关键词: 粮食生产, 时空变化, 地貌分区, 耕地资源, 匹配性, 湖北省

Abstract:

【Objective】The matching relationship between grain production pattern and regional arable land resources in different geomorphologic zones was studied to provide decision-making basis for grain production distribution and arable land resources protection.【Method】Concentration index, coefficient of variation method, spatial center of gravity model, matching degree and LMDI model were used.【Result】From 1990 to 2020, the proportion of grain output of Western Mountains, Central Heights, Eastern Hills and Jianghan Plain in the total grain output of Hubei Province was gradually adjusted to 11.2%, 30.6%, 26.2% and 32.0%. There are significant differences in the concentration and changing trends of grain crop production with different geomorphological division in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2020. Grain production in Hubei Province has a clear tendency to concentrate in Central Heights, mainly wheat and corn, while soybean production is concentrated in Jianghan Plain. In the past 30 years, the barycenter of grains planting and the barycenter of grains production in Hubei Province have both shifted to the northwest, with a distance of 5.37 km and 14.63 km, respectively. However, the barycenter of grain production in the Central Heights moves to the northeast, while the Jianghan Plain and the Western Mountains move to the southwest. The average spatial distances between grains production and the barycenter of arable land resources in the Western Mountains, the Central Heights, the Eastern Hills and the Jianghan Plain of Hubei Province are 6.20 km, 3.35 km, 10.57 km and 6.82 km. And their average index of consistency of change are 0.49, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.27, respectively. The Gini coefficients of grain production and arable land resources in Hubei Province are all greater than 0.5 and tend to increase, while the imbalance indices of Western Mountains and Jianghan Plain are positive, and the imbalance indices of Central Heights and Eastern Hills are negative. The quantity effect and intensive effect of arable land for grain production change in the four geomorphological divisions in the last 30 years are negative, and the utilization effect and quality effect of arable land are positive, among which the decreasing effect of arable land planting structure change on grain production in the Eastern Hills reaches 3.097 million t, while the increasing effect of replanting index change on grain production in the Central Heights reaches 3.0046 million t.【Conclusion】In the past 30 years, the incremental effect of quality and structure of arable land in the geomorphological divisions of Hubei Province is weakening, and the decreasing effect of quantity is increasing. Grain production in Hubei faces the planting risk of decreasing quality cropland and the yield risk of grain planting structure adjustment. Grain production and arable land resources have long been mismatched in the geomorphological divisions of Hubei Province and show obvious regional characteristics. The spatial layout of grain production and the adjustment of planting structure should fully consider the natural geography and arable land resource endowment characteristics of different geomorphological divisions to promote the coordinated development of food production and arable land use.

Key words: grain production, spatial-temporal variation, geomorphological divisions, arable land resources, matching, Hubei Province