黑龙江省春玉米产量潜力及产量差的时空分布特征

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.10.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】研究黑龙江省春玉米不同水平产量潜力及各级产量潜力之间产量差的时空分布特征，分析研究区域制约春玉米生产的限制因素。【方法】以黑龙江省春玉米种植区为研究区域，利用当地气候资料、作物生育期、栽培管理措施和土壤资料，使用区域尺度验证后的农业生产系统模型（APSIM），分析研究区域春玉米1981—2010年不同水平产量潜力，明确春玉米产量潜力及各级产量差的时空分布特征。【结果】研究区域内春玉米产量潜力与玉米生长季内日照时数分布趋势一致，西部高于东部，产量潜力年际变化趋势有增有减；春玉米雨养产量分布特征与生长季降水量分布特征相似，表现为中部高于东西部的趋势，降水量愈少的地区，雨养产量低且稳产性愈差；最近30年研究区域82%的站点雨养产量呈下降趋势，雨养产量的不稳定性远高于产量潜力的不稳定性，气候土壤生产力区域特征为西部齐齐哈尔和绥化地区最低。近30年因降水变化造成的产量差呈增加趋势，表明生长季干旱发生风险加大。【结论】降水是制约黑龙江省西部玉米产量的主要因素，可通过灌溉提高产量；中部伊春地区、通河地区和牡丹江地区，水分不是限制春玉米产量的因素，提高产量的途径是改良土壤条件及优化栽培管理措施；在雨养条件下，东部的三江平原通过改良土壤物理性状，可提高产量16%—22%。

关键词: 黑龙江省, 春玉米, 产力潜力, 产量差, 时空分布

Abstract: 【Objective】The objectiveb of this study is to figure out the spatial-temporal characteristics of potential yield and yield gaps between different levels, and to explicit the constraints of spring maize production in the study region. 【Method】 The well-calibrated and validated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator Model (APSIM) on a region scale was used to assess spring maize potential yields at different levels, and spatial-temporal characteristics of potential yield and yield gaps between different levels in Heilongjiang province from 1981-2010, based on the weather, phenology, management practices and soil data.【Result】In the study area, the spatial distribution of maize potential yield was similar to sunshine hours in maize growing season, which was higher in west than in east. The potential yield of maize showed an inconsistent trend during the past 30 years. The distribution of rain-fed yield was similar to the precipitation during maize growing season, and showed a positive association with precipitation. The rain-fed yield was in the order of central＞east＞west. The rain-fed yield was lower and unstable in the region with lower precipitation. The rain-fed yield in 82% of the selected stations showed a decreasing trend during the past 30 years. Instability of rain-fed yield was higher than potential yield. Qiqihaer and Suihua city showed lower values of climate-soil productivity. In the past 30 years, the yield gap caused by precipitation showed an increasing tendency, indicating the aggravated risk of drought. 【Conclusion】 The precipitation is the key constraints factor on yield in the West of Heilongjiang province, and yield could be increased by irrigation, however precipitation is not the limiting factors on yield in Yichun, Tonghe and Mudanjiang, and yield could be increased by improving soil conditions, optimizing management practices. Yield can be increased by 16%-22% through improving the physical properties of soil under the rain-fed condition in Sanjiang Plain of the eastern Heilongjiang province.

Key words: Heilongjiang province, spring maize, potential yield, yield gap, spatial-temporal characteristics

王静, 杨晓光, 吕硕, 刘志娟, 李克南, 荀欣, 刘园, 王恩利. 黑龙江省春玉米产量潜力及产量差的时空分布特征[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(10): 1914-1925.

WANG Jing, YANG Xiao-Guang, 吕Shuo , LIU Zhi-Juan, LI Ke-南, XUN Xin, LIU Yuan, WANG 恩Li. Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Potential Yields and Yield Gaps of Spring Maize in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(10): 1914-1925.

0
/ / 推荐

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

链接本文: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.10.004

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2012/V45/I10/1914

参考文献

[1] IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ to the Fourth Assessment Repert of the Lnterqovermental Panel on Climate Change. [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switezerland, 104pp.

[2] 潘华盛, 张桂华, 徐南平. 20世纪80年代以来黑龙江气候变暖的初步分析. 气候与环境研究, 2003, 8(3): 348-355.

Pan H S, Zhang G H, Xu N P. A preliminary analysis of climate warming in heilongjiang province since the 1980s. Climatic and Environmental Research,2003, 8(3): 348-355. (in Chinese)

[3] 刘志娟, 杨晓光, 王文峰, 李克南, 张晓煜. 气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2009, 20(9): 2199-2206.

Liu Z J Yang X G, Wang W F, Li K N, Zhang X Y. Characteristic of agricultural climate resource in the context of global climate change in three provinces of Northeast China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2009, 20(9): 2199-2206. (in Chinese)

[4] 李正国, 杨鹏, 唐华俊, 吴文斌, 陈仲新, 周清波, 邹金秋, 张莉. 气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物典型物候期变化趋势分析. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44(20): 4180-4189.

