Please wait a minute...
Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2019, Vol. 18 Issue (1): 54-61    DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(18)62110-0
Crop Science Advanced Online Publication | Current Issue | Archive | Adv Search |
Simple model based on artificial neural network for early prediction and simulation winter rapeseed yield
Gniewko Niedbała
Institute of Biosystems Engineering, Faculty of Agronomy and Bioengineering, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań 60-627, Poland
Download:  PDF (1633KB) ( )  
Export:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要  


Abstract  
The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.  The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June, in the current year, immediately before harvesting.  An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron (MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.  The model was created on the basis of meteorological data (air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.  The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland, in the southern part of the Opole region.  The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error (RAE), root mean square error (RMS), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) metrics.  An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.  The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure, which was 9.43%.  The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.  The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017 (designation by the T1-4_CY model).
Keywords:  forecast        MLP network        neural model        prediction error        sensitivity analysis        yield simulation  
Received: 08 May 2018   Accepted:
Corresponding Authors:  Correspondence Gniewko Niedba?a, Tel: +48-61-8487156, E-mail: gniewko@up.poznan.pl    

Cite this article: 

Gniewko Niedbała. 2019. Simple model based on artificial neural network for early prediction and simulation winter rapeseed yield. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 18(1): 54-61.

Bannayan M, Crout N. 1999. A stochastic modelling approach for real-time forecasting of winter wheat yield. Field Crops Research, 62, 85–95.
Bartoszek K. 2014. Usefulness of MODIS data for assessment of the growth and development of winter oilseed rape. Zemdirbyste-Agriculture, 101, 445–452.
Bussay A, van der Velde M, Fumagalli D, Seguini L. 2015. Improving operational maize yield forecasting in Hungary. Agricultural Systems, 141, 94–106.
Dar E A, Brar A S, Mishra S K, Singh K B. 2017. Simulating response of wheat to timing and depth of irrigation water in drip irrigation system using CERES-Wheat model. Field Crops Research, 214, 149–163.
Dias H B, Sentelhas P C. 2017. Evaluation of three sugarcane simulation models and their ensemble for yield estimation in commercially managed fields. Field Crops Research, 213, 174–185.
Diepenbrock W. 2000. Yield analysis of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). A review. Field Crops Research, 67, 35–49.
Domínguez J A, Kumhálová J, Novák P. 2015. Winter oilseed rape and winter wheat growth prediction using remote sensing methods. Plant, Soil and Environment, 61, 410–416.
Emamgholizadeh S, Parsaeian M, Baradaran M. 2015. Seed yield prediction of sesame using artificial neural network. European Journal of Agronomy, 68, 89–96.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2017. FAOSTAT online statistical service. [2017-10-28]. http://faostat.fao.org
Farjam A, Omid M, Akram A, Fazel Niari Z. 2014. A neural network based modeling and sensitivity analysis of energy inputs for predicting seed and grain corn yields. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 16, 767–778.
Fu D, Jiang L, Mason A S, Xiao M, Zhu L, Li L, Zhou Q, Shen C, Huang C. 2016. Research progress and strategies for multifunctional rapeseed. A case study of China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 15, 1673–1684.
Gilardelli C, Stella T, Frasso N, Cappelli G, Bregaglio S, Chiodini M E, Scaglia B, Confalonieri R. 2016. WOFOST-GTC. A new model for the simulation of winter rapeseed production and oil quality. Field Crops Research, 197, 125–132.
Grahovac J, Joki? A, Dodi? J, Vu?urovi? D, Dodi? S. 2016. Modelling and prediction of bioethanol production from intermediates and byproduct of sugar beet processing using neural networks. Renewable Energy, 85, 953–958.
Grzesiak W, B?aszczyk P, Lacroix R. 2006. Methods of predicting milk yield in dairy cows - Predictive capabilities of Wood’s lactation curve and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 54, 69–83.
