中国1950s到2000s玉米产量-密度关系的Meta分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.17.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】明确中国玉米产量-密度试验结果的共性规律，评价Meta分析方法在产量-密度关系研究中的作用。【方法】按照Meta分析原理，汇集中国1950s到2000s玉米产量-密度的文献结果，利用约1 500个产量-密度数据对，进行梯度、边界线和核密度等统计分析。【结果】最适密度的变异系数高达20.4%，相应产量的变异为33.65%，单株产量的变异为30.8%。密度和单株产量对产量的相对重要性因二者组合所处的区域而异，产量上界与密度关系符合Y＝-0.0134x3＋3.15x，对应密度区间为[0.99，15.0] plant/m2。产量上界与单株产量关系为两段直线，先沿Y1＝113.1x上升，然后沿Y2＝-69.84x＋33.87下降。以90%为累积频率，偏离最适密度15%的最大减产幅度为6.18%，偏离1 plant/m2的最大减产幅度为0.88 t•hm2。【结论】容易实现15 t•hm-2高产目标的单株产量在0.185 kg左右，密度区间为[7.0，9.7] plant/m2，最适密度的变异远小于对应产量和单株产量的变异。Meta分析能够从多方面剖析玉米产量-密度关系。

关键词: 玉米 , 最适密度 , Meta分析 , 梯度分析 , 核密度分析 , 边界线分析

Abstract: 【Objective】 The objective of the study is to reveal the general characteristics of yield-density relationships of maize plant density experiments in China, and to evaluate the suitability of meta-analysis as a tool to study maize yield response to plant density. 【Method】Based on requirements for meta-analysis, a collection of historical maize plant density experiments from 1950s to 2000s in China was built with some 1 500 pairs of plant densities and their crop yields. All eligible data sets were subject to statistical analysis such as gradients, boundary curves and 2-D kernel density. 【Result】Variation coefficient was 20.4% for optimum density, 33.65% for the highest yield and 30.8% for yield per plant under optimum density. Relative importance of yield components varied with combination zones of plant density and yield per plant. Upper boundary yields as a function of plant density followed the equation of Y＝-0.0134x3＋3.15x, within plant density range of [0.99, 15.0] plant/m2. Upper boundary yields as two stage functions of yield per plant were that increased along Y1＝113.1x, then declined along Y2＝-69.84x＋33.87 when yield per plant is larger than 0.185 kg. Plant density range within which there is the highest possibility for the yield of 15 mg?hm-2 fell in [7.0, 9.7] plant/m2. The 90th quantile for yield loss percentage was 6.18% due to 15% offset from the optimal plant density, and the 90th quantile due to 1 plant/m2 offset was 0.88 t?hm-2. 【Conclusion】Meta-analysis facilitates the distillation and abstraction of bulk data from maize yield-density experiments with multiple views, and it is applicable to other crop science areas.

Key words: maize , optimal density , meta-analysis , gradient analysis , 2-D kernel density , boundary curve

杨锦忠, 陈明利, 张洪生. 中国1950s到2000s玉米产量-密度关系的Meta分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2013, 46(17): 3562-3570.

YANG Jin-Zhong, CHEN Ming-Li, ZHANG Hong-Sheng. Meta-Analysis of the Relationship Between Maize Crop Yield and Plant Density from 1950s to 2000s in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2013, 46(17): 3562-3570.

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