全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响ⅩⅢ. 东北三省春玉米熟型调整的降水限制及其对产量的可能影响

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.18.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整敏感区域内的降水条件变化及其对产量的可能影响,为当地春玉米种植品种熟型的调整提供科学参考。【方法】以1985年为时间节点,将1961—2017年分为2个时间段（1961—1985年和1986—2017年）。基于东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整敏感区域内的24个地面气象观测站点1961—2017年地面气象观测资料和16个农业气象试验站点1981—2007年玉米生育期的观测资料,分析春玉米不同生育阶段水分条件的变化特征,并运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算降水条件变化对生产潜力的影响。【结果】（1）1961—2017年,东北三省春玉米品种熟型调整的敏感地带内实际播种期呈提前趋势,成熟期呈推迟趋势,实际生产中品种熟型的调整导致实际生育期延长。（2）敏感区域内春玉米品种熟型的调整,使生育前期（播种—拔节）和后期（开花—成熟）需水量增加,生育中期（拔节—开花）需水量减少;同时,生育前期有效降水量呈现增加趋势,生育中期和后期有效降水量呈现减少趋势。（3）品种熟型调整后,春玉米生育中期有效降水量满足率最低。（4）品种熟型调整后,气候生产潜力在中晚熟品种调整为晚熟的区域5南部和西部的宽甸和通榆站点呈减小趋势,波动性增加,在特早熟品种调整为早熟的区域1和早熟品种调整为中熟的区域3北部气候生产潜力呈增加趋势且波动性降低。【结论】全球气候变化的背景下,东北地区敏感区域内有效降水量满足率在生育中期和后期降低,气候生产潜力在研究区域的西部和南部减小、东部增大且不稳定性高。因此,在敏感区域的东部、西部和南部仍要进一步关注品种熟型的选取,同时在春玉米生育中期和后期,及时进行灌溉补充水分,确保春玉米产量。

关键词: 东北三省, 敏感区, 春玉米, 生产潜力

Abstract:

【Objective】Under the background of climate change, this study focused on the changing precipitation and its possible influence on yield in the sensitive areas with adjusting spring maize maturity cultivars in the three provinces in Northeastern China, which could provide a scientific reference for the local cultivars’ adjustment of spring maize. 【Method】 Taking 1985 as the time node, the period of 1961-2017 was split into two sub-periods (1961-1985 and 1986-2017) in this study. Based on the observed meteorological data in 24 meteorological stations and observed maize growth stages in 16 agrometeorological experimental stations in the sensitive area, the changing characteristics of water conditions in the maize growth stages was analyzed, and the influence of precipitation on the climatic potential yield was adjusted by the ‘correction step by step’ method. 【Result】(1)During 1961-2017, the actual sowing dates in the sensitive area showed an advanced trend, while the maturity dates showed a delayed trend, which indicated the adjustment of maturity cultivars in the actual practice and the actual growth stage was prolonged. (2)The adjustment of maturity cultivars in sensitive areas increased the water demand in the early (sowing to jointing) and late (flowering to maturity) stages, but decreased the water demand in the middle (jointing to flowering) stage. Meanwhile, the effective precipitation in the early stage showed an increasing trend, while a decreasing trend was found in the middle and late stages. (3)After the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the satisfaction rate of effective precipitation in the middle stage was the lowest. (4)With the adjustment of maturity cultivars, the climatic potential yield showed a decreasing trend in Kuandian and Tongyu stations in the south and west of area 5, where those middle-late-maturing cultivars were adjusted into late-maturing ones. However, the climatic potential yield showed an increasing trend and decreased in the north of area 1 where especial-early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into early-maturing cultivars, and area 3 where early-maturing cultivars were adjusted into middle-maturing cultivars. 【Conclusion】 Under the background of climate change, the effective precipitation satisfaction rate, K value in sensitive areas of Northeast China decreased in the middle and late growth stages, and the climatic potential yield decreased in the west and south of the study area, while increased in the east with high instability. Therefore, in the eastern, western, and southern parts of sensitive areas, more attention should be paid to the selection of mature cultivars of spring maize, and irrigation should be carried out in time in the middle and late growth stages of spring maize.

Key words: three provinces of Northeastern China, sensitive area, spring maize, production potential

李娥,赵锦,叶清,高继卿,杨晓光. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响ⅩⅢ. 东北三省春玉米熟型调整的降水限制及其对产量的可能影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859.

LI E,ZHAO Jin,YE Qing,GAO JiQing,YANG XiaoGuang. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China ⅫⅠ. Precipitation Limitation on Adjusting Maturity Cultivars of Spring Maize and Its Possible Influence on Yield in Three Provinces of Northeastern China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2021, 54(18): 3847-3859.

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区域名称 Area name	品种熟型调整特征 Adjustment characteristics of maturity cultivars	站点名称 Station name	所用生育期站点名称 Name of growth period station used	生育期数据时间 Growth period data time
区域1 Area 1	特早熟调整为早熟 Especial-early was adjusted into early	黑河 Heihe	嘉萌Jiameng	1995-2007
区域1 Area 1	特早熟调整为早熟 Especial-early was adjusted into early	孙吴Sunwu	嘉萌Jiameng	1995-2007
区域2 Area 2	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	克山Keshan	海伦Hailun	1981-2007
		明水Mingshui	青冈Qinggang	1982-2007
		海伦Hailun	海伦Hailun	1981-2007
		铁力Tieli	佳木斯Jiamusi	1990-2007
		鹤岗Hegang	集贤Jixian	1983-2007
区域3 Area 3	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	虎林Hulin	集贤Jixian	1983-2007
区域3 Area 3	早熟调整为中熟 Early was adjusted into middle	尚志Shangzhi	五常Wuchang	1983-2007
区域4 Area 4	中熟调整为中晚熟 Middle was adjusted into middle-late	齐齐哈尔Qiqihaer	富裕Fuyu	1995-2007
		安达Anda	青冈Qinggang	1982-2007
		哈尔滨Harbin	哈尔滨Harbin	1984-2007
		三岔河Sanchahe	扶余Fuyu	1981-1989、2000-2006
		桦甸Huadian	桦甸Huadian	1981-2006
		通化Tonghua	通化Tonghua	1981-2006
		临江Linjiang	梅河口Meihekou	1985-2006
区域5 Area 5	中晚熟调整为晚熟 Middle-late was adjusted into late	通榆Tongyu	长岭Changling	1981-2006
		乾安Qian’an	农安Nong’an	1984-2004
		长岭Changling	长岭Changling	1981-2006
		双辽Shuangliao	梨树Lishu	1981-2006
		四平Siping	梨树Lishu	1981-2006
		宽甸Kuandian	宽甸Kuandian	1981-1993
		前郭尔罗斯Qianguoerluosi	农安Nong’an	1984-2004
		集安Ji’an	通化Tonghua	1981-2006

Kc	前期 Early stage	中期 Middle stage	后期 Late stage
Kc	0.3	1.15	0.6
生育阶段 Growth period	播种—拔节 Sowing-jointing	拔节—开花（吐丝） Jointing-flowering (spinning)	开花（吐丝）—成熟 Flowering (spinning)-maturity