基于优化MaxEnt模型及土地利用类型的中国薄壳山核桃适生区预测评价

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.14.012

中国农业科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (14): 3147-3161.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2026.14.012

基于优化MaxEnt模型及土地利用类型的中国薄壳山核桃适生区预测评价

赵宁¹(), 张计育², 王锐³, 原双进³, 陈金辉⁴, 李莎莎¹, 陈智坤¹()

¹ 陕西省西安植物园（陕西省植物研究所）/陕西省秦岭生态安全重点实验室，西安 710061
² 江苏省中国科学院植物研究所，南京 210014
³ 陕西省林业科技推广与国际项目管理中心，西安 710082
⁴ 安康市汉滨区林业局，陕西安康 725000

收稿日期:2025-08-17 接受日期:2026-04-08 出版日期:2026-07-16 发布日期:2026-07-21
通信作者:
陈智坤，E-mail：zhikunchen@xab.ac.cn
联系方式: 赵宁，E-mail：zn1002618336@xab.ac.cn。
基金资助:
陕西省科学院揭榜挂帅项目(2024K-04)

Prediction and Evaluation of Suitable Habitats for Carya illinoinensis in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model and Land Use Types

ZHAO Ning¹(), ZHANG JiYu², WANG Rui³, YUAN ShuangJin³, CHEN JinHui⁴, LI ShaSha¹, CHEN ZhiKun¹()

¹ Xi'an Botanical Garden of Shaanxi Province (Institute of Botany of Shaanxi Province)/Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Qinling Ecological Security, Xi'an 710061
² Institute of Botany, Jiangsu Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210014
³ Shaanxi Provincial Forestry Science and Technology Promotion and International Project Management Center, Xi'an 710082
⁴ Ankang Hanbin District Forestry Bureau, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi

Received:2025-08-17 Accepted:2026-04-08 Published:2026-07-16 Online:2026-07-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】近年来，薄壳山核桃（Carya illinoinensis）作为特色农业经济坚果树种在我国多省广泛种植。通过对我国薄壳山核桃适生区和土地资源的研究与预测，拟为薄壳山核桃产业的科学布局提供依据。【方法】首先，基于优化后的MaxEnt模型（最大熵模型）对中国167个薄壳山核桃种植样点的气候、地形和土壤等29个环境变量进行分析，筛选出主导环境因子，预测当前气候情景下薄壳山核桃在中国的潜在适生区。其次，通过叠加中国林区分布数据提取，预测薄壳山核桃实际可利用面积。【结果】当特征组合（FC）=特征函数组合LQ、调控倍率（RM）=2时MaxEnt模型最优，此时受试者工作曲线AUC值为0.93，优化后模型的TSS均值为0.7655，证实了优化后的MaxEnt模型具有极高的可靠性与准确度；薄壳山核桃适生区主要受气温和海拔的影响，主要环境因子为最冷月最低温（bio6），其次是海拔、等温性（bio3）、温度季节性（bio4），最适宜薄壳山核桃生长阈值范围分别为最冷月最低温-5—5 ℃、海拔1 000 m以下、等温性15—30或50—57、温度季节性400—1 000；中国有10个省份为薄壳山核桃的中高适生区，中适生区面积达9 208.69×10⁴ hm²（占总国土面积的10%），高适生区面积达6 411.22 10⁴ hm²（占总国土面积的7%）。通过比照中国林区分布数据，我国薄壳山核桃实际可利用面积达1 360.53×10⁴ hm²。【结论】薄壳山核桃在我国主要分布在安徽、湖北、河南、江苏、湖南、江西、浙江、云南中部、陕西中南部及山东西南部等省份。叠加中国林地分布数据后实际可利用面积缩小，从省域尺度来看，湖北省林地高适生区面积最大，达343.35×10⁴ hm²；湖南省次之，为305.57×10⁴hm²；江西省和安徽省分别以219.81×10⁴和161.83×10⁴ hm²位列第三、第四，是薄壳山核桃重要的潜在主产区。结合优化MaxEnt模型及土地利用类型，可有效预测和科学评价中国薄壳山核桃适生区，为中国薄壳山核桃发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 薄壳山核桃, MaxEnt模型, 适生区预测, 环境变量

Abstract:

