湖北省农业碳排放效率时空差异及影响因素

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.24.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】传统农业大省湖北省对化肥、农药等农用物资的依赖度过高,客观上导致其农业生产相对高碳。本研究目的在于厘清其农业碳排放效率及影响因素,为湖北省农业低碳生产的切实推进提供参考依据与政策启示。【方法】利用DEA-Malmquist分解法对湖北省农业碳排放效率进行有效测度并分析其时空差异特征;在此基础上运用Tobit模型探究影响其碳排放效率变化的关键因素。【结果】2011年以来湖北省农业碳排放效率虽年际间存在一定波动,但总体处于增长态势,年平均增速为2.9%;从驱动源泉来看其提升主要依赖于前沿技术进步而非技术效率改善,进一步对技术效率分解可知,纯技术效率恶化趋势较为明显而规模效率得到了轻微改善。湖北省各市（州）农业碳排放效率差异明显,其中以武汉最高,达到了1.584,而荆门最低,仅为0.803;结合数值差异可将15个地区划分为高速增长、低速增长以及下降等3个不同组别;前沿技术进步在推进各地区农业碳排放效率提升上发挥了更为明显的作用,而技术效率改善所起作用相对较小,分解技术效率可知,纯技术效率与规模效率的作用方向因地而异,但后者作用力度要略大于前者。农村经济发展水平、城镇化水平、农村用电量均对湖北省农业碳排放效率产生了显著的正向影响,即在其他条件维持不变的前提下,农民人均纯收入越高、或者城镇化水平越高、或者农村用电量越大,农业碳排放效率越高;而农业产业结构所处情形正好相反,具体表现为,种植业产值比重越高越不利于农业碳排放效率的提升。【结论】湖北省农业碳排放效率总体处于上升态势,但伴随着年际波动各市（州）碳排放效率存在较大差异,无论是湖北省还是各市（州）其农业碳排放效率的提升都更多地依赖于前沿技术进步而非技术效率的改善,这也要求我们在推进湖北农业低碳生产过程中不仅要注重新技术的研发,更需强化对各类技术的合理运用。考虑到农村经济发展、城镇化水平、农村用电量以及农业产业结构均对农业碳排放效率产生了显著影响的现实境况,实践中可以通过繁荣农村经济发展、提升城镇化水平、保障农村用电需求、优化农业产业结构、完善法制建设与制度保障等手段来切实确保农业碳排放效率得到提高。

关键词: 农业碳排放, 碳排放效率, 时空差异, 影响因素, 湖北省

Abstract:

【Objective】As a traditional agricultural province, Hubei Province has a heavy dependence on agricultural inputs such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides, which has objectively led to its relatively high carbon emissions in the agricultural production. Clarifying its agricultural carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors could provide necessary references and policy implications for the practical promotion of agricultural low-carbon production in Hubei Province. 【Method】The DEA-Malmquist decomposition method was employed to effectively measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hubei Province, and its temporal and spatial characteristics were analyzed. On this basis, Tobit model was adopted to explore the key factors affecting the change of its carbon emission efficiency. 【Result】Since 2011, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hubei has been overall increasing but with certain interannual fluctuations, and the average annual growth rate was 2.9%. From the perspective of driving sources, its enhancement mainly depended on the progress of frontier technology rather than technical efficiency improvement. Further decomposition of technical efficiency showed that the pure technical efficiency had an obvious trend of deterioration, while the scale efficiency has been slightly improved. There were apparent differences in agricultural carbon emission efficiency among cities and prefectures in Hubei Province, among which Wuhan had the highest of 1.584 while Jingmen has the lowest of 0.803. Among to numerical differences, 15 regions could be divided into three different groups: high-speed growth, low-speed growth and decline. Frontier technological progress played a more obvious role in promoting the agricultural carbon emission efficiency for all regions, while the improvement of technical efficiency played a relatively small role. By decomposing the technical efficiency, it could be found that the influencing direction of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency varied by regions, but the latter had a slightly greater effect than the former. Rural economic development level, urbanization level and rural electricity consumption had a significant and positive impact on agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hubei Province, that is, under the premise that other conditions remained unchanged, the higher farmers’ net income per capita, the higher the urbanization level, or the greater the rural electricity consumption, the higher the agricultural carbon emission efficiency. However, the situation of agricultural industrial structure was exactly the opposite. Specifically, the higher proportion of the output value of planting industry was not conducive to the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency. 【Conclusion】The agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hubei Province was generally on the rise but with interannual fluctuations, and there were great differences among cities and prefectures. Whether it was Hubei Province or cities and prefectures, the enhancement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency depended more on frontier technological progress than technical efficiency improvement, which also required us not only to pay attention to the research and development of new technologies but to strengthen the rational use of various technologies in the process of promoting agricultural low-carbon production in Hubei Province. Considering the realistic situation that rural economic development, urbanization level, rural electricity consumption and agricultural industrial structure all had a significant impact on agricultural carbon emission efficiency, in practice, the enhancement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency could be effectively ensured by means of prospering rural economic development, improving urbanization level, ensuring rural electricity demand, optimizing agricultural industrial structure, improving the legal system construction and institutional support, etc.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, carbon emission efficiency, temporal and spatial differences, influencing factors, Hubei Province

田云,王梦晨. 湖北省农业碳排放效率时空差异及影响因素[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(24): 5063-5072.

