关键词: 耕地, 动态变化过程, 差异分析, 地理计量模型

Abstract: 【Objective】Land resource is a carrier of social economic activities, cropland is the link and bridge between human and environment, also is the most important part of the land system. It is helpful to improve the capacity to predict cropland change by understanding and mastering cropland dynamic change process and difference, and it is also beneficial to promote the scientific decision-making and intensive utilization of cropland, thus making agricultural land resource sustainable and social economy developing harmoniously.【Method】The research principally adopted the techniques of remote sensing and GIS, and used land use dynamic degree model, geographical econometric model including composite index of the degree of land use extension and transfer matrix of land use for the analysis of cropland dynamic change and difference in Anji of Zhejing Province in the two periods of 1998 to 2003 and 2003 to 2009. 【Result】The dynamic change process of cropland in research area was complex. The main types of land use transfer were irrigated land and arid land. From the point of types transfer, the main directions of cropland were forest land, construction land and garden land; the process of cropland transfer from 2003 to 2009 was smoother and steadier than the process from 1998 to 2003, and no dramatic changes were occurred. The types and area of the land resource which converted to cropland was very unitary and the area was also limited. All the types of land in the quantity and spatial distribution from 1998 to 2003 were stabler; the magnitude of cropland changes from 2003 to 2009 was lower in activity, so after 2003, cropland in the extent of utilization and range was stabler. 【Conclusion】The cropland dynamic change process and its characteristics are influenced directly by industry structure and land policy adjustment in the research area. Research methods used in this paper are operable and practical which have reflected the cropland dynamic change process and characteristics of space-time structure objectively, and have provided an idea for space-time evolution research of cropland.

Key words: cropland, dynamic process, difference analysis, geographical econometric models