|
|
|
|
|
| Can food security and low carbon be achieved simultaneously? —An empirical analysis of the mechanisms influencing the carbon footprint of potato and corn cultivation in irrigation areas |
|
NIU Kun-yu, GUO Hui, LIU Jing#
|
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
|
|
|
|
|
摘要
1950年以来，全球灌溉农业的面积增长了两倍。灌溉农业对于粮食安全意义重大，仅占全球耕地面积的20%，却提供了全球40%的粮食产量。灌溉农业在保障安全的同时，也对全球气候变化产生了重要影响。以往的大多数研究从工程学视角利用生命周期评估法计算灌溉农业的碳足迹，而基于微观农户视角的碳足迹驱动机理研究较为缺乏。本文基于生命周期评估法与计量经济学模型(如多线性回归和结构方程模型)相结合的方法，通过调查2019年-2020年中国西南地区6个村庄(2个灌溉农业试点村和4个周边村庄作为对照)345个农户的852份玉米和马铃薯生产情况，分析了灌溉改革试点地区农作物种植碳足迹的影响因素和内在影响机制。结果显示，灌溉农业试验区的作物碳足迹显著低于非试验区。灌溉改革主要通过工程效应(实施田间灌溉渠道)、技术效应(提高新灌溉技术的采用)、管理效应(适当的灌溉运行和维护)和产量效应(灌溉改革促进了产量的提高)四个中介路径对作物碳足迹产生影响。其中，除工程效应外，其它三个中介效应都对作物种植碳足迹产生了抑制作用。其中，产量效应对降低碳足迹的影响最大，其次是管理效应，最后是技术效应。此外，研究发现种植方式、农户的个体特征和土地质量对作物碳足迹均有显著影响。这项研究对于理解农业生产中粮食安全与气候之间的关系具有重要的政策意义。
Abstract Irrigated agriculture has tripled since 1950, accounting for 20% of the global arable land and 40% of food production. Irrigated agriculture increases food security yet has controversial implications for global climate change. Most previous studies have calculated carbon emissions and their composition in irrigated areas using the engineering approach to life-cycle assessment. By combining life cycle assessment (LCA)-based carbon emissions accounting with econometric models such as multiple linear regression and structural equation modeling (SEM), we conducted an interdisciplinary study to identify the influencing factors and internal mechanisms of the carbon footprint (CFP) of smallholder crop cultivation on irrigation reform pilot areas. To this end, we investigated corn and potato production data in the 2019–2020 crop years for 852 plots of 345 rural households in six villages (two irrigation agriculture pilot villages and four surrounding villages as controls) in Southwest China. The crop CFP in the irrigation agriculture pilot areas was significantly lower than in non-reform areas. Irrigation reforms mainly impacted the crop CFP through four intermediary effects: the project (implementation of field irrigation channels), technology (improving adoption of new irrigation technologies), management (proper irrigation operation and maintenance), and yield effects. All effects inhibited the CFP, except for the project effect that promotes carbon emissions. Among them, yield increase has the greatest impact on reducing CFP, followed by management and technology effects. Furthermore, planting practices, individual characteristics, and plot quality significantly impacted the crop CFP. This study has policy implications for understanding the food security–climate nexus in the food production industry.
|
|
Received: 02 August 2022
Accepted: 29 November 2022
|
Fund: This work was financially supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Joint Research and Development Project Under the Sino–Thai Joint Committee on Science and Technology Cooperation (2017YFE0133000); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72104239); the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Public Welfare Research Institutes, China (Y2022ZK03); the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (ASTIP-IAED-2022-04).
|
| About author: NIU Kun-yu, E-mail: niukunyu@caas.cn; #Correspondence LIU Jing, E-mail: liujing02@caas.cn |
Cite this article:
NIU Kunyu, GUO Hui, LIU Jing.
2023.
Can food security and low carbon be achieved simultaneously? —An empirical analysis of the mechanisms influencing the carbon footprint of potato and corn cultivation in irrigation areas. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 22(4): 1230-1243.
|
Aderoba A. 1987. A model for selective mechanisation for the small farmer. Agricultural Systems, 25, 229–236.
