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Special Issue:
农业经济与管理合辑Agricultural Economics and Management
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| African swine fever and meat prices fluctuation: An empirical study in China based on TVP-VAR model |
LI Hui-shang1, HU Chen-pei2, LÜ Zheng3, LI Mei-qi1, GUO Xin-zhu1 |
1 Agricultural Information Institute/Key Laboratory of Big Agri-Data of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2 International Statistical Information Center, National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing 100826, P.R.China
3 School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, P.R.China |
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摘要
自2018年8月非洲猪瘟在中国爆发以来，在信息快速传播的时代受到全社会的广泛关注。非洲猪瘟的发生发展导致猪肉等主要肉类市场供需失衡，肉类价格大幅剧烈波动。为了分析非洲猪瘟对猪肉等肉类价格的影响，本文采用网络爬虫方法构建了基于互联网非洲猪瘟关注度指数作为非洲猪瘟疫情的代理变量，运用时变参数向量自回归模型 (TVP-VAR) 分析了非洲猪瘟与肉类价格的动态关系。研究发现，非洲猪瘟对猪肉、鸡肉、牛羊肉价格的影响程度、方向和时滞上存在差异，且影响效应有显著的时变特征；同时，非洲猪瘟对肉类价格的影响程度与非洲猪瘟的发展趋势和程度并不一致，脉冲强度与非洲猪瘟的强度和持续时间强相关且脉冲强度在早期普遍较弱，中后期显著增强。未来应加强对非猪瘟的宏观调控，强化市场监测预警，规范生产流通和舆论监测引导，以期而稳定肉类市场预期，促进畜禽市场平稳运行。
Abstract frican swine fever (ASF), a fatal disease outbroken in China in August 2018, has widely attracted social concern especially in the information era. The occurrence of ASF led to an imbalance between supply and demand in pork and other meat markets. As a result, meat prices fluctuated greatly during the past year in 2019. To measure ASF quantitatively, the internet public concern index about ASF was created using web crawler methods. The relationships between ASF and meat prices were analyzed based on time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model. The results showed that there were some differences in the impact size, direction and duration of ASF on the prices of pork, chicken, beef and mutton, and the characteristics of time variability and heterogeneity were obvious. At the same time, the impact of ASF on meat prices is not consistent with the trend and degree of ASF. The impulse intensity is strongly correlated with the strength and duration of ASF, and it is generally weak in the early stage and much stronger in the middle and late periods. The results indicate that macro regulations, monitoring and early-warning system, standardizing production and circulation, and the public opinion monitoring and guidance about ASF should be given more attention in future to stabilize the market expectations and to promote a smooth functioning of the livestock markets.
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Received: 05 March 2020
Accepted:
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| Fund: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72073131), the Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund, China (2020JKY025) and the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII). |
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Corresponding Authors:
Correspondence HU Chen-pei, Fax: +86-10-68783928, E-mail: zafuhcp@126.com
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| About author: LI Hui-shang, E-mail: lihuishang@caas.cn; |
Cite this article:
LI Hui-shang, HU Chen-pei, LÜ Zheng, LI Mei-qi, GUO Xin-zhu.
2021.
African swine fever and meat prices fluctuation: An empirical study in China based on TVP-VAR model. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20(8): 2289-2301.
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