|
|
|
|
|
| Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China |
| YANG Jie, XIONG Wei, YANG Xiao-guang, CAO Yang , FENG Ling-zhi |
1、College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R.China
2、Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
3、International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management Program, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
4、Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville FL 32600-0570, USA |
|
|
|
摘要 Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a significant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which confirmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the significant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China’s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identified as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
Abstract Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a significant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which confirmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the significant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China’s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identified as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.
|
|
Received: 06 September 2013
Accepted:
|
| Fund: This research was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951504, 2012CB95590004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41171093), and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2012BAC19B01). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
XIONG Wei, Tel: +86-10-82105985, E-mail: xiongwei8848@hotmail.com
E-mail: xiongwei8848@hotmail.com
|
Cite this article:
YANG Jie, XIONG Wei, YANG Xiao-guang, CAO Yang , FENG Ling-zhi.
2014.
Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(7): 1586-1598.
|
| References Bindi M, Olesen J E. 2011. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change. Regional Environmental Change, 11(Suppl.1), S151-S158. Chen C, Wang E L, Yu Q, Zhang Y Q. 2010. Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961-2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain Climatic Change, 100, 3-4. Chen R S, Lu S H, Kang E, Yang J P, Ji X B. 2006. Estimating daily global radiation using two types of revised models in China. Energy Conversion and Management, 47, 865-878 Chinese National Soil Survey Office. 1998. China Soil. China Agricultural Press, Beijing. pp. 2-3 (in Chinese) FAOSTAT. 2009. FAO statistic database. [2013-4-5] http:// faostat.fao.org Gao J, Liu Y S. 2011. Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China. Applied Geography, 31, 476-482. Gu L H. 2003. Comment on “Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields”. Science, 300, 1505b. Huang M, Zhang W, Jiang L, Zou Y. 2013. Impact of temperature changes on early-rice productivity in a subtropical environment of China. Field Crop Research, 146, 10-15 Jones J W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H, Boote K J, Batchelor W D, Hunt L A, Wilkens P W, Singh U, Gijsman A J, Ritchie J T. 2003. The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 235-265 Kim H Y, Ko J, Kang S, Tenhunen J. 2013. Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate. Global Change Biology, 19, 548-562 Knox J W, Matthews R B, Wassmann R. 2000. Using a crop/soil simulation model and GIS techniques to assess methane emissions from rice fields in Asia. III. Databases. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 58, 179-199 Li S, Wheeler T, Challinor A, Lin E D, Ju H, Xu Y L. 2010. The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150, 1412-1419 Liang F, Xia X A. 2005. Long-term trends in solar radiation and the associated climatic factors over China for 1961- 2000. Annales Geophysicae, 23, 2425-2432 Liu Y, Wang E L, Yang X G, Wang J. 2010. Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biology, 16, 2287-2299 Lobel D B, Field C B. 2007. Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letter, 2, doi:10.1088/1748- 9326/2/1/014002 Lobell D B. 2007. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 145, 229-238 Lobell D B, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B. 2011. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate change, 1, 42-45 Peng S B, Tang Q Y, Zou Y B. 2009. Current status and challenges of rice production in China. Plant Production Science, 12, 3-8 Peng S B, Huang J L, Sheehy J E, Laza R C, Visperas R M, Zhong X H, Centeno G S, Khush G S, Cassman K G. 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 9971-9975 Pohlert T. 2004. Use of empirical global radiation models for maize growth simulation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 126, 47-58 Pray C, Nagarajan L, Li L P. 2011. Potential impact of biotechnology on adaptation of agriculture to climate change: the case of drought tolerant rice breeding in Asia. Sustainability, 10, 1723-1741 Ramanathan V, Chung C, Kim D, Bettge T, Buja L, Kiehl J T, Washington W M, Fu Q, Sikka D R, Wild M. 2005. Atmospheric brown clouds: impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 5326-5333 Rawls W J, Brakensiek D L, Saxton K E. 1982. Estimation of soil water properties. Transactions of the ASAE, 25, 47-58 Robert F, Werner H, Stephanie S. 2011. Irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change - a biophysical and economic appraisal for Swiss maize production. Climatic Change, 105, 509-528 Schlenker W, Roberts M J. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 15594-15598 Sheehy J E, Mitchell P L, Ferrer A B. 2006. Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: Models and correlations can give difference estimates. Field Crops Research, 98, 151-156 Stanhill G, Cohen S. 2001. Global dimming. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 107, 225-278 Sun W, Huang Y. 2011. Global warming over the period 1961-2008 did not increase high-temperature stress but did reduce low-temperature stress in irrigated rice across China Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 1193- 1201. Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Y. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 82-92. Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Liu J Y, Zhang Z. 2008. Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Research, 38, 83-94 Tao F L, Zhang Z, Shi W, Liu Y, Xiao D, Zhang S, Zhu Z, Wang M, Liu F. 2013. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite Global Change Biology, 19, 3200-3209.Waha K, Müller C, Bondeau A, Dietrich J P, Kurukulasuriya P, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H. 2013. Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environmental Change, 23, 130-143 Wassmann R, Jagadish S V K, Sumfleth K, Pathak H, Howell G, Ismail A, Serraj R, Redona E, Singh R K, Heuer S. 2009. Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Advance of Agronomy, 102, 91-133 Welch J R, Vincent J R, Auffhameer M, Moya P F, Dobermann A, Dawe D. 2010. Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 14562-14567 Xie X J, Li B B, Li Y X. 2009. High temperature harm at flowering in Yangtze River basin in recent 55 years. Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 25, 28-32 (in Chinese) Xiong W, Conway D, Lin E, Holman I. 2009. Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production. Climatic Research, 40, 23-35 Xiong W, Holman I, Conway D, Lin E, Li Y. 2008. A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies. Ecological Modelling, 213, 365-80 Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E D, Conway D, Li Y, Wu W B. 2012. Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China. Environmental Research Letter, 7, 044014. Yang X, Lin E D, Ma S M, Ju H, Guo L P, Xiong W, Li Y, Xu Y L. 2007. Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Climatic Change, 84, 45-58 Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E, Yokozawa M, Zhang J. 2007. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China. Climatic Change, 80, 3-4 Zhang S, Tao F. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 165-176 Zhang T Y, Huang Y. 2012. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 92, 1643-1652 Zhang T Y, Zhu J, Wassman R. 2010. Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: An empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150, 1128-1137 |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