Ajani E N, Mgbenka R N, Okeke M N. 2013. Use of indigenous knowledge as a strategy for climate change adaptation among farmers in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Policy. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension Economics & Sociology, 1, 23–40.
Benedetto U, Head S J, Angelini G D, Blackstone E H. 2018. Statistical primer: Propensity score matching and its alternatives. European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, 6, 1112–1117.
Braimah I, King R S, Sulemana D M. 2014. Community-based participatory irrigation management at local government level in Ghana. Commonwealth Journal of Local Governance, 15, 141–159.
Bruinsma J. 2009. The resource outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Paper presented at the FAO Expert Meeting on “How to Feed the World in 2050”, 24–26 June 2009, Rome, Italy.
Chazarra-Zapata J, Molina-Martínez J M, Cruz F P D L, Parras-Burgos D, Canales A R. 2020. How to reduce the carbon footprint of an irrigation community in the south-east of Spain by use of solar energy. Energies, 13, 2848.
Chen B Q, Baram S, Dong W Y, He W Q, Liu E K, Yan C R. 2021. Response of carbon footprint to plastic film mulch application in spring maize production and mitigation strategy. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20, 1933–1943.
Chen S, Lu F, Wang X K. 2015. Estimation of greenhouse gases emission factors for China’s nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 19, 6371–6383. (in Chinese)
Cheng S, Zheng Z, Henneberry S. 2018. Farm size and use of inputs: Explanations for the inverse productivity relationship. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2, 336–354.
Daccache A, Ciurana J S, Rodriguez Diaz J A, Knox J W. 2014. Water and energy footprint of irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 124014.
Du L, Xu L, Li Y, Liu C, Li Z, Wong J S, Lei B. 2019. China’s agricultural irrigation and water conservancy projects: A policy synthesis and discussion of emerging issues. Sustainability, 11, 7027.
Esmaeilzadeh S, Asgharipour M R, Bazrgar A B, Soufizadeh S, Karandish F. 2019. Assessing the carbon footprint of irrigated and dryland wheat with a life cycle approach in bojnourd. Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy, 4, 1–8.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2022. Land Statistics and Indicators Global, Regional and Country Trends, 2000–2020. [2022-6-1]. https://www.fao.org/food-agriculture-statistics/data-release/data-release-detail/en/c/1599856/
Fukase E, Martin W. 2020. Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply. World Development, 132, 104954.
Gany A H A, Sharma P, Singh S. 2019. Global review of institutional reforms in the irrigation sector for sustainable agricultural water management, including water users’ associations. Irrigation and Drainage, 68, 84–97.
Getahun G, Kassahun A, Hadis T, Israel P. 2022. The impact of community-based ecotourism program on livelihood of local community: Result of propensity score matching from Adaba-Dodola District, Ethiopia. Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment, 14, 15–27.
Gilbert N. 2012. One-third of our greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. Nature (London), 31, 10–12.
Grassini P, Cassman K G. 2012. High-yield maize with large net energy yield and small global warming intensity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 1074–1079.
Hanjra M A, Qureshi M E. 2010. Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy, 35, 365–377.
Heckman J, Ichimura H, Smith J, Todd P. 1998. Characterizing selection bias using experimental data. Econometrica, 66, 1017–1098.
Heidari M D, Mobli H, Omid M, Rafiee S, Jamali Marbini V, Elshout P M F, Huijbregts M A J. 2017. Spatial and technological variability in the carbon footprint of durum wheat production in Iran. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 22, 1893–1900.
Jeon J. 2015. The strengths and limitations of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon: Focusing on SEM, path analysis, or multiple regression models. International Journal of Economics and Management Engineering, 9, 1634–1642.
Karimi P, Qureshi A S, Bahramloo R, Molden D. 2012. Reducing carbon emissions through improved irrigation and groundwater management: A case study from Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 108, 52–60.
Kashyap D, Agarwal T. 2021. Carbon footprint and water footprint of rice and wheat production in Punjab, India. Agricultural Systems, 186, 102959.