Li Z G, Yang P, Tang H J, Wu W B, Chen Z X, Zhou Q B, Zou J Q, Zhang L. Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(20): 4180-4189. (in Chinese)

[5] 赵俊芳, 杨晓光, 刘志娟. 气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响. 生态学报, 2009, 29(12): 6544-6551.

Zhao J F, Yang X G, Liu Z J. Influence of climate warming on serious low temperature and cold damage and cultivation pattern of spring maize in Northeast China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(12): 6544-6551.(in Chinese)

[6] 李克南, 杨晓光, 刘志娟, 王文峰, 陈阜. 全球气候变化对中国种植制度可能影响分析Ⅲ.中国北方地区气候资源变化特征及其对种植制度界限的可能影响. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43(10): 2088-2097.

Li K N, Yang X G, Liu Z J, Wang W F, Chen F. Analysis of the potential influence of global climate change on cropping systems in China Ⅲ. the change characteristics of climatic resources in Northern China and its potential influence on cropping systems. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(10): 2088-2097.(in Chinese)

[7] 中华人民共和国农业部, 新中国农业60年统计资料. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2009:240-246.

China National Ministry Of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistical Data from 1949 to 2008 in China. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2009: 240-246.(in Chinese)

[8] 刘玉杰, 杨艳昭, 封志明. 中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及其可能影响. 资源科学, 2007, 29(2): 8-14.

Liu Y J, Yang Y Z, Feng Z M. The change of the main regions for China’s foodgrain production and its implications. Resources Science, 2007, 29(2): 8-14. (in Chinese)

[9] 程叶青, 张平宇. 东北商品粮基地粮食生产的区域分异. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(6): 925-931.

Cheng Y Q, Zhang P Y. Regional differentiation of grain production of commidity grain bases in the Northeast China. Journal of Natural Resources. 2005, 20(6):925-931. (in Chinese)

[10] 王涛, 吕昌河, 于伯华. 基于WOFOST模型的京津冀地区冬小麦生产潜力评价. 自然资源学报, 2010(3): 475-787.

Wang T, Lv C H, Yu B H. Assessing the potential productivity of winter wheat using WOFOST in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010(3): 475-787.(in Chinese)

[11] 谷冬艳, 刘建国, 杨忠渠, 尹钧. 作物生产潜力模型研究进展. 干旱地区农业研究, 2007(5):89-94.

Gu D Y, Liu J G, Yang Z Q, Yin J. Reviews on crop productivity potential researches. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007(5): 89-94. ( in Chinese)

[12] De Datta S K. Principles And Practices of Rice Production. New York(USA): Wiley-Interscience Publications, 1981:555-562.

[13] Fresco L O. Issues in farming systems research. Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, 1984, 32: 253-261.

[14] De Bie, CAJM. Comparative performance analysis of agro-ecosys- tems. PhD. Wageningen Agricultural University, The Nether lands, 2000.

[15] Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I. Regional importance of crop yield constraints: Linking simulation models and geostatistics to interpret spatial patterns. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 196:173-182.

[16] Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I, Addams C L, Asner Gregory P. Soil, climate, and management impacts on regional wheat productivity in Mexico from remote sensing Agricultural and Forest Methodology, 2002, 114: 31-43.

[17] 王纯枝, 宇振荣, 辛景峰, Driessen P M, 刘云慧. 基于遥感和作物生长模型的作物产量差估测. 农业工程学报, 2005, 21(7): 84-89.

Wang C Z, Yu Z R , Xing J F, Driessen P M, Liu Y H. Yield gap estimation by combining remote sensing and crop growth model. Transactions of the CSAE, 2005, 21(7): 84-89 .(in Chinese)

[18] Spitters C J T ,van Keulen H, van Kraalingen D W G. A simple and universal crop growth simulator: SUCROS87//Rabbinge R, Ward S A, van Laar H H. Simulation and Systems Management in Crop Protection. Simulation Monographs, PUDOC, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 1989.

[19] 曹云者, 刘宏, 王中义, 宇振荣. 基于作物生长模拟模型的河北省玉米生产潜力研究. 农业环境科学学报, 2008, 27(2) : 826-832.

Cao Y Z, Liu H, Wang Z Y, Yu Z R. Potential productivity of maize based on model simulation in hebei provinc. Journal of Agro- Environment Science, 2008, 27(2):826-832.(in Chinese)

[20] 戴明宏, 陶洪斌, 廖树华, 王利纳, 王璞. 基于CERES-Maize 模型的华北平原玉米生产潜力的估算与分析. 农业工程学报, 2008, 24(4): 30-36.

Dai M H, Tao H B, Liao S H, Wang L N, Wang P. Estimation and analysis of maize potential productivity based on CERES-Maize model in the North China Plain. Transactions of the CSAE, 2008, 24(4): 30-36. ( in Chinese)

[21] 吴绍洪, 靳京, 戴尔阜. 基于PS123作物生长模型的黑龙江海伦市玉米生产潜力计算. 农业工程学报, 2005, 21(8): 93-97.

