Research on grain supply and demand matching in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region based on ecosystem service flows

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.04.024

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Jiaxin Miao¹, Peipei Pan^1#, Bingyu Liu¹, XiaowenYuan¹, Zijun Pan², Linsi Li¹, Xinyun Wang³, Yuan Wang¹, Yongqiang Cao⁴, Tianyuan Zhang¹

¹School of Geographic Sciences, Hebei Normal University/Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Hebei Normal University/Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China

²School of Geographic Sciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China

³School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China

⁴Academy of Eco-civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China

Highlights

l A significant mismatch exists between grain supply and demand, and it shows a scale effect.

l Grain flows exhibited an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020, radiating from central and southern regions to peripheral areas.

l Grain flows effectively reduce the number of grain-deficit areas compared to scenarios without grain flows.

Abstract
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摘要

对粮食供需和生态系统服务流的全面评估对于确定粮食流动路径、确保区域粮食安全和指导可持续发展管理战略至关重要。然而，目前的研究主要集中在短期的粮食供应服务上，忽略了不同尺度粮食流动的时空变化，制约了粮食供需动态匹配关系识别和优化策略的制定。本研究基于1980-2020年京津冀（BTH）地区不同尺度粮食供应服务供需的时空演变特征，引入增强型两步移动搜索法（E2SFCA），量化了粮食供应生态系统服务流，分析了不同流动情景下供需匹配的变化，并探讨了粮食流动的最优距离阈值。结果表明，粮食产量呈东南高-西北低的空间分布格局，供需错配显著且具有尺度效应，赤字区主要集中在京津冀地区的西北部，盈余区则主要集中在中南部地区。随着空间尺度的增大，生态系统服务供需比（SDR）分类越聚集，尺度越小SDR空间异质性越明显。本研究分别基于100公里和200公里距离阈值，考察了粮食供应生态系统服务流的两种不同情景，研究期内流量显著增长，情景一从2.170×10⁶吨增至1.181×10⁷吨，情景二从2.41×10⁶吨增至1.237×10⁷吨，并形成了从中部及南部地区向四周流动的空间格局。其中，大额流动集中在市内，市域间高额流出量多发生在保定市、石家庄市、邢台市以及衡水市。在县尺度内，两种情景粮食流量后的供需匹配格局较为相似，值得注意的是，与无粮食流动的情况相比，纳入粮食流显著减少了赤字区的数量，2020年，两种情景下粮食赤字县个数分别下降28.79%与37.88%，赤字城市分别下降12.50%与25.0%。此外，两种流动情景下，县尺度实现最优供需匹配的距离阈值均大于城市尺度。本研究为了解粮食匹配动态关系和异质性模式提供了有价值的见解，拓展了不同时空尺度粮食与生态系统服务流动的研究视角。

Abstract

A comprehensive assessment of grain supply, demand, and ecosystem service flows is essential for identifying grain movement pathways, ensuring regional grain security, and guiding sustainable management strategies. However, current studies primarily focus on short-term grain provision services while neglecting the spatiotemporal variations in grain flows across different scales. This gap limits the identification of dynamic matching relationships and the formulation of optimization strategies for balancing grain flows. This study examined the spatiotemporal evolution of grain supply and demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 1980 to 2020. Using the Enhanced Two-Step Floating Catchment Area method, the grain provision ecosystem service flows were quantified, the changes in supply–demand matching under different flow scenarios were analyzed and the optimal distance threshold for grain flows was investigated. The results revealed that grain production follows a spatial distribution pattern characterized by high levels in the southeast and low levels in the northwest. A significant mismatch exists between supply and demand, and it shows a scale effect. Deficit areas are mainly concentrated in the northwest, while surplus areas are mainly located in the central and southern regions. As the spatial scale increases, the ecosystem service supply–demand ratio (SDR) classification becomes more clustered, while it exhibits greater spatial SDR heterogeneity at smaller scales. This study examined two distinct scenarios of grain provision ecosystem service flow dynamics based on 100 km and 200 km distance thresholds. The flow increased significantly, from 2.17 to 11.81 million tons in the first scenario and from 2.41 to 12.37 million tons in the second scenario over nearly 40 years, forming a spatial movement pattern from the central and southern regions to the surrounding areas. Large flows were mainly concentrated in the interior of urban centers, with significant outflows between cities such as Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, and Hengshui. At the county scale, supply–demand matching patterns remained consistent between the grain flows in the two scenarios. Notably, incorporating grain flow dynamics significantly reduced the number of grain-deficit areas compared to scenarios without grain flow. In 2020, grain-deficit counties decreased by 28.79% and 37.88%, and cities by 12.50% and 25.0% under the two scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, the distance threshold for achieving optimal supply and demand matching at the county scale was longer than at the city scale in both flow scenarios. This study provides valuable insights into the dynamic relationships and heterogeneous patterns of grain matching, and expands the research perspective on grain and ecosystem service flows across various spatiotemporal scales.

Keywords: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region grain provision ecosystem service grain flow supply and demand match distance threshold

Online: 18 April 2025

Fund:

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42471336, 52379021 and 42201278), the Hebei Province Backbone Talent Program, China (Returnee Platform for Overseas Study) (A20240028), the Hebei Province Statistical Science Research Project, China (2024HZ04), the Hebei Province Graduate Education and Teaching Reform Research Project, China (YJG2024046), and the Innovation Ability Training Program for Postgraduate Students of Hebei Provincial Department of Education, China (CXZZSS2025048).

About author: Jiaxin Miao, E-mail: miao_jia_xin@163.com; #Correspondence Peipei Pan, E-mail: panpeipei626@163.com

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Jiaxin Miao, Peipei Pan, Bingyu Liu, XiaowenYuan, Zijun Pan, Linsi Li, Xinyun Wang, Yuan Wang, Yongqiang Cao, Tianyuan Zhang. 2025. Research on grain supply and demand matching in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region based on ecosystem service flows. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, Doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.04.024

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