TIAN Yun,WANG MengChen. Research on Spatial and Temporal Difference of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in Hubei Province[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(24): 5063-5072.

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指标 Indicators		变量 Variable	单位 Unit	极小值 Minimum	极大值 Max	均值 Mean	标准差 St. deviation
产出指标 Output indicator	期望产出 Expected output	农业总产值 Gross agricultural output value	×10⁸ yuan	31.86	352.19	141.75	83.32
产出指标 Output indicator	非期望产出 Unexpected output	农业碳排放量 Agricultural carbon emissions	×10⁴t	25.55	212.07	98.19	60.10
投入指标Input index		劳动力Labor force	×10⁴	7.81	134.35	62.09	34.82
		土地Land	khm²	70.22	470.34	225.3	120.87
		农用机械Agricultural machinery	×10⁴kW	72.34	646.07	264.65	149.90
		灌溉Irrigation	khm²	30.38	423.26	151.1	101.23
		役畜Beast of burden	×10⁴	0.31	108.19	29.05	30.31

年份 Year	前沿技术进步 CTECH		技术效率 CEFF		纯技术效率 CPECH		规模效率 CSECH		综合效率 CTFP
年份 Year	年际值 Interannual	累计值 Cumulative	年际值 Interannual	累计值 Cumulative	年际值 Interannual	累计值 Cumulative	年际值 Interannual	累计值 Cumulative	年际值 Interannual	累计值 Cumulative
2011	1.024	1.024	0.974	0.974	0.991	0.991	0.983	0.983	0.998	0.998
2012	1.007	1.031	0.951	0.926	0.944	0.936	1.008	0.991	0.958	0.956
2013	1.220	1.258	0.875	0.809	0.954	0.892	0.917	0.909	1.067	1.020
2014	1.070	1.339	0.989	0.791	1.016	0.903	0.974	0.884	1.059	1.083
2015	1.133	1.497	1.165	0.919	1.062	0.961	1.097	0.968	1.320	1.428
2016	0.769	1.118	1.070	1.021	1.030	0.996	1.039	1.017	0.822	1.152
2017	1.047	1.280	0.953	0.976	0.926	0.923	1.029	1.048	0.998	1.222
平均Average	1.036	–	0.997	–	0.989	–	1.007	–	1.029	–

地区 Region	前沿技术进步 CTECH	技术效率 CEFF	纯技术效率 CPECH	规模效率 CSECH	综合效率 CTFP	排名 Rank	增长类型 Growth type
武汉Wuhan	1.398	1.133	1.000	1.133	1.584	1	高速High speed
黄石Huangshi	1.012	0.984	0.987	0.996	0.995	9	下降Decline
十堰Shiyan	0.827	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.827	14	下降Decline
宜昌Yichang	1.191	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.191	2	高速High speed
襄阳Xiangyang	1.007	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.007	7	低速Low speed
荆门Jingmen	0.803	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.803	15	下降Decline
孝感Xiaogan	1.068	1.043	1.017	1.025	1.113	3	高速High speed
荆州Jingzhou	0.977	1.004	1.000	1.004	0.982	11	下降Decline
黄冈Huanggang	1.051	0.989	1.000	0.989	1.040	5	低速Low speed
咸宁Xianning	1.036	0.946	0.947	0.999	0.979	12	下降Decline
随州Suizhou	1.106	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.106	4	高速High speed
恩施Enshi	1.014	0.880	0.886	0.994	0.893	13	下降Decline
仙桃Xiantao	1.027	0.979	0.998	0.981	1.006	8	低速Low speed
潜江Qianjiang	1.008	0.978	0.994	0.984	0.986	10	下降Decline
天门Tianmen	1.043	0.980	0.995	0.985	1.022	6	低速Low speed

变量Variable	系数Coefficient	标准差St. deviation	检验值Inspection value
农村经济发展水平Rural economic development level	0.0078^**	0.7270	2.43
耕地规模Cultivated land scale	-0.0484	0.1016	-0.48
农业产业结构Agricultural industrial structure	-0.7449^**	0.3618	-2.06
城镇化水平Urbanization level	0.0136^***	0.1681	3.15
农村用电量Rural electricity consumption	0.0025^*	0.4502	1.32
常数项Constant term	1.3705^***	0.2778	4.94