Kollmuss A, Agyeman J. 2002. Mind the gap: Why do people act environmentally and what are the barriers to pro-environmental behavior? Environmental Education Research, 8, 239–260.
Lam W Y, Sim S, Kulak M, van Zelm R, Schipper A M, Huijbregts M A. 2021. Drivers of variability in greenhouse gas footprints of crop production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 315, 128121.
Li J, Feng S, Luo T, Guan Z. 2020. What drives the adoption of sustainable production technology? Evidence from the large scale farming sector in East China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 257, 120611.
Li Y, Wu W, Yang J, Cheng K, Smith P, Sun J, Pan G. 2022. Exploring the environmental impact of crop production in China using a comprehensive footprint approach. Science of the Total Environment, 824, 153898.
Liu Y, Hu W, Jetté-Nantel S, Tian Z. 2014. The influence of labor price change on agricultural machinery usage in Chinese agriculture. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2, 219–243.
MacCallum R C, Roznowski M, Necowitz L B. 1992. Model modifications in covariance structure analysis: The problem of capitalization on chance. Psychological Bulletin, 111, 490.
Martin-Gorriz B, Martínez-Alvarez V, Maestre-Valero J F, Gallego-Elvira B. 2021. Influence of the water source on the carbon footprint of irrigated agriculture: a regional study in South-Eastern Spain. Agronomy, 11, 351.
Meier J, Zabel F, Mauser W. 2018. A global approach to estimate irrigated areas - A comparison between different data and statistics. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 1119–1133.
Nagaraj D, Proust E, Todeschini A, Rulli M C, D’Odorico P. 2021. A new dataset of global irrigation areas from 2001 to 2015. Advances in Water Resources, 152, 103910.
NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 2017. Bulletin on Main Data of the Third National Agricultural Census (No. 1). Office of the Leading Group for the Third National Agricultural Census of the State Council, Beijing. p. 2022. (in Chinese)
Niero M, Ingvordsen C H, Peltonen-Sainio P, Jalli M, Lyngkjær M F, Hauschild M Z, Jørgensen R B. 2015. Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A life cycle assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios. Agricultural Systems, 136, 46–60.
Notarnicola B, Tassielli G, Renzulli P A, Lo Giudice A. 2015. Life Cycle Assessment in the agri-food sector: An overview of its key aspects, international initiatives, certification, labelling schemesand methodological issues. In: Notarnicola B, Salomone R, Petti L, Renzulli P A, Roma R, Cerutti A K, eds., Life Cycle Assessment in the Agri-food Sector: Case Studies, Methodological Issues and Best Practices. Springer International Publishing, Cham. pp. 1–56.
Please S, Amoako K Y. 1984. The World Bank’s report on accelerated development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A critique of some of the criticism. African Studies Review, 27, 47–58.
Pufahl A, Weiss C R. 2009. Evaluating the effects of farm programmes: Results from propensity score matching. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 36, 79–101.
Puma M J, Bose S, Chon S Y, Cook B I. 2015. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 24007.
Puy A, Lo Piano S, Saltelli A. 2020. Current models underestimate future irrigated areas. Geophysical Research Letters, 8, 47.
Qiao G, Zhao L, Klein K K. 2009. Water user associations in Inner Mongolia: Factors that influence farmers to join. Agricultural Water Management, 96, 822–830.
Qin R, Zhang F, Yu C, Zhang Q, Qi J, Li F. 2022. Contributions made by rain-fed potato with mulching to food security in China. European Journal of Agronomy, 133, 126435.
Philippe R, Worth D E, Lemke R L, McConkey B G, Pennock D J, Wagner-Riddle C, Desjardins R J. 2008. Estimation of N2O emissions from agricultural soils in Canada. I. Development of a country-specific methodology. Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 88, 641–654.
Shah T. 2011. Past, present, and the future of canal irrigation in India. In: India Infrastructure Report 2011: Water: Policy and Performance for Sustainable Development. OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press. pp. 70–87.
