Abstract: 【OBJECTIVE】In order to optimize the climate control for greenhouse cut chrysanthemum production, a simulation model for predicting single flower cut chrysanthemum development and harvest date was developed. 【METHOD】 Based on the effects of temperature and radiation on chrysanthemum development, the concept of physiological accumulated product of thermal effectiveness and PAR (PTEP) is proposed and used to predict cut chrysanthemum development stages. Experiments with different varieties, cutting dates and plant densities were carried out in greenhouses to collect data to develop and validate the model. 【RESULTS】The results show that the simulated results agree well with the observed ones. Based on the 1:1 line, the root mean squared error (RMSE) from cutting to planting, short-day, bud showing and harvest stage were, respectively, 2.27, 2.92, 1.22 and 3.19 days. Compared with the model based on the Growth Degree Days (GDD), the prediction accuracy of the model developed in this study is significantly higher than that of the GDD based model (RMSE is 3.00、12.54、12.50 and 15.58 days, respectively, from cutting to planting, short-day, bud showing and harvest stages). 【CONCLUSION】 It can be concluded that the model developed in this study can give satisfactory prediction of single flower cut chrysanthemum development and harvest date and can be used for decision making for the optimization of the climate control for greenhouse cut chrysanthemum production