Optimizing management strategies to enhance wheat productivity in the North China Plain under climate change

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.03.004

Journal of Integrative Agriculture

2025, Vol. 24

Issue (8): 2989-3003 DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2025.03.004

Special Focus: Innovative Pathways to Sustainable Wheat Production

Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search

Optimizing management strategies to enhance wheat productivity in the North China Plain under climate change

Baohua Liu^{1, 2}, Ganqiong Li², Yongen Zhang², Ling Zhang^{1, 3}, Dianjun Lu^{1, 4}, Peng Yan^{1, 5}, Shanchao Yue^{1, 6}, Gerrit Hoogenboom⁷, Qingfeng Meng^1#, Xinping Chen^{1, 8}

¹China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

²Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China

³Institute of Plant Nutrition, Resources and Environment, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China

⁴State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture/Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China

⁵Tea Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310008, China

⁶State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China

⁷Global Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA

⁸College of Resources and Environment, Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400044, China

Highlights

● Wheat yield potential averaged 10.8 t ha^–1 and was limited by pre-winter growing degree days (GDD) and seasonal solar radiation.
● Wheat yield potential may decline in the future due to climatic warming and solar dimming, but CO2 fertilization effects could offset these negative impacts.
● Adopting multiple management practices that account for complex climate–crop–soil interconnections can enhance wheat yields.

Abstract
References

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摘要

准确估算气候变化背景下小麦的产量潜力对于评估粮食生产能力至关重要。然而，基于不完全优化的田间试验校验的作物机理模型往往低估了小麦的产量潜力。本研究基于CERES-Wheat模型和管理良好的十年长期定位试验数据，定量评估了华北平原小麦的产量潜力，并明确了影响产量潜力及缩小产量差的关键限制因素。结果表明，近十年华北平原小麦的平均产量潜力为10.8 t/ha^-1，冬前积温（592）和生育季太阳辐射（3036 MJ/m²）不足是限制产量潜力的关键气候因素。在不考虑CO₂浓度升高的情况下，预计2040-2059年间，华北平原小麦的产量潜力在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下将分别下降1.8%和5.1%。然而，CO₂的施肥效应足以抵消气候变暖和太阳辐射下降的负面影响，最终使2040-2059年间小麦的产量潜力在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别提高7.5%和9.8%。此外，10月5日播种以及每平米400株的播种密度能最佳匹配华北平原的光热资源，最大化小麦的产量潜力；优化灌溉制度（3次，270 mm）和根层土壤氮素管理措施可以有效缩小产量差。本研究强调了基于气候-作物-土壤协同的综合管理策略对提高华北平原小麦产量潜力和缩小产量差的重要性。

Abstract

Accurately estimating the wheat yield potential under climate changes is essential for assessing food production capacity. However, studies based on crop modeling and imperfect management experiment data frequently underestimate the wheat yield potential. In this study, we evaluated wheat yield potential based on the CERES-Wheat model and a well-managed 10-year (2008–2017) field study in the North China Plain (NCP), and further identified the critical climate and management yield-limiting factors for improving wheat yield potential and closing the wheat yield gap. Our results revealed that wheat yield potential averaged 10.8 t ha^–1 in the recent decade. The low growing degree days (GDD) in the pre-winter growing season (592°C d) and solar radiation in the whole growth season (3,036 MJ m^–2) are the most critical climatic factors limiting wheat yield potential in the current production system. Nonetheless, wheat yield potential in the NCP is projected to decline during 2040–2059 by 1.8 and 5.1% under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, without considering the elevated CO₂ concentration. However, the positive influence of CO₂ fertilization will be sufficient to offset these negative impacts from climatic warming and solar dimming, ultimately leading to an enhancement in wheat yield potential during 2040–2059 by 7.5 and 9.8% compared to the baseline under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. To improve the wheat yield potential, we recommend selecting an appropriate planting date (5 October) and planting density (400 plants m^–2) that align with light and temperature conditions during the wheat growing season. In addition, optimizing the timing and rate of water application (three times, 270 mm) and fertilizer use (based on in-season root zone nitrogen management) is crucial for closing the wheat yield gap. This study underscores the importance of adopting multiple management practices that account for complex climate–crop–soil interconnections to enhance the wheat yield based on a long-term field experiment under the changing climate.

Keywords: CERES-wheat climate change field observation management strategy yield potential

Received: 24 October 2024 Online: 17 March 2025 Accepted: 14 February 2025

Fund:

This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFD2302801), the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (JBYW-AII-2024-38), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and China Scholarship Council.

About author: #Correspondence Qingfeng Meng, E-mail: mengqf@cau.edu.cn

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Baohua Liu, Ganqiong Li, Yongen Zhang, Ling Zhang, Dianjun Lu, Peng Yan, Shanchao Yue, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Qingfeng Meng, Xinping Chen. 2025. Optimizing management strategies to enhance wheat productivity in the North China Plain under climate change. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 24(8): 2989-3003.

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