Sharma V, Singh P K, Bhakar S R, Yadav K K, Lakhawat S S, Sharma V, Yadav S. 2019. Integration of soil moisture sensor based automated drip irrigation system for okra crop. Indian Journal of Pure & Applied Biosciences, 7, 277–282.
Siebert S, Döll P. 2010. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. Journal of Hydrology, 384, 198–217.
Siebert S, Henrich V, Frenken K, Burke J. 2013. Update of the Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas to Version 5. Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, Bonn, Germany and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
Siebert S, Kummu M, Porkka M, Döll P, Ramankutty N, Scanlon B R. 2015. A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1521–1545.
Solinas S, Tiloca M T, Deligios P A, Cossu M, Ledda L. 2021. Carbon footprints and social carbon cost assessments in a perennial energy crop system: A comparison of fertilizer management practices in a Mediterranean area. Agricultural Systems, 186, 102989.
Sun J F, Peng H Y, Chen J M, Wang X M, Wei M, Li W J, Yang L X, Zhang Q Z, Wang W X, Abdelwahid M. 2016. An estimation of CO2 emission via agricultural crop residue open field burning in China from 1996 to 2013. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 2625–2631.
The State Council. 2021. The State Council Issues the Plan for Advancing Agricultural and Rural Modernization during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period. [2022-5-6]. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-02/11/content_5673082.htm (in Chinese)
Tilman D, Balzer C, Befort H. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 20260–20264.
Visser F, Dargusch P, Smith C, Grace P R. 2014. A comparative analysis of relevant crop carbon footprint calculators, with reference to cotton production in Australia. Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems, 38, 962–992.
Wang H, Chen Z, Wu X, Nie X. 2019. Can a carbon trading system promote the transformation of a low-carbon economy under the framework of the porter hypothesis? - Empirical analysis based on the PSM-DID method. Energy Policy, 129, 930–938.
Wang Z B, Wen X Y, Zhang H L, Lu X H, Chen F. 2015. Net energy yield and carbon footprint of summer corn under different N fertilizer rates in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 14, 1534–1541.
Yan M, Cheng K, Luo T, Yan Y, Pan G, Rees R M. 2015. Carbon footprint of grain crop production in China-based on farm survey data. Journal of Cleaner Production, 104, 130–138.
Yang X, Gao W, Zhang M, Chen Y, Sui P. 2014. Reducing agricultural carbon footprint through diversified crop rotation systems in the North China Plain. Journal of Cleaner Production, 76, 131–139.
Yao Z, Zhang W, Wang X, Lu M, Chadwick D, Zhang Z, Chen X. 2021. Carbon footprint of maize production in tropical/subtropical region: A case study of Southwest China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 28680–28691.
Ye X. 2017. The transformation of China’s agricultural support policy: From increasing production to enhancing competitiveness. Reform, 3, 19–34.
Zhang D, Shen J, Zhang F, Li Y E, Zhang W. 2017. Carbon footprint of grain production in China. Scientific Reports, 7, 1–11.
Zhang H F, Zhao R Q, Xiao L G, Wei C Y, Zhu R M, Feng M Y, Luo H L, Li R S. 2021. Study on agricultural water energy consumption and carbon emission under different irrigation modes. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 40, 119–126.
Zhang W, He X, Zhang Z, Gong S, Zhang Q, Zhang W, Chen X. 2018. Carbon footprint assessment for irrigated and rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) production on the Loess Plateau of China. Biosystems Engineering, 167, 75–86.
Zhang X, Pu C, Zhao X, Xue J, Zhang R, Nie Z, Zhang H. 2016. Tillage effects on carbon footprint and ecosystem services of climate regulation in a winter wheat–summer maize cropping system of the North China Plain. Ecological Indicators, 67, 821–829.
Zheng H, Ying H, Yin Y, Wang Y, He G, Bian Q, Yang Q. 2019. Irrigation leads to greater maize yield at higher water productivity and lower environmental costs: a global meta-analysis. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 273, 62–69.
Zou X, Li Y E, Li K, Cremades R, Gao Q, Wan Y, Qin X. 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural irrigation in China. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20, 295–315.
|
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
