Scientia Agricultura Sinica ›› 2012, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (12): 2544-2551.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.12.025

• RESEARCH NOTES • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Crop Insurance Premium Rating Based on Yield Simulation Models

 YE  Tao, NIE  Jian-Liang, WU  Bin-Xia, LI  Man, SHI  Pei-Jun   

  1. 1.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875
    2. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875
    3.北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院，北京 100875
  • Received:2011-09-30 Online:2012-06-15 Published:2011-11-10

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Abstract: In recent years, crop insurance in China grows rapidly, but it still lacks actuarial support. The yield simulation model is one of the most widely employed models used in crop insurance premium rating, and is tailored for multi-peril yield insurance lines. It will promote crop insurance rating research and practice in China to comprehensively introduce the model. This article summarized the major issues that induce uncertainty and problems in accuracy in the yield simulation model, and provided discussions on its future development on the basis of a comprehensive review. It was found that detrending and distribution fitting are the two major uncertain factors. The problem that has not been well solved by the model is the aggregation of spatially-correlated risks. It was suggested that detrending analysis should pay enough attention to information beyond the yield data and emphasize on trend verification. Empirical models used for distribution fitting should be crop and region specific. The most urgent development for the yield simulation model is incorporating spatial elements and developing integrated spatial-temporal yield simulation model to cope with spatial correlation of individual risks. All of these require further interdisciplinary efforts from geography, agriculture, disaster and risk, and actuary, etc., to improve the capability of classic yield simulation model. 

Key words: crop insurance, premium rating, yield simulation model

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