Please wait a minute...
Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2020, Vol. 19 Issue (4): 1149-1158    DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(19)62832-7
Special Issue: 农业经济与管理合辑Agricultural Economics and Management
Agricultural Economics and Management Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
China’s alfalfa market and imports: Development, trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations
Qingbin WANG1, ZOU Yang2 
1 Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
2 School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, P.R.China
Download:  PDF in ScienceDirect  
Export:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
Abstract  
This study examines the development and trends of China’s alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China’s alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations.  China’s rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons (mmt) in 2018.  While the United States dominated China’s alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018.  China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations.  China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports. 
 
Keywords:  China’s alfalfa imports        U.S. alfalfa exports        dairy industrialization        U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations        GM-free standards  
Received: 10 January 2019   Accepted:
Fund: The authors would like to thank the Vermont Agricultural Experiment Station at the University Vermont, USA, and the National Social Science Fund of China (17ZDA067) for financial support of this project.
Corresponding Authors:  Correspondence ZOU Yang, Tel/Fax: +86-22-23501401, E-mail: yzou33@nankai.edu.cn    
About author:  Qingbin WANG, E-mail: qwang@uvm.edu;

Cite this article: 

Qingbin WANG, ZOU Yang. 2020. China’s alfalfa market and imports: Development, trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.–China trade dispute and retaliations. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 19(4): 1149-1158.

Countryman A M, Muhammad A. 2018. Chinese trade retaliation may diminish U.S. wine export potential. Choices, 33, doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.273334
Fajgelbaum P D, Goldberg P K, Kennedy P J, Khandelwal A K. 2019. The return to protectionism. University of California at Los Angles (UCLA). [2019-05-28]. https://www.econ.ucla.edu/pfajgelbaum/RTP.pdf
Gale F, Hansen J, Jewison M. 2015. China’s growing demand for agricultural imports. EIB-136, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. [2018-09-25]. https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/43939/eib-136.pdf?v=0
General Administration of Customs of China. 2019. China Custom Database. www.customs.gov.cn
Hansen J, Marchant M A, Zhang W, Grant J. 2018. Upheaval in China’s imports of U.S. sorghum. Choices, 33,  [2019-05-15]. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/upheaval-in-chinas-imports-of-us-sorghum
Holstein Farmer. 2018. China imported 1.4 million metric tons of alfalfa hay and the increase was less than 1%. [2018-09-20]. http://www.hesitan.com/nnyw_xjxm/2018-02-01/226167.chtml (in Chinese)
Holstein Farmer. 2019. Alfalfa imports: 112,200 tons in January and dropped 14.8% from January 2018. [2019-03-20]. http://www.dairyfarmer.com.cn/nnyw_xjxm/2019-03-07/285761.chtml (in Chinese)
Jiang Y Z, Zhang J B, Nan Z B, Wang L J. 2016. Competitiveness analysis of alfalfa international trade in China. Pratacultural Science, 33, 322–329. (in Chinese)
Li M, Balistreri E J, Zhang W. 2018a. The 2018 Trade War: Data and Nascent General Equilibrium Analysis. Working Paper 18-Wp 587. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.
Li M, Zhang W, Hart C. 2018b. What have we learned from China’s past trade retaliation strategies? Choices, 33, doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.272165
Liu Y, Robinson J R C, Shurley W D. 2018. China’s potential cotton tariffs and U.S. cotton exports: Lessons from history. Choices, 33, [2019-8-15]. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/chinas-potential-cotton-tariffs-and-us-cotton-exports-lessons-from-history
Marchant M A, Wang H H. 2018. Theme overview: U.S.–China trade dispute and potential impacts on agriculture. Choices, 33, [2019-8-15]. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/theme-overview-uschina-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-on-agriculture
Ministry of Agriculture of China. 2017. National Alfalfa Industry Development Plan 2016–2020. [2018-05-20]. https://www.tuliu.com/read-50338-2.html (in Chinese)
National Livestock Station, Ministry of Agriculture of China. 2009–2017. China Pratacultural Statistics. China Agriculture Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
Office of Dairy Management, Ministry of Agriculture of China. 2003–2017. China Dairy Data Report. China Dairy Association, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
Progressive Forage. 2019. 2018 U.S. forage statistics. [2019-05-20]. https://www.progressivepublish.com/downloads/2019/general/2018-pf-stats-highres.pdf
Putnam D, Matthews W A, Sumner D A. 2016. Dynamic hay export growth led by China. Paper presented at the 2016 California Alfalfa and Forage Symposium, November 28 – December 1, Reno, Nevada, U.S.A. [2018-05-25]. http://aic.ucdavis.edu/publications/2016ExportSymposiumPUTNAMfinal.pdf
Rankin M. 2018. Hay exports hit record high. Hay & Forage Grower. [2019-05-20]. https://www.hayandforage.com/article-1791-Hay-exports-hit-record-high.html
Taheripour F, Tyner W E. 2018. Impacts of possible Chinese 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans and other agricultural commodities. Choices, 33, doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.273330
USDA FAS (United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service). 2017a. China: U.S. alfalfa hay exports to China climb. [2018-10-15]. https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-us-alfalfa-hay-exports-china-climb
USDA FAS (United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service). 2017b. Spain: Fodder demand in the middle east drives Spanish alfalfa area growth. [2019-05-28]. https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/spain-fodder-demand-middle-east-drives-spanish-alfalfa-area-growth
USDA FAS (United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service). 2018a. China responds to U.S. 301 Announcement with revised product list. GAIN Report Number CH 18034. [2018-10-12]. https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/China%20Responds%20to%20U.S.%20301%20Announcement%20with%20Revised%20Product%20List%20_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_6-21-2018.pdf
USDA FAS (United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service). 2018b. Spain: Spanish fodder continues to seek new export markets. [2019-05-28]. https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/spain-spanish-fodder-continues-seek-new-export-markets
Wang Q, Parsons R, Zhang G. 2010. China’s dairy market: Trends, disparities, and implications for trade. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2, 356–371.
Wang S. 2018. How should the alfalfa import market deal with the increase in tariff? [2018-10-17]. http://www.xumurc.com/main/ShowNews_61601.html (in Chinese)
Wang W J, Wang M L, Lyu G W, Liu Y F, Shi Z Z. 2016. Trend, lessons and enlightenment of the alfalfa trade in the United States. Pratacultural Science, 3, 527–534. (in Chinese)
Woodward W T W. 2017. Issues with GMO alfalfa in the marketplace. Washington State University, Pasco, Washington. [2018-09-25]. http://wa-hay.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GMOAlfalfaMarketplace.pdf
Zheng Y, Wood D, Wang H H, Jones J P H. 2018. Predicting potential impacts of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. farm sector. Choices, 33, doi: 10.22004/ag.econ.273329
No related articles found!
No Suggested Reading articles found!