【Objective】Carya illinoinensis (C. illinoinensis) (Pecan), as a characteristic agricultural and economic nut tree species, has been widely cultivated in multiple provinces across China in recent years. This study aimed to provide a scientific basis for the scientific layout of the C. illinoinensis industry by investigating and predicting its suitable habitats and land resources in China.【Method】First, based on the optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, 29 environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil factors from 167 C. illinoinensis cultivation sites in China were analyzed. Then the dominant environmental factors were screened out, and the potential suitable habitats of C. illinoinensis in China under the current climate scenario were predicted. Second, the available cultivation area for C. illinoinensis was extracted and predicted by overlaying the forest distribution data of China.【Result】The MaxEnt model performed optimally with Feature Class (FC)=Linear-Quadratic (LQ) and Regularization Multiplier (RM) = 2. The AUC value of the ROC curve was 0.93, and the mean TSS of the optimized model was 0.7655, demonstrating that the optimized MaxEnt model exhibits exceptionally high reliability and accuracy. The suitable habitats of C. illinoinensis were mainly influenced by temperature and altitude. The primary dominant environmental factor was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), followed by altitude, isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4). The corresponding suitable threshold ranges were as follows: -5 ℃ to 5 ℃ for the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), below 1 000 m for altitude, 15-30 and 50-57 for isothermality (bio3), and 400-1 000 for temperature seasonality (bio4). Ten provinces in China were identified as moderately to highly suitable habitats for C. illinoinensis, with a medium-suitable area of 9 208.69×10⁴ hm²_,accounting for 10% of China's total land area, and the high suitable area of 6 411.22×10⁴ hm², accounting for 7% of China's total land area. By overlaying with the forest distribution data of China, the actual available cultivation area for C. illinoinensis in China was 1 360.53×10⁴ hm².【Conclusion】In China, C. illinoinensis has potentially suitable habitats in Anhui, Hubei, Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, the central part of Yunnan, south-central Shaanxi, and southwestern Shandong. After overlaying the suitable habitat map with China's forest land distribution data, the actual usable area was significantly reduced. At the provincial scale, Hubei Province had the largest area of highly suitable forest land, reaching 343.35×10⁴ hm², followed by Hunan Province with 305.57×10⁴ hm². Jiangxi and Anhui ranked third and fourth, with 219.81×10⁴ and 161.83×10⁴ hm², respectively, making them important potential main producing areas for pecans. Combining the optimized MaxEnt model with land use types can effectively predict and scientifically evaluate the suitable areas for pecans in China, thereby providing a scientific basis for the development of the pecan industry in China.

Key words: Carya illinoinensis, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat prediction, environmental variables

赵宁, 张计育, 王锐, 原双进, 陈金辉, 李莎莎, 陈智坤. 基于优化MaxEnt模型及土地利用类型的中国薄壳山核桃适生区预测评价[J]. 中国农业科学, 2026, 59(14): 3147-3161.

ZHAO Ning, ZHANG JiYu, WANG Rui, YUAN ShuangJin, CHEN JinHui, LI ShaSha, CHEN ZhiKun. Prediction and Evaluation of Suitable Habitats for Carya illinoinensis in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model and Land Use Types[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2026, 59(14): 3147-3161.

图/表 9

图1

表1

环境影响因子"

环境变量 Environment variable	代号 Code	环境因子名称 Name of environmental factor	单位 Unit	贡献率 Rate of contribution (%)
气候变量 Weather variable	Bio1	年均温 Mean annual temperature	℃	4.7
	Bio2	平均气温日较差 Mean diurnal temperature range	℃	2.9
	Bio3*	等温性(bio2 /bioc7)*100 Isothermal property ratio	-	1.6
	Bio4*	温度季节性*100 Standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature	-	0.8
	Bio5	最暖月最高温 Max temperature of the warmest month	℃	0.5
	Bio6*	最冷月最低温 Minimum temperature of the coldest month	℃	20.7
	Bio7	气温年较差(bio5-bio6) Temperature annual range	℃	0.4
	Bio8	最湿季均温 Mean temperature of the wettest quarter	℃	1.0
	Bio9	最干季均温 Mean temperature of the direst quarter	℃	0.9
	Bio10	最热季均温 Mean temperature of the warmest quarter	℃	0.7
	Bio11	最冷季均温 Mean temperature of the coldest quarter	℃	0.4
	Bio12	年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm	2.1
	Bio13	最湿月降水量 Precipitation of the wettest month	mm	0.3
	Bio14*	最干月降水量 Precipitation of the driest month	mm	43.7
	Bio15*	降水季节性变动 Precipitation seasonality	—	1.5
	Bio16	最湿季降水量 Precipitation of the wettest quarter	mm	0.1
	Bio17	最干季降水量 Precipitation of the driest quarter	mm	2.2
	Bio18	最暖季降水量 Precipitation of the warmest quarter	mm	0.2
	Bio19	最冷季降水量 Precipitation of the coldest quarter	mm	0.5
地形变量 Landform variable	Dem*	海拔Altitude	m	3.1
	Slope*	坡度Slope	—	4.0
	Aspect*	坡向Aspect	—	1.3
土壤变量 Soil variable	T_Clay*	顶层黏土含量Topsoil clay content	%	1.3
	T_Gravel*	顶层碎石体积百分比Topsoil gravel content (% by volume)	%	1.2
	T_PH*	顶层酸碱度（-log（H⁺））Topsoil pH（-log（H⁺））	—	0.8
	T_Sand*	顶层沙含量Topsoil sand content	%	0.3
	T_Silt*	顶层淤泥含量Topsoil silt content	%	2.4
	T_Oc*	顶层有机碳含量Topsoil organic carbon content	%	0.2
	T_Ref_Bulk	顶层土壤容重Topsoil bulk density	kg·dm^-3	0.1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

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基于优化MaxEnt模型及土地利用类型的中国薄壳山核桃适生区预测评价

Prediction and Evaluation of Suitable Habitats for Carya illinoinensis in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model and Land Use Types

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环境因子 Climate variable	贡献率 Percent contribution (%)	随机分布重要性 Permutation importance (%)
Bio6	82.0	74.0
Dem	7.1	10.5
T_Silt	2.9	0.5
Bio3	2.2	4.8
Bio15	1.6	2.2
Bio4	1.3	6.2
Slope	1.2	0.2
Aspect	0.4	0.1
T_Clay	0.4	0.2
T_PH	0.3	0.3
T_Gravel	0.3	0.3
T_Sand	0.3	0.7
Bio14	0	0
T_Oc	0	0

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