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Journal of Integrative Agriculture
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Rural household aging, farmers' property rights cognition and migration intentions

Tao Xu1*, Yufeng Ren1*, Bo Dong1, Guangcheng Wei2, Yuting Wang1, Zhemin Li1,3#, Xinru Han2,4,5#

1 Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

2 Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

3 Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

4 Center for Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

5 Chinese Institute of Agricultural Development Strategies, Beijing 100081, China

Highlights

l Rural household aging increases the intention to remain in the village while reducing partial household migration intention.

l Household aging reshapes within-household migration arrangements rather than full-household migration intention.

l Property rights cognition shows no uniform moderating effect, but its role varies sharply across village policy environments.

l Collective ownership cognition eases aging-related migration constraints in policy-designated villages but reinforces the intention to remain in the village elsewhere.

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摘要  

中国农村人口转型加速推进,家庭人口结构变化正在重塑农村人口迁移模式。基于2023年中国农村宅基地调查数据,本文运用多项Logit模型,考察农村家庭老龄化对家庭迁移意愿的影响及农户产权认知的调节作用。研究发现:第一,农村家庭老龄化显著提高家庭留村意愿,降低部分家庭成员迁移意愿,但对全体家庭成员共同迁移意愿的影响不显著,表明家庭老龄化主要改变家庭内部迁移安排。第二,产权认知在全样本中的调节效应不显著,其作用具有明显的情境依赖性。在政策资源较为充足、制度解释相对清晰的村庄,农户对宅基地集体所有权的认知能够缓解家庭老龄化对部分成员迁移意愿的抑制作用;而在政策支持相对不足的村庄,该认知反而进一步强化家庭留村意愿。本文从家庭人口结构与产权认知互动的视角,为理解结构转型背景下农村人口老龄化、产权制度与家庭迁移决策之间的关系提供了经验证据。研究表明,应统筹完善农村养老服务、产权制度解释与权利保障机制,为农村家庭有序迁移创造更为稳定的制度条件。



Abstract  

Rural China's accelerating demographic transition is reshaping rural household migration patterns and socioeconomic development trajectories. Based on data from the 2023 China Rural Homestead Survey, a multinomial logit model is constructed to examine the effect of rural household aging on migration intention and the moderating role of farmers’ property rights cognition. The results show that rural household aging significantly strengthens households’ willingness to remain in their village and reduces the willingness of some household members to migrate, whereas its effect on the intention of all household members to migrate together is not significant. Further analysis reveals that the moderating effect of property rights cognition is not significant in the full sample, but heterogeneity analysis indicates marked conditional features. In villages with relatively abundant policy resources and clearer institutional interpretation, farmers' cognition of collective property rights can alleviate the inhibitory effect of aging on partial migration intention. In contrast, in villages with insufficient policy support, farmers' cognition of collective property rights strengthens their willingness to remain in their village. These findings provide empirical evidence from China for understanding the interactions among population aging, rural property rights institutions, and household migration intention in economies undergoing structural transformation. They also offer policy implications for jointly advancing the provision of rural elderly care, the construction of land rights institutions, and the orderly migration of rural households.

Keywords:  rural-urban mobility       elderly care burden       split-household arrangement       collective ownership       homestead tenure security  
Online: 03 September 2026  
Fund: 

This research was funded by the Youth Program of the National Social Science Fund of China (22CGL044), the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (10-IAED-RC-13-2024, 10-IAED-ZX-1-2024, 10-IAED-05-2025, and CAAS-ASTIP-2025-AII), and the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Government-level Public Welfare Research Institutes (JBYW-AII-2024-13;JBYW-AII-2025-07).

About author:  Tao Xu, E-mail: 821012430544@caas.cn; Yufeng Ren, E-mail: renyufeng@caas.cn; #Correspondence Zhemin Li, E-mail: lizhemin@caas.cn; Xinru Han, E-mail: hanxinru@caas.cn *These authors contributed equally to this study.

Cite this article: 

Tao Xu, Yufeng Ren, Bo Dong, Guangcheng Wei, Yuting Wang, Zhemin Li, Xinru Han. 2026. Rural household aging, farmers' property rights cognition and migration intentions. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, Doi:10.1016/j.jia.2026.09.012

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