关键词: 持续增温, 小麦产量, 气候区, 增温时段, 增温幅度, Meta-analysis

Abstract: 【Objective】Global warming has been recognized as a key impact factor for wheat growth and development. However, the responses of wheat growth and development to warming are still remain unclear, and have not been systemically quantified in different climate regions of main wheat producing area in China. Therefore, there is a special need to systematically quantify the magnitude and mechanisms of field warming impacts on wheat yield and growing period at different periods in a day and the main climatic regions. 【Method】This study collected 21 published literatures between 1990-2017 from nationwide with the effects of field warming on wheat yield and development. In addition, the Meta-analysis was used to systemically quantify the magnitude of field warming during entire wheat growing season on wheat yield and growing period at different climate regions. 【Result】 The results indicated that: (1) Field warming (0-3 °C) significantly increased the wheat yield, thousand kernel weight, and grain number per spike under subtropical monsoon climate whose the average growth rates were 8.2%, 6.3%, and 4.7%, respectively, and significantly increased the wheat yield, spike numbers, and grain number per spike under temperate monsoon climate whose the average growth rates were 6.8%, 3.9% and 5.5%; By contrary, field warming (0-3 °C) reduced the wheat yield, thousand kernel weight and grain number per spike under temperate continental climate whose the average change rates were 10.2%, 5.9%, and 8.3%, respectively. Specifically, the wheat yield significantly were increased (8.5%) by 0-2 °C of field warming and were not significantly changed by 2-3 °C of field warming under subtropical monsoon climate; The increment of wheat yield by 2-3 °C of field warming was 14.5% under temperate monsoon climate; On the contrary, wheat yield were significantly reduced by 10.1% and 15.9% by 0-2 °C and 2-3 °C of field warming under temperate continental climate, respectively. (2) The entire duration of wheat growing period was shorten by 3.3% and 7.1% by field warming (0-3 °C) under subtropical monsoon climate and temperate monsoon climate, but was not changed apparently under temperate continental climate. At the same time, the duration of wheat reproductive period in temperate monsoon climate and temperate continental climate were not changed significantly, while the duration of reproductive growth in subtropical monsoon climate was increased significantly (8.7%). (3) On the whole, though the effects of warming period in a day on wheat yield and development were varied among different climatic regions, the wheat yield were significantly increased by 10.5% and 15.0% under 0-2 °C and 2-3 °C of night warming within all climatic regions. 【Conclusion】 The effect magnitude of field warming on wheat yield and growing period was varied under different climatic regions and the period in a day. The findings of this study could provide scientific base for rational optimization and arrangement of cropping system within the main producing areas in China under new climate change situations.

Key words: continuous warming, wheat yield, climatic regions, warming period, warming degree, Meta-analysis