1985—2015年福建省农牧系统磷素流动特征及影响因素

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.07.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】探明福建省农牧系统磷素流动时间变化特征及其影响因素,为实施农牧系统养分资源综合管理和推进农业绿色发展提供科学依据。【方法】 通过整理福建省1985—2015年统计年鉴中农牧业产品活动数据和补充文献中农牧业产品养分参数,结合实地调研,使用NUFER (nutrient flows in food chain, environment and resources use) 模型,定量估算1985—2015年福建省种植业和养殖业磷素流动账户平衡、利用率与损失变化特征,明确影响农牧生产系统磷素流动的主要因素。【结果】 1985—2015年,福建省农牧生产系统磷素输入总量由63.1 Gg升至196.2 Gg,主要输入项为化肥投入及饲料进口,其中种植业单位面积化肥磷投入量由27.8 kg·hm^-2逐渐上升并稳定于60.4 kg·hm^-2,受福建省种植业及养殖业规模和结构变化影响,本地饲料磷供应量由3.33 Gg降至1.65 Gg,饲料磷进口数量由20.7 Gg增至70.2 Gg;农牧系统输出端,磷素输出总量由45.0 Gg增至90.9 Gg,主要输出项为作物主产品和粪尿损失,其中作物主产品变化较小,由24.3 Gg增至26.7 Gg,粪尿损失磷增加较多,由1.44 Gg增至25.8 Gg;在农牧系统内部,磷素的主要去向为土壤累积,且逐年上升,由18.1 Gg升至106 Gg,种植业磷素利用率（PUE_c）由36.1%降至16.6%,农牧系统的磷素利用率（PUE_c+a）变化趋势与PUE_c相仿,逐渐下降并最终维持于15.0%,同时单位农牧产品磷损失由0.3 kg P·kg^-1逐渐上升并稳定于1.3 kg P·kg^-1。在经济发展和种植结构方面,当人均生产总值（GDP）<1.1万元时,GDP与化肥磷投入数量呈显著正相关,当GDP<1.5万元时,与单位农牧产品磷损失之间呈显著正相关,人均GDP<1.3万元时,与PUE_c呈显著负相关;经济作物播种面积占比与单位农牧产品磷损失、化肥磷投入之间呈极显著正相关,与PUE_c之间呈极显著负相关。【结论】 当前福建省种植业结构特征为经济作物播种面积占比较高,同时单位面积化肥磷投入量较大,养殖业畜禽粪尿循环不充分,导致单位农牧产品磷损失较多,同时磷素利用率偏低。因此,控制磷肥的施用量、增强农牧业废弃物资源化利用程度,将是提高福建省农牧系统磷素利用率,促进农牧业可持续绿色发展的保障。

关键词: 磷素, NUFER模型, 磷素利用率, 农牧系统, 经济作物占比

Abstract: 【Objective】The objective of this study is to determine the temporal changes and influencing factors of phosphorus (P) flows in the crop-livestock system of Fujian Province, and to provide a scientific reference for integrated nutrient management and green development of agriculture.【Method】Using a coupled NUFER (nutrient flows in food chain, environment and resources use) model, data were collected and sorted from statistical yearbooks, literatures, and field investigations from 1985 to 2015 to quantitatively estimate the balance, use efficiency and loss characteristics of P flow in the crop-livestock system of Fujian Province. 【Result】The total P input in crop-livestock production system increased from 63.1 to 196.2 Gg in Fujian Province from 1985 to 2015. The main P format inputs were fertilizer and feed import. The amount of per unit area of P fertilizer input in crop system increased gradually from 27.8 to 60.4 kg·hm^-2. Due to the influence of scale and structure change of crop-livestock system in Fujian Province, local feed supply decreased from 3.33 to 1.65 Gg, while the feed import increased from 20.7 to 70.2 Gg. From the output perspective, total P increased from 45.0 to 90.9 Gg, mainly including crop main product and animal manure loss. P uptake of crop main products changed slightly (only from 24.3 to 26.7 Gg), while the P loss in animal manure increased significantly from 1.44 to 25.8 Gg. Soil accumulation is the main loss pathway of P in crop-livestock system, which increased year by year from 18.1 to 106 Gg. P use efficiency in crop production system (PUE_c) decreased from 36.1% to 16.6%, and the change trend of P use efficiency in crop-livestock system (PUE_c+a) was similar to that of PUE_c, which gradually decreased and eventually remained at 15.0%. In the same time, the unit P loss of crop-livestock products increased gradually from 0.3 to 1.3 kg P·kg^-1. In terms of economic development and planting structure, there was a significant positive correlation between per capita GDP and fertilizer input when the per capita GDP was less than 11 000 yuan. When per capita GDP was less than 15 000 yuan, there was a significant positive correlation between per capita GDP and unit P loss of crop-livestock products, but there was a significantly negative correlation between per capita GDP and PUE_c when per capita GDP was less than 13 000 yuan. The proportion of cash crops planting area was significantly and positively correlated with the unit P loss of crop-livestock products and P input of fertilizer, and it was significantly negatively correlated with PUE_c.【Conclusion】At present, the cash crops planting area is relatively high, which is one of the structural characteristics of crop system in Fujian Province. At the same time, the unit area quantity of P input by fertilizer is large, circulation of animal manure is inadequate, which probably lead to more unit P loss in crop-livestock products, and low P use efficiency. Therefore, controlling the application amount of phosphate fertilizer and enhancing the utilization level in crop-livestock waste resources will be the guarantee in improving P use efficiency and promoting agriculture sustainable green development in Fujian Province.

