中国农业科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (18): 3847-3859.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.005
收稿日期:
2020-11-19
接受日期:
2021-02-01
出版日期:
2021-09-16
发布日期:
2021-09-26
联系方式:
李娥,E-mail: lie@cau.edu.cn。
基金资助:
LI E1(),ZHAO Jin1(
),YE Qing2,GAO JiQing1,YANG XiaoGuang1
Received:
2020-11-19
Accepted:
2021-02-01
Published:
2021-09-16
Online:
2021-09-26
摘要:
【目的】研究气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整敏感区域内的降水条件变化及其对产量的可能影响,为当地春玉米种植品种熟型的调整提供科学参考。【方法】以1985年为时间节点,将1961—2017年分为2个时间段(1961—1985年和1986—2017年)。基于东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整敏感区域内的24个地面气象观测站点1961—2017年地面气象观测资料和16个农业气象试验站点1981—2007年玉米生育期的观测资料,分析春玉米不同生育阶段水分条件的变化特征,并运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算降水条件变化对生产潜力的影响。【结果】(1)1961—2017年,东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整的敏感地带内实际播种期呈提前趋势,成熟期呈推迟趋势,实际生产中品种熟型的调整导致实际生育期延长。(2)敏感区域内春玉米品种熟型的调整,使生育前期(播种—拔节)和后期(开花—成熟)需水量增加,生育中期(拔节—开花)需水量减少;同时,生育前期有效降水量呈现增加趋势,生育中期和后期有效降水量呈现减少趋势。(3)品种熟型调整后,春玉米生育中期有效降水量满足率最低。(4)品种熟型调整后,气候生产潜力在中晚熟品种调整为晚熟的区域5南部和西部的宽甸和通榆站点呈减小趋势,波动性增加,在特早熟品种调整为早熟的区域1和早熟品种调整为中熟的区域3北部气候生产潜力呈增加趋势且波动性降低。【结论】全球气候变化的背景下,东北地区敏感区域内有效降水量满足率在生育中期和后期降低,气候生产潜力在研究区域的西部和南部减小、东部增大且不稳定性高。因此,在敏感区域的东部、西部和南部仍要进一步关注品种熟型的选取,同时在春玉米生育中期和后期,及时进行灌溉补充水分,确保春玉米产量。
李娥,赵锦,叶清,高继卿,杨晓光. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响ⅩⅢ. 东北三省春玉米熟型调整的降水限制及其对产量的可能影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859.
LI E,ZHAO Jin,YE Qing,GAO JiQing,YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859.
表1
所用气象站点区域分布及生育期站点和生育期数据年限"
区域名称 Area name | 品种熟型调整特征 Adjustment characteristics of maturity cultivars | 站点名称 Station name | 所用生育期站点名称 Name of growth period station used | 生育期数据时间 Growth period data time |
---|---|---|---|---|
区域1 Area 1 | 特早熟调整为早熟 Especial-early was adjusted into early | 黑河 Heihe | 嘉萌Jiameng | 1995-2007 |
孙吴Sunwu | 嘉萌Jiameng | 1995-2007 | ||
区域2 Area 2 | 早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle | 克山Keshan | 海伦Hailun | 1981-2007 |
明水Mingshui | 青冈Qinggang | 1982-2007 | ||
海伦Hailun | 海伦Hailun | 1981-2007 | ||
铁力Tieli | 佳木斯Jiamusi | 1990-2007 | ||
鹤岗Hegang | 集贤Jixian | 1983-2007 | ||
区域3 Area 3 | 早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle | 虎林Hulin | 集贤Jixian | 1983-2007 |
尚志Shangzhi | 五常Wuchang | 1983-2007 | ||
区域4 Area 4 | 中熟调整为中晚熟 Middle was adjusted into middle-late | 齐齐哈尔Qiqihaer | 富裕Fuyu | 1995-2007 |
安达Anda | 青冈Qinggang | 1982-2007 | ||
哈尔滨Harbin | 哈尔滨Harbin | 1984-2007 | ||
三岔河Sanchahe | 扶余Fuyu | 1981-1989、2000-2006 | ||
桦甸Huadian | 桦甸Huadian | 1981-2006 | ||
通化Tonghua | 通化Tonghua | 1981-2006 | ||
临江Linjiang | 梅河口Meihekou | 1985-2006 | ||
区域5 Area 5 | 中晚熟调整为晚熟 Middle-late was adjusted into late | 通榆Tongyu | 长岭Changling | 1981-2006 |
乾安Qian’an | 农安Nong’an | 1984-2004 | ||
长岭Changling | 长岭Changling | 1981-2006 | ||
双辽Shuangliao | 梨树Lishu | 1981-2006 | ||
四平Siping | 梨树Lishu | 1981-2006 | ||
宽甸Kuandian | 宽甸Kuandian | 1981-1993 | ||
前郭尔罗斯Qianguoerluosi | 农安Nong’an | 1984-2004 | ||
集安Ji’an | 通化Tonghua | 1981-2006 |
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