Wu S H, Jin J, Dai E F. PS123 crop growth model based method to calculate potential maize productivity in Hailun, Heilongjiang. Transactions of the CSAE, 2005, 21(8):93-97.(in Chinese)

[22] 沈禹颖, 南志标, Bellotti B, Robertson M, 陈文, 邵新庆. APSIM模型的发展与应用. 中国应用生态学报, 2002, 13(8): 1027-1032.

Shen Y X, Nan Z B, Bellotti B, Robertson M, Chen W, Shao X Q. Development of APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) and its application. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2002, 13(8):1027-1032.( in Chinese)

[23] 刘志娟, 杨晓光, 王静, 吕硕, 王恩利. APSIM玉米模型在东北地区的适应性. 作物学报, 2012, 38(4):740-746.

Liu Z J, Yang X G, Wang J, Lv S, Wang E L. Adaptability of APSIM maize model in Northeast China. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 2012, 38(4):740-746. ( in Chinese)

[24] 张研, 钱春荣. 黑龙江省玉米单产水平现状与发展策略. 东北农业大学学报, 2010, 41(7): 155-160.

Zhang Y, Qian C R. Level status quo and development strategy of maize unit yield in Heilongjiang Province. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University, 2010, 41(7): 155-160. ( in Chinese)

[25] 殷世平, 刘丹, 郭立峰, 朱海霞. 基于决策树的黑龙江省旱耕地分类. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(1): 92-96.

Yin S P, Liu D, Guo L F, Zhu H X. Classification of dry cropland in Heilongjiang Province based on decision tree. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 20(1): 92-96. ( in Chinese)

[26] 马开玉, 丁裕国, 屠其璞, 么枕生. 气候统计原理与方法. 北京: 气象出版社, 1993:28-30.

Ma K Y, Ding Y G, Tu Q P. Me Z S. Climate Statistical Principle and Method. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1993:28-30. (in Chinese)

[27] 殷志强, 秦小光, 李长生. 东北三省主要农作物耗水量与缺水量研究. 科技导报, 2009, 27(13): 42-49.

Yin Z Q, Qin X G, Li C S. Study on water consumption and deficiency of main crops in Northeastern China. Science & Technology Review, 2009, 27(13): 42-49. (in Chinese)

[28] 李玉影, 刘双全, 刘颖, 张明怡, 姬景红, 韩光, 史俊琴. 黑龙江省松嫩平原与三江平原土壤养分含量与空间分布特征研究. 黑龙江农业科学, 2010 (2):25-28.

Li Y Y, Liu S Q, Liu Y, Zhang M Y, Ji J H, Han G, Shi J Q. Study on the status and distribution of soil nutrients in songnen and sanjiang plains in Heilongjiang Province. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2010(2): 25-28. ( in Chinese)

[29] 王群, 李潮海, 郝四平, 张永恩, 韩锦峰. 下层土壤容重对玉米生育后期光合特性和产量的影响. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(4): 787-793.

Wang Q, Li C H, Hao S P, Zhang Y E, Han J F. Effects of subsoil bulk density on late growth stage photosynthetic characteristics and grain yield of maize. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 19(4): 787-793. ( in Chinese)

[30] 李三爱, 居辉, 池宝亮. 作物生产潜力研究进展. 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(2):106-111.

Li S A, Ju H, Chi B L. Reviews on crop potential productivity researches. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2005, 26(2): 106-111. (in Chinese)

[31] 杨重一, 庞士力, 孙彦坤. 黑龙江省作物气候生产潜力估算. 东北农业大学学报, 2010, 41(3): 75-78.

Yang Z Y, Pang S L, Sun Y K. Calculation of crop climatic potential productivity in Heilongjiang Province. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University, 2010, 41(3): 75-78. (in Chinese)

[32] 王萍, 李廷全, 闫平, 姜丽霞, 石剑, 杨晓强. 近年黑龙江省春旱频繁发生的研究分析. 自然灾害学报, 2005, 14(3): 95-98.

Wang P, Li Y Q, Yan P, Jiang L X, Shi J, Yang X Q. Study on frequent occurrence of spring drought in Heilongjiang Province in recent years. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2005, 14(3): 95-98. ( in Chinese)

[33] 王振华, 张林. 黑龙江省松嫩平原中南部玉米生产限制因素及对策. 玉米科学, 2008, 16(5):147-149.

Wang Z H, Zhang L. Analysis on the limiting factors and countermeasures of maize production in Songnen champaign south-central in Heilongjiang Province. Journal of Maize Sciences, 2008, 16(5):147-149. (in Chinese)

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

451

HTML			PDF

Just accepted	Online first	Issue	Just accepted	Online first	Issue
0	0	0	0	0	451

Abstract

Cited

Shared