关键词: 粮食产量, 波动性, 灰色关联, 河北省

Abstract:

【Objective】 The changes of food production in Hebei Province and the causes of fluctuations in grain yield were studied, in order to guide the production of food security in Hebei Province and provide a scientific and theoretical method. 【Method】 EMD and residual method were used comprehensively to separate food production and its influencing factors of Hebei, and a gray correlation method based on the results compared with paired comparison to determine matrix was used to study the causes of food production fluctuation. 【Result】 The characteristics influencing the fluctuations of grain production in Hebei Province are that natural resources and the amplitude of various index is between -113.43-34.38; the amplitude of various indicators of policy and economy capacity is -34.59-31.79, which has large fluctuation in intensity; the amplitude of investment of fixed assets is between -17.17-10.52, which has less intensity fluctuations. Index of variable input is between -11.39-9.16. Disaster area, the effective irrigated area, crop acreage, support agricultural production and agricultural business costs, precipitation, chemical fertilizer, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers are 6 controlling factors. The degrees of impacts were as follows: 19.08%, 17.8%, 12.84%, 11.03%, 10.28% and 7.79%, to represent the main elements of fluctuations in farmland productivity. 【Conclusion】 Results showed that the integrated use of EMD method and gray correlation method based on the results compared with paired comparison to determine matrix method, has overcome the shortcomings of the traditional method which can be used for qualitative analysis. It is a new scientific theory and method of objectively reflecting the real fluctuations of food production in Hebei Province, which can be used to quantitatively study the degree of impacting factors.

Key words: food production, volatility, gray correlation, Hebei Province