关键词: 冬油菜 , 最大熵模型 , GIS , 气候适宜性

Abstract: 【Objective】By analyzing the relationship between rapeseed cultivation and climatic conditions of arid and cold regions in North China, dividing regions with climatic adaption for winter rapeseed, this paper aimed to provide a reference for improving winter rapeseed production layout and restructuring agricultural construction. 【Method】 Based on experimental data of rapeseed varieties in different zones and climate data of long sequences, using GIS spatial analysis functions and maximum entropy models, the relational potential climatic factors for the distribution of winter rape growing were screened, meteorological factors were used to establish the potential of spatial database based on the DEM method of small grid reckoning. This study analyzed the relationship between rapeseed cultivation and climatic conditions in arid and cold regions, simulated the potential distribution probability and divided grow regions with climatic adaption for winter rapeseed.【Result】The total contribution rate of the potential to meteorological factors to the distribution of winter rape cultivation was 0.89, and according to the size of the contribution rate, there were 5 major climatic factors affecting the growth distribution of winter rapeseed, including annual average temperature, negative accumulated temperature, extreme low temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and the average temperature of the coldest month. The potential distribution probability of winter rapeseed ranges was 0-0.84 in arid and cold regions. Growth regions were divided into four levels according to climatic adaption: unsuitable, less suitable, suitable and optimum suitable. The northern boundary of winter rapeseed cultivation have reached the southern Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang as new boundaries, the northern boundary has expanded northward about 1 200 km, from the 39°N raised to 45°N compared with the traditional winter rapeseed planting northern boundary. 【Conclusion】 This study revealed the main climate factors affecting growth distribution of winter rapeseed, divided suitable growth areas for winter rapeseed of arid and cold regions in regional scale. About more than 50% of region can be planted with winter rapeseed in northern and cold regions of China. It was proved that it is possible to expand winter rapeseed northwards into arid and cold regions in North China. Winter rapeseed will be an important oil crop in northern and cold regions of China, and it will break the existing traditional winter rapeseed planting division, changing the layout of winter rapeseed production structure.

Key words: winter rapeseed , maximum entropy models , GIS , climatic suitability