Key words: phosphorus, NUFER model, phosphorus use efficiency, crop-livestock system, proportion of cash crops

刘东晖,张世昌,杨静,黄梦元,吴良泉. 1985—2015年福建省农牧系统磷素流动特征及影响因素[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(7): 1419-1431.

DongHui LIU,ShiChang ZHANG,Jing YANG,MengYuan HUANG,LiangQuan WU. Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Phosphorus Flows in the Crop-Livestock System of Fujian Province from 1985 to 2015[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(7): 1419-1431.

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参考文献 44

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作物种类<break/>Crop	收获可（食）用部分Harvest edible parts		收获不可（食）用部分Harvest non-edible parts
作物种类<break/>Crop	百分比Percent (%)	磷含量P content (%)	百分比Percent (%)	磷含量P content (%)
（干）稻谷Rice	53	0.300	47	0.130
（干）小麦Wheat	48	0.370	52	0.080
（干）油料Oil plant	56	0.305	44	0.163
（鲜）薯类Tuber crop	67	0.020	33	0.045
（鲜）甘蔗Sugarcane	77	0.014	23	0.046
（干）烟叶Tobacco	38	0.184	62	0.169
（干）茶Tea	100	0.222	—	—
（鲜）水果Fruit	100	0.020	—	—
（鲜）蔬菜Vegetable	100	0.039	—	—
（鲜）青饲料Forage	100	0.080	—	—
（鲜）绿肥Green manure	—	—	100	0.057

畜禽种类<break/>Livestock	饲养周期<break/>Feeding period (d)	粪便日排泄量及其磷含量Daily excrement and P content		尿液日排泄量及磷含量Daily urine and P content
畜禽种类<break/>Livestock	饲养周期<break/>Feeding period (d)	排泄量Excretion (kg·d^-1)	磷含量P content (%)	排泄量Excretion (kg·d^-1)	磷含量P content (%)
肉牛Beef	>365	18.00	0.095	9.0	0.017
奶牛Cattle	>365	18.00	0.095	9.0	0.017
羊Sheep	243	1.50	0.216	0.5	0.021
猪Pig	198	2.00	0.245	3.0	0.022
兔Rabbit	180	0.08	0.296	—	—
肉鸡Broiler	55	0.09	0.413	—	—
蛋鸡Layer	>365	0.15	0.413	—	—
鸭、鹅<break/>Duck, Goose	60	0.17	0.289	—	—

	鲜重<break/>Fresh weight<break/>(kg)	畜禽身体划分Partitioning of animal body (%)			磷含量P content (%)
	鲜重<break/>Fresh weight<break/>(kg)	可食用部分 Edible part	骨头<break/>Bone	其他部分<break/>Other parts	可食用部分<break/>Edible part	骨头<break/>Bone	其他部分<break/>Other parts
猪Pig	90.00	50	13	37	0.18	3.3	0.07
牛Cattle	477.30	45	20	35	0.17	4.2	0.01
羊Sheep	35.00	55	24	21	0.17	5.6	0.15
禽Poultry	2.04	65	20	15	0.16	2.0	0.01
兔Rabbit	1.75	50	7.5	42.5	0.17	4.0	0.21
蛋Egg	—	90	—	10	0.21	—	0.20
奶Milk	—	100	—	—	0.09	—	—

项目Item	参数Parameter (%)
淋洗参数Leaching parameter	0.6
径流参数Runoff parameter	1.5
侵蚀参数Erosion parameter	7.2