关键词: 农业经济增长, 农业碳排放, Kernel密度估计, 协整, 湖北省

Abstract:

【Objective】Hubei Province is a large agricultural province, and the carbon emissions from agricultural production account for a large proportion of the total carbon emissions. Environmental problems such as greenhouse effect caused by carbon emission and non-point source pollution caused by agricultural production cannot be ignored. In this study, the co-integration relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed, and the error correction was carried out, which provided an important theoretical basis and reference for the development of carbon emission reduction in Hubei Province. 【Method】Based on six kinds of main carbon sources from the agricultural inputting and production, the agricultural carbon emission load from 1993 to 2017 was calculated, and then the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province were analyzed. Furtherly, Kernel density estimation demonstrated that the regional gap of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei province. Finally, the integrated use of co-order error correction model was discussed as an evidence of Hubei Province's agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions. 【Result】The total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province showed a trend of rising first and then later. The average annual growth rate of agriculture carbon emissions was 2.32%, while the average annual growth rate of intensity was 2.21%. The chain growth of which was general in the stage of decline. Fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural diesel, real tillage and agricultural irrigation as a result of carbon emissions, average annual increase rate was 2.23%, 2.44%, 2.40%, 3.32%, 0.44%, and 2.32%, respectively. Kernel density estimation demonstrated that the regional gap of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province was widening. The integrated use of co-order error correction model was discussed as an evidence of Hubei Province's agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that: for every 1% increase in per capita agricultural output value, the total carbon intensity of pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural diesel, agricultural irrigation and other carbon sources of carbon emission intensity increased by 0.58%, 0.59%, 0.25% and 0.15%, respectively, and the total agricultural carbon intensity increased by 0.19%.【Conclusion】Different agricultural economic development, production conditions and regional development strategies in Hubei Province led to more and more obvious agricultural carbon emission gap between regions. There was a long-term stable relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province, which indicated that Hubei Province was also in a critical period of transition from traditional farming mode to green and low-carbon farming mode, and this development mode had existed for a long time.

Key words: economic growth, agricultural carbon emissions, Kernel density estimation, cointegration, Hubei Province