中国农业科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (10): 1926-1941.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.10.006

• 作物遗传育种·种质资源·分子遗传学 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响 Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征

孙爽1,杨晓光1,赵锦1,陈阜2   

  1. 1 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
    2中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2014-07-28 出版日期:2015-05-16 发布日期:2015-05-16
  • 通讯作者: 杨晓光,E-mail:yangxg@cau.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:孙爽,E-mail:sunshuang@cau.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础发展研究计划(“973”计划)(2010CB951502)、国家“十二五”科技支撑计划(2012BAD20B04)

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅺ. The Variation of Potential Light-temperature Suitable Cultivation Zone of Winter Wheat in China Under Climate Change

SUN Shuang1, YANG Xiao-guang1, ZHAO Jin1, CHEN Fu2   

  1. 1College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
    2College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193
  • Received:2014-07-28 Online:2015-05-16 Published:2015-05-16

摘要: 【目的】气候变化背景下中国农业及粮食安全面临严峻挑战,而小麦是中国三大粮食作物之一,对保障中国粮食安全具有重要作用,研究气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区的变化特征,为冬小麦合理布局提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用逐级订正法计算中国冬小麦潜在种植区内各站点冬小麦逐年潜在光温产量,综合考虑高产性和稳产性指标,1981年为时间节点,将1961—2010年划分为两个时段,在分析1981—2010年(时段Ⅱ)较1961—1980年(时段Ⅰ)潜在光温产量高产性和稳产性变化特征的基础上,综合得到气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区界限的变化及潜在光温适宜种植区分布的变化特征。【结果】与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在光温产量的最高产区和高产区面积增加,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例分别增加了6.33%和7.42%,而次高产区和低产区面积减少,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例减少了10.50%和3.24%。时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在光温产量最稳产区面积下降,占研究区域冬小麦面积比例降低了25.76%,而稳产区、次稳产区和低稳产区面积增加,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例分别增加了12.09%、10.34%和3.31%。中国冬小麦潜在最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和可种植区界限在空间上都发生改变。其中,冬小麦潜在最适宜区界限发生了明显的北移西扩,潜在最适宜区南界由安徽省中部北移至山东省西北部,潜在最适宜区西界由山西省西南部西扩至陕西省西北部;冬小麦潜在适宜区界限向东北方向移动,最大移动距离在四川省东部-陕西省西南部,移动距离达835.63 km。冬小麦各等级潜在光温适宜种植区界限变化引起各区域冬小麦面积相应改变。与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ中国冬小麦潜在最适宜区和适宜区冬小麦面积下降,占研究区域冬小麦面积比例分别降低了4.49%和4.75%,而次适宜区和可种植区冬小麦面积增加,占研究区域冬小麦面积的比例分别增加了7.17%和2.06%。中国冬小麦各等级潜在光温适宜种植区的单产增加,平均提高513 kg·hm-2,但最适宜区和适宜区冬小麦面积减少,使得最适宜区和适宜区冬小麦的总产下降,与时段Ⅰ相比占总产的比例分别降低了29.4% (5 108×104 t)15.1% (5 896×104 t),从而使冬小麦种植区内冬小麦总产整体下降了1 504×104 t,与时段Ⅰ相比占总产的比例降低了2.07%。【结论】全球气候变暖背景下,中国冬小麦潜在光温产量最高产区和高产区面积增加,最稳产区面积减少,由于稳产性下降引起冬小麦最适宜区和适宜区面积缩小;中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区最适宜区界限北移西扩,适宜区界限向东北方向移动,适宜区界限的变动引起中国冬小麦各等级适宜种植区内的单产增加,有利于冬小麦产量的提高,但最适宜区和适宜区冬小麦面积减少,使中国冬小麦的总产整体下降。实际生产中,冬小麦潜在光温产量适宜性发生改变的区域,应注意结合当地的灌溉条件,以确保冬小麦稳产高产。

关键词: 气候变化, 中国, 冬小麦, 潜在光温适宜种植区

Abstract: 【Objective】 In the context of climate change, China needs to address critical challenges relating to the agricultural development and food security. Wheat is one of China's three major grain crops, which plays an important role in China’s food security. The variation of potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied, which would provide an important scientific reference for the rational distribution of winter wheat. 【Method】 In this research, the ‘correction step by step’ method was used to calculate the potential light-temperature yield of winter wheat in each year. The year 1981 was taken as a time node and divided the period 1961-2010 into two sub-periods. Combined with the indices of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability, the variation of the potential light-temperature yield level and the stability zones were investigated. In summary, the variation of the boundaries and distributions of the potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zones of winter wheat in China under climate change was studied. 【Result】 Compared with the period 1961-1980, during 1981-2010, the percentage of the very high and high potential yield zones in the study area increased by 6.33% and 7.42%, respectively, but the percentage of moderately high and marginally high potential yield zones decreased by 10.50% and 3.24%, respectively. During 1981 to 2010, the percentage of the very stable potential yield zone in the study area decreased by 25.76%, but the percentage of stable, moderately stable and marginally potential yield zones increased by 12.09%, 10.34% and 3.31%, respectively. The boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward and westward. The southern boundary of the very suitable zones moved northward from the central part of Anhui Province to the northwest portion of Shandong Province, and the western boundary of the very suitable zones extended westward from the southwest part of Shanxi Province to the northwest part of Shaanxi Province; The boundary of the suitable zones moved northeastward, and the maximum spatial displacement was in the eastern part of Sichuang Province to the southwest part of Shaanxi Province, moving by about 835.63 km. The spatial displacement of the potential suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat caused the changes of the winter wheat actual cropping area. Compared with the period 1961-1980, during 1981-2010, the percentage of the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat in the study area decreased by 4.49% and 4.75%, respectively, while the percentage of moderately suitable and marginally suitable zones increased by 7.17% and 2.06%, respectively. The potential yield per unit area increased by about 513 kg·hm-2 in average in each suitable cultivation zone. However, the total potential yield reduced by 1 504×104 t in the study area compared with 1961-1980 because of the reduction of the area in the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat, which caused the total potential yield in these two cultivation zones reduced by 5 108×104 t and 5 896×104 t, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Under the background of climate change, the percentage of the very high and high potential light-temperature yield zones of winter wheat increased, while the very stable potential light-temperature yield zone decreased. The very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat in the study area decreased because of the decrease of stable; the boundary of the very suitable zone moved northward and westward, and the boundary of the suitable zone moved northeastward. The potential light-temperature yield per unit area increased because of the spatial displacement of the potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone, which was beneficial to the improvement of the winter wheat yield. However, due to the reduction of the area in the very suitable and suitable zones of winter wheat, the total potential yield of winter wheat in China reduced. In the regions where the suitability of potential light-temperature yield has changed, the wheat production should be combined with the irrigation to ensure the high and stable yield.

Key words: climate change, China, winter wheat, potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone