141	12.06	84.41	3.53
2016	0.2085	12.05	84.50	3.45
2018	0.2024	12.01	84.76	3.24
2020	0.1994	12.00	84.80	3.20
2022	0.1967	12.17	84.71	3.12

影响因素 Influencing factor	低收入国家组 Low-income country group		中低收入国家组 Lower-middle-income country group		中高收入国家组 Upper-middle-income country group		高收入国家组 High-income country group
影响因素 Influencing factor	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank
经济发展水平（X₁） Economic development level (X₁)	0.7683	1	0.5486	1	0.2150	4	0.6942	1
信息化水平（X₂） Informatization level (X₂)	0.1847	8	0.4026	3	0.2943	2	0.5191	2
产业结构（X₃） Industrial structure (X₃)	0.5163	2	0.1541	7	0.1557	6	0.1391	8
人口老龄化水平（X₄） Population aging level (X₄)	0.3024	4	0.2673	5	0.2896	3	0.1845	7
农产品贸易开放（X₅） Agricultural trade openness (X₅)	0.2306	7	0.1714	6	0.1766	5	0.1917	6
农业技术进步（X₆） Agricultural technological progress (X₆)	0.2732	5	0.3131	4	0.3347	1	0.3544	3
环境保护力度（X₇） Environmental protection intensity (X₇)	0.3682	3	0.4768	2	0.0878	7	0.2113	5
农地利用结构（X₈） Agricultural land use structure (X₈)	0.2564	6	0.1386	8	0.0623	8	0.2502	4

影响因素 Influencing factor	低收入国家组 Low-income country group		中低收入国家组 Lower-middle-income country group		中高收入国家组 Upper-middle-income country group		高收入国家组 High-income country group
影响因素 Influencing factor	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank	q值 q-value	排序 Rank
经济发展水平（X₁） Economic development level (X₁)	0.2253	7	0.5707	2	0.2599	2	0.6212	1
信息化水平（X₂） Informatization level (X₂)	0.4710	1	0.6074	1	0.2313	4	0.4186	2
产业结构（X₃） Industrial structure (X₃)	0.2551	6	0.3590	4	0.1657	6	0.2463	4
人口老龄化水平（X₄） Population aging level (X₄)	0.3025	5	0.4561	3	0.7159	1	0.1128	8
农产品贸易开放（X₅） Agricultural trade openness (X₅)	0.4378	3	0.1309	8	0.2516	3	0.2469	3
农业技术进步（X₆） Agricultural technological progress (X₆)	0.3285	4	0.2700	5	0.2154	5	0.1935	6
环境保护力度（X₇） Environmental protection intensity (X₇)	0.4601	2	0.1758	7	0.1085	8	0.2385	5
农地利用结构（X₈） Agricultural land use structure (X₈)	0.1907	8	0.2244	6	0.1445	7	0.1621	7

Evolutionary Trends and Influencing Factors of Global Agricultural and Rural Modernization

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[1]	HU ZhiQuan, ZHU DianXiao, XIN Ling, HOU LiWei, WANG DongYang. Comparison Study on the Level of International Agricultural Modernization Based on the Method of Generation Gap of Industry Elements [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2018, 51(7): 1412-1420.
[2]	WU Yi-Ping, CHEN Su-Yun, SUN De-Zhong. Research on Path and Key Problem of Coordinated Development of Urbanization, Agricultural Modernization and Industrialization in Central Plains Economic Region [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(21): 4528-4533.