Guérif M, Duke C. 1998. Calibration of the SUCROS emergence and early growth module for sugar beet using optical remote sensing data assimilation. European Journal of Agronomy, 9, 127–136.
Kantanantha N, Serban N, Griffin P. 2010. Yield and price forecasting for stochastic crop decision planning. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 15, 362–380.
Khairunniza-Bejo S, Mustaffha S, Ishak W, Ismail W. 2014. Application of artificial neural network in predicting crop yield. A review. Journal of Food Science and Engineering, 4, 1–9.
Khandelwal M, Kumar D L, Yellishetty M. 2011. Application of soft computing to predict blast-induced ground vibration. Engineering with Computers, 27, 117–125.
Klem K, Váňová M, Hajšlová J, Lancová K, Sehnalová M. 2007. A neural network model for prediction of deoxynivalenol content in wheat grain based on weather data and preceding crop. Plant, Soil and Environment, 53, 421–429.
Li F, Qiao J, Han H, Yang C. 2016. A self-organizing cascade neural network with random weights for nonlinear system modeling. Applied Soft Computing, 42, 184–193.
Nelson G C, Valin H, Sands R D, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason d’Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A, Robertson R, et al. 2014. Climate change effects on agriculture. Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3274–3279.
Park S J, Hwang C S, Vlek P L G. 2005. Comparison of adaptive techniques to predict crop yield response under varying soil and land management conditions. Agricultural Systems, 85, 59–81.
Sharma L K, Singh T N. 2017. Regression-based models for the prediction of unconfined compressive strength of artificially structured soil. Engineering with Computers, 34, 1–12.
Shearer J R, Burks T F, Fulton J P, Higgins S F. 2000. Yield prediction using a neural network classifier trained using soil landscape features and soil fertility data. Annual International Meeting, Midwest Express Center. ASAE Paper No. 001084, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. pp. 5–9.
Singh A, Imtiyaz M, Isaac R K, Denis D M. 2012. Comparison of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network for predicting sediment yield in the Nagwa agricultural watershed in Jharkhand, India. Agricultural Water Management, 104, 113–120.
StatSoft Inc. 2005. Statistica (data analysis software system), version 7.1. www.statsoft.com
Torkashvand A M, Ahmadi A, Nikravesh N L. 2017. Prediction of kiwifruit firmness using fruit mineral nutrient concentration by artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regressions (MLR). Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 16, 1634–1644.
Vandendriessche H J. 2000. A model of growth and sugar accumulation of sugar beet for potential production conditions. SUBEMOpo I. Theory and model structure. Agricultural Systems, 64, 1–19.
Veli?ka R, Marcinkevi?ien? A, Pupalien? R, Butkevi?ien? L M, Kosteckas R, ?ekanauskas S, Kriau?iūnien? Z. 2016. Winter oilseed rape and weed competition in organic farming using non-chemical weed control. Zemdirbyste-Agriculture, 103, 11–20.
Wojciechowski T, Niedba?a G, Czechlowski M, Rudowicz-Nawrocka J, Piechnik L, Niemann J. 2016. Rapeseed seeds quality classification with usage of VIS-NIR fiber optic probe and artificial neural networks. In: Proceedings - 2016 International Conference on Optoelectronics and Image Processing, ICOIP 2016. Warsaw, Poland. pp. 44–48.
Zhang G P, Patuwo E B, Michael Y H. 1998. Forecasting with artificial neural networks. The state of the art. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 35–62.
Zhou J, Tang L, Yu X. 2018. Estimating the average treatment effect of adopting stress tolerant variety on rice yield in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17, 940–948.
[1] BAI Tie-cheng, WANG Tao, ZHANG Nan-nan, CHEN You-qi, Benoit MERCATORIS. Growth simulation and yield prediction for perennial jujube fruit tree by integrating age into the WOFOST model[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2020, 19(3): 721-734.
[2] XING Hui-min, XU Xin-gang, LI Zhen-hai, CHEN Yi-jin, FENG Hai-kuan, YANG Gui-jun, CHEN Zhao-xia. Global sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model for winter wheat under different water treatments based on the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16(11): 2444-2458.
[3] LI Gan-qiong, XU Shi-wei, LI Zhe-min, SUN Yi-guo , DONG Xiao-xia. Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China[J]. >Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2012, 12(4): 674-683.
No Suggested Reading articles found!