中国双季稻种植区的气候适宜性研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.02.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】从国家层次和年尺度阐明影响中国双季稻种植分布的主导气候因子，揭示中国双季稻种植分布及其气候适宜性，可为优化双季稻生产布局、改进种植制度和确保粮食生产安全提供科学依据。【方法】从中国区域和年尺度选取影响中国水稻种植分布的潜在气候因子，利用双季稻的地理分布信息及其对应的气候资料，结合最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件的空间分析功能，阐明影响中国双季稻种植分布的主导气候因子并构建中国双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型。【结果】影响中国双季稻种植分布的主导气候因子有：年降水量、最暖月平均气温和稳定通过18℃持续日数，它们对双季稻种植分布的累积贡献率达潜在气候因子的99.1%；基于主导气候因子和最大熵模型构建的中国双季稻种植分布与气候的关系模型能够很好地模拟中国双季稻种植区分布；中国适宜种植双季稻的国土面积达174万km2，远大于目前种植面积；根据待预测区双季稻的存在概率给出了中国双季稻种植区的气候适宜性分区，并分析了各气候适宜区的主导气候因子特征。【结论】利用最大熵模型构建的中国双季稻分布与气候的关系模型揭示了中国双季稻种植区的潜在分布及其气候适宜性，从气候适宜性角度来说，中国双季稻种植面积还有很大的扩展潜力。

关键词: 双季稻, 潜在分布, 气候适宜性, 主导气候因子, 最大熵模型

Abstract: 【Objective】 The objectives of this study are to clarify major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China based on national and annual scales, and to give the distribution of double rice planting regions and their climate suitability divisions, in order to provide a scientific basis for optimizing double rice allocation of production, modifying cropping pattern and ensuring food security. 【Method】 In terms of potential climate factors selected from the related literatures based on national and annual scales, double rice geographic information from national agrometeorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS software, major climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China were clarified, and the relationship between the distribution of double rice planting regions and climate were discussed. 【Result】 The results show that annual precipitation (P), mean temperature of the warmest month (TW) and days of not less than 18℃ stably (N18) are dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of double rice planting regions in China, contributing 99.1% of all the potential climate factors. The distribution of double rice planting regions in China is simulated well in terms of the maximum entropy model and the selected dominant climate factors. The suitable land area for planting double rice in China is 1.74 million km2, and it is more than the practical cultivated area (60 105 km2). Furthermore, the climatic suitability divisions of double rice planting regions in China are given based on its appearance frequency. The climate characteristics of double rice in each climatic suitability region are analysed, respectively.【Conclusion】The relationship between the distribution of double rice planting regions and climate based on the maximum entropy model is able to reveal the distribution of double rice planting regions and its climatic suitability divisions in China. The results indicate that double rice could be largely developed in China due to its huge climate suitable planting regions. The results can provide reference for double rice planting pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change in China.

Key words: double rice, potential distribution, climatic suitability, dominant climate factors, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)

段居琦, 周广胜. 中国双季稻种植区的气候适宜性研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(2): 218-227.

DUAN Ju-Qi, ZHOU Guang-Sheng. Climatic Suitability of Double Rice Planting Regions in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(2): 218-227.

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